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Get your mower ready early CAPE, since you will have a LUSH FULL GREEN lawn after your over seeding. My lawn in the front is still green. These winters anymore more don't even deserve that title, more like a robust Fall .

Speaking of the AAM

Basing this off the progression of the weeklies, but mostly the behavior of the pv so far this season going back to November, maybe we get a significant inland and coastal plain snow event between the 14th and the 20th of Feb. , total speculation, but interesting things, although brief in nature have occurred bear the 20 th of the month. We simply have been unlucky and this time period may hold the best potential of the winter.

The color green serves you well mappy. Congrats ! And, wow, you are over 31,000 posts !!

Agreed. I am thinking you may mean the NAM state. A week ago, for a period of a few days, it appeared the NAM state may change to the better, at least neutral, along with some indications even going slightly negative. Now it is a steady + 1 to +2 AO . Getting anything to change up North has been a case in futility.

And where was the - EPO ? The driver that winter was the - EPO, and I believe and the warm pool in the NE Pac.

Until we get a dramatic and very significant pattern re-shuffle I see little to get enthused about, even if the models show some sort of hail Mary. Seen that, done that. Everyone who posts here wants snow but the indicies and background state are hostile, even more hostile for our area. No idea when that reshuffle occurs, might have to wait until late Feb or even early March. The NAM state sucks, NAO not cooperating, etc. Any MJO decent response gets washed out in time as it travels East. Even previous statistics showing the MJO successfully getting to phase 8 are busting. Everything getting washed out. Very tired of seeing the MJO models because it does not really matter what they show, due to accuracy issues and response feedback.

You mean nicely list all the posts you mentioned it, similar to how you listed all the various posts from psu over a long timeline, in almost a stalking manner, when he stated his concerns regarding the pattern ahead and his thoughts on the winter ? Along with your trade mark smile emoji that you plaster around when someone goes warm or mild because you are cold and snow biased, regardless of the evidence. I am not going to waste my time doing that. My gosh I already wasted two minutes responding to you.

He is an authority, and has promised a rock'in February.

Maybe the warming base state is reducing the smaller events. The end , as Simon mentioned , is truly remarkable.

It is interesting to discuss the long range, but you should realize that modeling, in general, at long leads is perilous. The base state is a warm one so far this winter. Cold air masses are at best feeble. If it were not for our hobby's purpose and never ending quest for guidance and quest to discover the forecast beyond day 5 we would eliminate the never ending model chaos. I think I read recently the increase in social media sharing of models at exceptional long leads only causes further mind bending beliefs that we really know what may transpire. I tend to agree with that general idea. But, if you use the data wisely you can learn and move the science forward. Certainly modeling has improved the last few decades. On a more relevant long range note, a quick carry over post from snowy over at 33. Still some hope for later in Feb though ........ << There's been so so so many posts arguing about the MJO, but at the end of the day, if it doesn't get to the extratropics and the poles, it's impact is rather limited. Again it's going to be gradual. But a positive AAM is a positive sign. Nothing definitive and no sudden equations or conclusions to be made there, but is a hopeful sign. Cautiously optimistic is the best place to be IMO. >>

Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there.

@psuhoffman hmm saw this and thought of your post yesterday

Something to think about , this does coincide with a period of reduced zonal winds. However ,based on what I am hearing and seeing a true official SSWE is not likely this winter. The vortex is resilient and strong. But as HM mentions, it does have a vacillation cycle near the 20th of the month.

The theme of the little things screwing us continues. Realistically with a look like that in Western Canada you would think the Atlantic might react better in the area near Greenland, instead look at that hot mess. The multi winter + NAO continues. I was reading about the dynamic models versus the statistical models in terms of the HL call for the winter . One model camp sure nailed it. Well, at least so far that is. I still have hope for February. The progression of sensible weather ,not necessarily how we got there, does seem to match Tom's progression nicely. If so, his ideas and the notion we pull back ridging in Feb and get an East Coast trough would spell opportunities for us. In this new day and age of non-analog winters and changing base states I would be happy with just a two week window of very cold and snowy weather. I don't even care if I don't hit average snowfall , give me 50 % of the season in two weeks with cold and wind and make it look like days of old . To me that is a win.

