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Brilliant, because too many times in the past we have had the rug pulled form under us. Also, I am in it for a sustainable period of cold, along with snow as well please. Too many transient cold periods, I hope we lock into a longer period of cold and storm potential.

@bluewave simply in terms of modeling do you have stats or a personal favorite when it comes to predicting the MJO. What model tends to do best? As, I know there are many.

Good post, and you might enjoy this read I brought from Tip over in the NE forum regarding the coming - EPO .... see bold section From Tip : < Not sure who's said what over the last page or so ... so all credit where it is due, but the 00z GFS operational run ( and few priors that I can recall ) have been more aggressive with -EPO than it's ensemble means, but now the mean "might" be catching on just looking at the individual GEF members. As rumor has it the EPS has been showing changes in the Pacific in the extended for a few days now.. . The 00z Euro is hitting at a middling robust blocking ridge over Alaska. Given that these more sophisticated operational versions of disparate model types are nodding over that index switching modes, these are not altogether bad operational indicators for cold. I'm interested in ESRL's EPO progs from 00z because just eye-balling the GEF members individually, it does appear to be more of them situated blocking nodes and or ridge axis at higher latitudes of N-NE Pacific arc. The take away there/mean is that they actually have it, not so much any given particulars that are unlikely to be correct. We'll cross the orientation bridge when the time comes. But, from D4.5 right out to the end of the D13 ..that entire period is now rather robustly -EPO in the operational 00z, and 06z GFS, so those rumors of the EPS Pacific are not 'entirely' alone. In the dailies, the GFS has been signaling a whopper cold whack out there around ( now ) 204 or so hours.. but total smear time is probably a 3.5 day stint at < 520 dm thickness.. with some nadir temps that are dropping steam plumes. Yet the robuster ridge(ings) over the Alaskan sector are still out there in the la-la range of that model. I like it when 564 dm centers over Fairbanks! There's likely to be a few renditions of mass loading into the Canadian shield, with on and off disturbance orientations/existence but, the dearth of bona fide winter patterning is apparently on a shortened lease here. >

Of note, the GFS has the Jan 22 threat, and while taking a quick look this morning the Euro Control has a snow event for the Eastern areas for Jan 20th . There is potential between Jan 20 th and the 24 th. and probably beyond as well. At least the option to track versus getting a tan. Also, some indications we may be trending to a + PNA look way out in fantasy land.

Will be interesting to track the continued changes moving forward.

It appears now that the TPV takes up home on our side, maybe in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. So, a readily available cold air source. Maybe this potential set-up creates a more conducive environment regarding the NAM state , as mentioned previously, anything closer to neutral would be a lot better than right now. I will ride any improvements in AO and the PNA states, would love to get some favorable indices later in the month. If we do, that in itself will lend a lot more confidence that we can track a legitimate threat for the coastal areas, my area and your area included. psu already got his 5 inches

Fits the Euro seasonal model forecast released on 1/1/2020, encouraging so far .

He needs to go out to lunch with Webb, it is not all HL, but wondering whether the implications from the improving Pac will make the high latitudes more receptive to influences from certain players. Isotherm as always mentions not just the attacks on the pv during a typical winter season, but whether the environment is favorable for certain things to proceed in a cooperative manner. Everything from AAM, Glamm, waves 1 and 2, etc. I like the trends today. The period near Jan 20 to 24 is very interesting but more so is what happens from there to effect Feb and March as well.

I can't believe you got 5.1 inches of snow from yesterday's event. I measured a semi dusting last night, your location is great! And, I loved your photo yesterday with the kids and the the trees in the background , I just saw it moments ago. Congrats on the snow !

Nice to see the EPS get some support from the GEFS. As @WxUSAF noted Webb really likes this wave to continue to progress. Some folks I follow whom specialize in tropical forcing and the West Pac weather patterns think this wave has a chance to get to phase 8.

Me as well. If you knew that answer you could make a lot of money in the energy markets. I for one believe we will see changes, but they will be gradual and hopefully these "positive" changes appear closer and closer to real time as we near February. It has been another challenging Pacific to forecast, two years in a row. I realize there are other factors besides the Pac, way too many to name, you know them all. Just when you think you have a handle on one , an unforeseen pattern driver or player rears its ugly head. This year the IOD has been a pain just to name one.

Don't forget we may even get some help from the high amp MJO to encourage HL influence, as Matt mentions here, and also as mentioned previously last week by Don S and Bluewave .

Given previous powerful and even record breaking North Atlantic storms, the past several months, this is not really that far fetched an idea/outcome. This is also around the noted time period of Jan 17 to 22 nd.

As a follow up to the previous post from Matt Hugo re the GFS and the PV Simon points out the CFS also has the same time period ( Jan 17 to the 22 rd ) with a decrease as well, but afterwards while the GFS continues the downtrend the CFS rebounds. I could speculate that what happens during this time frame, and shortly thereafter, along with the latest QBO numbers may have a pretty significant impact on what occurs in our weather during February , well at least in regards to the HL and the NAM state.

