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Wonder if relative to averages we will have seen the worse of the heat after early next week. Have to ponder the possibilities for later August and September. The driest part of the year waits ahead for us, but on the other hand you have to respect the the odds of tropical moisture coming our way, whether directly or indirectly.

Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action, and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling, but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently.

Never easy at our latitude and inland location. I noted a lack of forecasts by many here on this system, too much uncertainty. . .25 inches is not going to cut it on the Euro . I am not so sure about the Mount Holly's rainfall forecast. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we`re currently thinking that we`ll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. But, here is the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2020 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Significant shorter range model differences remain with an Eastern Seaboard coastal low whose potential development is being monitored by NHC. Recent GFS and to a lesser extent GEFS runs have been the most progressive with this low into the Northeast this weekend. Recent UKMET runs have been the most developed. While plausible, the WPC product suite was primarily derived instead from a blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean that offers good continuity for this coastal low and also seems to provide a good forecast starting point and continuity for the rest of the lower 48 days 3-7.

Do you feel the greatest impact and flood threat is to our far NE over Long Island and New England? Looks like dangerous rip tides, high surf, high tidal flooding and poor beach weather to say the least on the NJ and Delaware beaches Friday to Saturday nigh, . Also of note, some very warm SSTs East of VA .

Since BAMM released this two days ago recent data supports extreme heat arriving in our area at the end of next week, some of the height forecasts are portraying a run to the century mark.

Finally last night got hit with a rather prolonged heavy rain event along with a a STW for my area. Seems the outflow boundaries from the storm complex in Se PA spawned new storms to my NW and then these storms , or rather a large complex, dropped Southward. Very impressive rain and wind event. Even post rainfall the winds were very gusty. Rain gauge at home was at 1.75 inches. At least the grass crowns are saved for the next round of heat and will be nice not to have to water for a while.

I like the idea of 80 degree surf zone temps by late July off Southern NJ and Delaware beaches. Overall a hot month looking at some of the data. Set the path for a cat 3 later in the season.

Hey CAPE , if you can share your thoughts on a good product I really appreciate it . Thinking about applying something like to my front lawn. FYI ., my front lawn has really turned brown, missed all the rain you have received. Lower half has gone dormant. Going to be a tough summer rain wise I think.

Another + PNA

Heat at long range so far has been muted in the short term, while areas far to the North bust through 90. SE Canada for example. Some associate this pattern with the cold pool in the Atlantic , looks different than other years recently. As the Atlantic SSTs change I would imagine the sensible weather around here will change also. I know soil moisture is very low. Ground very hard around the property, as some grasses ( fescue ) going dormant already.

I read you can also steak them just like tomato plants, along with pruning . FYI https://www.theartofdoingstuff.com/youve-been-growing-your-zucchini-all-wrong/

Wonder if the GFS had a fall out with verification scores. Pretty dry overall next 10 days .

If the Euro seasonal for July is correct wonder if during the transition this this pattern, as well as during oscillations, we share in more frequent moisture, and frontal passages during the this coming July.

Incredible amounts for sure, the WPC seems to concur to a degree, and trend the last 6 days has been to bring some heavier rains a bit further North and East. Middle of country really drying out, and wondering whether that heat comes up and over later in the period.

Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? Total speculation, but wondering if there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends during the summer . And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East. Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts.

Also wondering the effects of soil moisture and feedback for later in the season. Those areas with the highest QFP at times can be the breeding grounds for very hot weather for our areas, however, maybe this summer the heat makes it approach and greatest impact from going up and over and arriving on NW flow events. Any thoughts ? Of course you also have to look at the long lasting warm SSTs in the Western Atlantic, that seem to want to extend summer into mid October, such as in recent years. On a related Atlantic SST note, wondering when the flip happens closer to the coast as the Atlantic is warming in general. The surf zone is warming but has been slow to respond, maybe the long East fetch brings the warmer waters closer the next 8 days.

@bluewave Any comment on this occurrence regarding the QBO? A great read throughout and thought provoking. A rather complex event and a evolving one as well. Seems the implications "could" be wide ranging for the summer into the winter .

Do you think there is a risk of ridge runners and severe weather moving NW to SE in such a pattern ? Looks interesting at this time frame, even though it is way out there.

Do you water your lawn or other areas? I tried last year watering the lawn and lost my ambition and suffered the consequences. This year I will let it go dormant and hope rains visit at least to keep the crown alive so in the Fall it may bounce back. I have 3/4 acres far too much to water. Even the front with 1/3 acre is too much to consistently water correctly. And yes, the rainfall forecasts have trended drier.

This morning was 57 here. What I wouldn't give for a morning like this in mid August.

I also thought about this as I mowed the lawn this glorious morning. I can tell the sun and temps are stressing the cooler fescue grass out rather quickly. Everything looks great but the last heatwave did in some on the front lawn. Now the focus is keeping crab grass away and weeds in general, focus on the flowers beds and the garden. Then plan for the eventual over seed in early Sept. Last October the front looked great. Good advice regarding seed from @C.A.P.E. The never ending cycle. Wonder what a neutral or even a Nina Sept QFP will look like around these parts, LOL probably a brown and dry look. Unless the tropics make multiple visits.

From Don S. tonight. I was not aware of the current SOI crash and the potential implications for later this month. < This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. >

Somewhat dated, but cool for the folks up North , just missed our Northern areas.

This has some interest......from Mount Holly AFD this morning All good things must come to an end, however. This comes to fruition as the surface low moves off to the north and east after absorbing the remnants of Cristobal. To our east, an mid and low level area of low pressure begins to deepen and looks to push westward towards the East Coast by Thursday. This will eventually interact with the approaching cold front Friday. There is remarkable agreement amongst the GFS and EC at this point with the retrograding low merging with the front over our region in the Friday timeframe. There is the potential for heavy rain with these features given the stalled pattern. Thankfully, a nice period of dry weather before this will help soils recover a bit.

Agreed, but last year, due in part due to the cold pool and other factors there were a couple very deep NAO episodes that brought a refreshing air mass that lasted about 24 to 36 hours, even though it was summer. I believe the one in August was very robust and broke a record for - SD . But yes, run of the mill - NAO in summer is a warmth signal. The flip is on as you mention. The cold pool although initially more Southern displaced may be breaking up and warming. An ominous sign for the hurricane season and long lasting heat and humidity possibly. Some buoys off the Mid Atlantic Coast have risen nicely the last 8 days. Look for more in the next week.