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Hearing the UkMET went South as well.

What does the NAO domain look like? Are we getting that Davis Straits blocking trend there after hour 96 ?

In my forum we say that the lack of all snow solutions are mostly climo related as we are not yet into our peak for all snow events. However, I get from your post that we could actually get better BM storms but are lacking the more desired West based NAO block. This too is very interesting..... getting enough wave breaking to help but not enough to achieve a coastal BM solution. I thought we were going to get a West Based NAO even without a MJO phase 8 1 ?

That makes sense. I think in the post above Space Weather thinks the min will be achieved in mid 2020. Some say we are already there. The receptive base state reference I thought had to due with the current atmosphere. The period you mention of max benefit being just beyond might be connected to a paper or two that states there is a lag effect possible - ocean current related/ SST etc. After a solar minimum it is thought the NAO domain might be more receptive to a negative state. I know Isotherm covers this. If this is correct next winter's NAO might be more so negative. One paper even stated there might be a several year lag after the solar min regarding certain pattern drivers, one being the NAO again.

Granted this is way out there, but on this morning's GEFS at hour 264 to hour 270 looks very interesting at 500. This time period has my interest. After this period ( Dec 20 th to Dec 23 rd ) I almost wonder if we take a step back and moderate , or if we continue on the colder side. The several days leading up to Christmas look like they have potential. I have not been able to say that for about eight years.

More on the speculation side, but I wonder the role the current very low solar min and lack of sunspots are having on the pattern. From what I read in a very low solar period, the solar background slightly amplifies whatever the base state is. So, if there was a base state that favored increased colder risk and less warmth, you would verify slightly colder versus warmer. It sure seems that is way this month has gone so far. Space Weather states we have not reached the lowest point yet, however, I know some experts use different data to decipher when they think the solar min has been achieved.

I like the mention here of 60 West . This is a cool animation.

There were a few weather pros / weather event historians , etc. who mentioned several 1960s type analogs for later this month a while back. Of course, one is Uncle who liked 1966, I think the Christmas eve snowstorm. What seems to be working, but maybe not as cold, ( at least so far ) , is the PMM . Back ion September severeweatherblog brought it up, and stated the correlation in December would be for a cold East and very active in terms of precip. Seems to be working so far. The correlation also calls for increased phasing of storms.

I hope Webb is correct about the weakening + IOD releases its hold on the tropics and enables better forcing and a more conducive NAO domain. Will be of interest to track the Scand ridge event on the modeling.

About a coating here.

A follow-up on this, as HM spoke about this about a week ago. The interesting thing is, as Hugo mentions, since it is from the Euro it raises the eye brow a little more. If anything, displacements and elongations can benefit us. No worries about a SSWE, but these little things do matter.

Can anyone confirm the HH GFS has a massive Scandinavian ridge modeled out in fantasy land.

Gift card would be cool .... I love coffee :-)

Never really thought about the role of cyclonic wave breaking and the location of the TPV.

Bob, if in future EPS runs, we see heights lower in the SE and off the SE coast what would be the implications regarding the storm threat? Would it mean a further South transfer, or is that too simple a presumption, or even an incorrect outcome? I know heights would react to changes upstream as well, such as the 50/50, TPV location, the NAO, etc. We have had that look off the SE coast for a while. It waxes and wanes.

Well, I am still totally fine with the storm, after the storm after the storm scenario, as mentioned earlier today. At least things are not boring. An active pattern continues.

yeah, psu mentioned that possibility. Still way to early to make any conclusions.

Very profound, I like, and it is true. A couple of weeks from now and this might have been a different outcome for us. What a crappy latitude I live at.

This is right around the time period when both the AO and even the NAO may both be negative. More support for the AO to be negative. Ever so slightly, the run up to xmas is improving to a degree. However, whether the models have it figured out correctly is impossible to say at this time. Extreme volatility is more likely, but there is some support for a - NAM state and if the wave break occurs and works in our favor we might be shoveling.

Very timely post by severeweatherblog Expect rather abrupt model changes continuing, and going forward, due to several competing factors. A difficult time to model coming up for sure.

Some cool stuff going on with the NAM state, also today's CPC ensembles has trended better yet again with a more so - AO.

Eric mentions the weakening of the previous record + IOD is a plus overall.

If only ........ Plus, I like the green blob over Delaware, probably additional cooling from a recent SECS.

We touched on this last week ( new research ) about the MJO cycling through the colder phases quicker, with more time spent in the warmer phases courtesy of the West Pac warm pool. Do you have any idea when, or if the Pac Jet will slow down, or is that outcome unlikely? I know you saw the too the record + IOD is weakening. On a side note, actually seems up next might be the development of a West based - NAO and after the weekend rainstorm a potential winter storm threat.

MJO Update from yesterday.