I hardly ever look at the Euro Control but way out in fantasy lands it develops a West based NAO / Davis Straights block. Not sure the mechanism to how it achieved this, possibly the Scand retro and or wave breaking etc. Anyway, Webb mentioned this possibility today, ironic it shows up on the Control, and we know what a well timed and placed West based NAO block can do via some of the recent updates psu posted about ( re how the Atlantic can help us when we have a crap Pacific )

It raining here so thinking about the future. Great Update from @donsutherland1 courtesy 33andrain I really thought the part about the EPS was an eye opener. I am hopeful though that the pv weakens later in Jan and Feb. But, I am still unsure whether we see sustained and significant weakening or whether any weakening is simply based on passing peak strength pv climatology. Here it is : < Some quick thoughts on the long-range pattern evolution... 1. The GEFS remains stuck with essentially the western trough-eastern ridge pattern. 2. The EPS appears to have accelerated the onset of a colder pattern. Both ideas are actually problematic. First, the base case from historical data is that the MJO will likely progress into Phases 7 and 8 in the extended range. The GEFS idea seems not to reflect that development. The shift in the MJO, even with lags, should start manifesting itself in some hemispheric changes. Second, in past cases where strong AO+/PNA- regimes rapidly collapsed, the period of troughing in the East was often short-lived (late January 2000 followed by February 2000 provide an illustration). Also worrisome is that strong polar vortex that is shown on the extended range of the EPS. There would be a risk that its persistence would lead to a scenario where above normal 500 mb heights are elongated and eventually stretch across the CONUS with the coldest air being bottled up mainly in Canada (with only some transient shots). Overall, I still think a slower pattern evolution still makes more sense, especially if the MJO progresses as typically is the case following very high amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the January 5-20 period. Colder shots would be transient until perhaps the closing week of January and then more sustained cold could develop. Interestingly enough, some of the recent CFSv2 weekly forecasts show such a situation. >

Judah is silly........... One minute winter is coming .... then it is over .... no its back.............I have heard this before from .............hmmmm.......... DT ........LOL he cancelled and then un-cancelled and then cancelled the un-cancelled....... Sorry got distracted back to topic . Webb thinks otherwise. Here you go -

Of note, of course the implications are uncertain, but some changes are most likely going to happen., maybe a reshuffle up top and a weakening to a degree. Hugo suggesting the GFS versus the GEFS is more believable. We know that the GEFS does have a bias, so maybe this time the GFS has a clue. Look at the date on the image below , Jan 23 rd, and then check out the post form HM further down......, funny things seem to happen near the 20th

EPS not budging. If anything, it appears to achieve a more favorable outcome quicker. Buy your tickets now, EPS versus the GEFS .

Today's GEPS looks better.

According to Eric Webb courtesy 33andrain he states this : "The GEFS & EPS couldn't be more different after 300 hours in the North Pacific & North America. Subtle changes in the North Pacific storm track are mostly to blame as the GEPS which shows basically the same MJO forecast as the GEFS but produces a more similar height configuration to the EPS." Meanwhile some interesting thoughts by Webb and Paul Roundy regarding the GEPS and the GEFS.

@psuhoffman to go along with your previous post, note that NH snow cover has really declined. I propose 2020 has no analog currently, but what is clear is a continuation of the November head fake> Using November as a whole, and December prior to the 15 th as clues to help to forecast the true heart of winter, so far at least has been diminished the last two years. Snow cover looked great , now look at it and the extent. Yuck NAM looked good and now horrible. Very cold and anomalous November cold and now warm in may NH areas. What once worked as clues to the winter do not seem to carry the same weight as they did before the last couple years. I looked at the Northern Hemisphere temps and it is a bit concerning that is warm everywhere.

This from October 2019 , so basically 3 months have passed , note all 4 models indicate +NAO for the period DJF. Guess what so anfar it is correct. I believe HM a couple months ago thought there would indeed be intervals of at least some -NAO., so far nada... I would guess if we get one maybe it would be March. Would it be beneficial is hard to say, unless it falls into the mold of 2018.

Within the realm of random chaos I wonder if we do get an unexpected and sudden pattern change, because that is what the Euro Seasonal implies or do we stay the course discussed by psu because the players are stable. Even though psu did mention there are various options on the table. Some who follow the strat and the HL would think improvement arrives but the process is a very slow one.

Hope the EPS has a clue, because other modeling is not so great, and any improvement towards fantasy land seems to reverse course and goes back to crap. Remarkable consensus on a + 4 or even higher AO soon . And a forever - PNA as far as the eye can see. So then, with Jan written off, next up is Feb. There was a post Webb made over in 33 yesterday describing a blend of several good winters centered on Feb. that I believe he is associating with the Feb Euro seasonal. I am fine with his ideas but we need to see some changes to show up soon if that were going to be the outcome. As for the PNA ..... some thought we have a +PNA average during Jan and Feb, but not looking good at all. I can't overstate how important I feel having some sort of +PNA and or - AO is to our region. From Don S. - here is a segment of his update regarding some PNA stats : < Despite 500 mb differences in the extended range, there remains strong consensus between the EPS and GEFS that the PNA will remain negative to strongly negative past mid-month. Such a scenario would lead to a continuation of a generally mild pattern beyond mid-month. Transient cold shots would be possible. A PNA- typically translates in warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic region. For the January 16-31, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City and Philadelphia was 32.2° and 32.1° respectively. When the PNA was negative, those values were 34.2° and 34.1° respectively. The coldest mean temperatures for PNA- periods occurred when the EPO and AO were both negative (New York City: 29.1° and Philadelphia: 28.9°). The warmest occurred when the EPO and AO were both positive (New York City: 37.9° and Philadelphia: 37.5°). >