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NAM state still looks uneventful. Meanwhile World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc Today's 46-day ECMWF shows a +4-5°C anomaly for the full month of December in the north-central USA (vs 20-year climatology). At face value that would rival the warmest Decembers on record in Minnesota, such as 2015 and 1997 - both super El Niño winters

Coldest reading so far this Fall at 34 degrees.

GFS having a hard time, ( but what is new ), honestly even the Euro last week was focusing on a -EPO cold air dump. That has changed now. EPS looks very warm for late November and early December. Afternoon BAMWx update :

Interesting, but I think Ben has his MJO phases a bit mixed up.

The same SST feedback issues that support a bad Pac are evident in the Atlantic. The Atlantic's huge rise in SST the last 3 years is the most meaningful and pronounced versus any other part of the globe to a large extent. The WAR is robust not only in the summer but even other seasons as well.

Latest

crazy......

We get our first freeze next week it appears. Avoided 3 freeze warnings so far in my local area.

Little faith in those indices. Many , many false attempts the last 24 months. Enjoy the outdoors late month.

What's new? Everyone on the warm and less snow bandwagon. Simple to see warmth is expanding and the climate is warming. We just broke into another historic anomalous precip event. The tropical jet is changing as well in response to warming. Dominos falling down one after another, rather sad.

Good points. I have noticed over time the CFSv2 trends to the GEFS.

Grass cutting to Jan this year. Soil moisture crazy high, fog every morning, dew points backing up eventually. Thinking ahead to what becomes of the SSTs in the Western Atlantic. They may never really decline that much if this is a very warm winter.

Well the tropical connection still remains in place, another high QPF event is set for later next week. Several disturbances combined with a robust WAR will lead to extreme rainfall possibilities later next week in the East. On a side note, I spoke to some master gardeners and the change in climate here recently, and set in motion due to high dew points and extreme rainfall events since August 2019 , has interesting outcomes regarding plants and cool season grasses. Many seeds remain dormant until conditions arise and these conditions are happening now. Pao trivialis is one and is appearing in many lawns in my area, mine included, no way to selectively kill it unless you kill your lawn as well.

Some indications that the spv and the tpv may start to couple later in the month. From Matt Hugo < Some evidence now as well for +ve uWind anoms to make the link between the strat and trop looking ahead further into Nov, especially between 70-90N. Note how the yellow and orange colours descend from 100hPa down to surface. Another potential sign that blocking is less likely... >

WPC is gradually increasing precip amounts in Days 6 and 7 as you mention.

@psuhoffman will be happy. Adds more ammunition to the very warm and potentially snow-less winter of 20-21

I did mention a couple days back that at the present time there is no direct link between the two ( SPV and the TPV ) and if anything the organizational structures are not ideal for linkage at this time. As I mentioned too, other factors may come into play in December and Jan. I do know that the WPAC warm pool is the warmest it has ever been , much different than 2013-14 and the current background state has never really existed with the significant Pac warmth focused in certain areas against the strengthening Nina . Very interesting to see how things play out.

As a follow up to above. However, keep in mind though other factors are at play too when you look to December and January weather outcomes in the East.

CFSv2 versus the GEFS strat forecats I have been keeping a record and noticing the verification between them, and it seems that the GEFS is schooling the CFSv2 in regards to strat forecast accuracy. This is actually not great news because I see a trend lately with the GEFS strengthening the PV as it slowly gets closer and closer to the ERA5 max. Another nail in the coffin in regards to achieving any significant or long lasting HL blocking.

Off the charts weather event coming up this weekend , especially for areas further NE under the 588 DM positive anomaly. Regardless of location, temps way above normal for a significant number of days. From bluewave, recently posted. < We could challenge the all-time November 500 MB positive height anomaly record this weekend. It looks like the record for the NYC area is 589 DM. The models all have values close to that level.

Here dropped only to 37 then rebounded. Have yet to reach 32 here. Two freeze warnings issued both busted too cold.

@CAPE any areas need more over seeding ? And that forecast is for Boston. Meanwhile, notice at the end of the loop really cold air is really reduced in coverage in vast areas compared to the recent cold air mass in the Northern States including the Northeast, and in Central and Eastern Canada as well.

Well enjoy the outdoors. Better to be outside then in. I will welcome any winter cold during the next 5 months. I can't even recall the last 6 I ch or greater snowfall here.

I hope your mower is still gassed up. I envision 3 more grass cuttings. Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to a colder pattern in early December. Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond.

As mentioned a couple days ago we may not be done after Eta as the EPS indicates more activity. Meanwhile the robust WAR becomes an even bigger player later this week, approaching 588 DM. , simply incredible ! On the speculation side, maybe an anomalous weather event later in November in the East.