Great update from Don S . Here it is courtesy 33: << posted 24 minutes ago By now, the above normal height anomalies shown on the closing days of the operational ECMWF have likely gained notice. Those height anomalies and the accompanying temperature rebound are well-supported. The 12z GEFS is in good agreement with the 12z operational ECMWF at 240 hours. However, by the end of the GEFS run, the area of above normal height anomalies retrogrades toward western Canada and a trough takes shape in the East. My thinking has been and, at least for now, remains as noted in my nearly daily discussions of the longer-term pattern evolution: During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. Obviously, the situation bears watching. At least for me, I will need to see more evidence that the change is not a temporary period of moderation (highlighted above) during a transition toward a more sustained period of cold. The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight over the next week. If people want something gloomy to consider, January 1-15, 1998 had a mean temperature of 43.3° (2020 was 42.7°) in New York City. February 1998 went on to have a mean temperature of 40.6°. If people want something more appealing to consider, January 1-15, 1907 had a mean temperature of 43.5°. February 1907 had a mean temperature of 25.9° and monthly snowfall of 21.8". >>

Similar to the issues last year at times. Little ROI in hobby land these days, as Bob did the right thing focusing on the cha ching. Maybe in Feb. we score as we hopefully progress to a more traditional Nino-ish pattern along with legitimate threats. If we hit a great two week snow period we can still make up for lost time.

Random thoughts ...... some may hit your question, others not , will also think more about this tonight. Temperature profile of the Atlantic might be one reason, effecting confluence and blocking.....changes have happened over the past couple decades in the Atlantic, maybe even the Gulf Stream. and changes up near Greenland too. Changes in the Pacific Ocean current and base state in the last 20 years - with an emphasis on the Western Warm pool . Favoring warmth phases over cool/cold - faster Pac jet, more warmth transport, higher moisture content. bluewave and others have posted and mentioned there has been some sort of change in normal snowfall distribution during the last 10 years. more snow in warmer periods. Reduction in Sea ice leading to changes in the EPO region . Slightly rising global temps Maybe the current global base state favors more higher impact , higher moisture events, but not as cold as decades ago due to the reason above. You get more warmer snowfalls, more dynamic snowfalls but less small scale REGIONAL snow events because cold air can't not maintain or counter the warmer push. Might even over lap into the global baroclinic zone and the wash out effect. You need dynamic systems to produce the snowfall anything less or weaker events are rain, unlike decades ago. Maybe these effects are more pronounced at lower latitudes as well, meaning our area and the area in your study. That might be a reason as well. Ha ha that is my wag.

We don't need extreme cold for the favored period as you mention. Maybe arctic air waits for late Feb , seriously. Wonder if we go to a typical Nino pattern in the later stages of the every two week pattern. If we can flood Canada with super frigid air in mid Feb and then deliver it via an improving NAM state maybe it is possible. The ridge pushing West during Feb fits the Nino progression as you mentioned as well. We know during early Feb and on we will have the active STJ . Another time period to note is one that also seems to be on a pattern, and I am referring to the PV vacillation cycle.....( in strong Vortex winters ) ...date of the 20th of the month , as HM posted days ago, ( see last two HM posts ) it has been going on near that date on a regular basis. Wonder if that ties into a significant event for us near Feb 18 th to the 22 nd.

Of note, bluewave mentioned this a while back, we have been lacking a Miller A track and even a Benchmark storm(s) in the winter recently . Folks have scored up North but in some unusual ways. The Pac jet the last two years, in varying ways, has interfered with some of our favored windows/threats for us here in the Northern Mid Atlantic, to what degree is debatable, and you can refer to climo, as it just being par for the course. Some years everything goes right, some not so much.

Whether this matters down the road is debatable , but there does seem to be some indication is a slowing of the zonal winds in the weeks ahead. Not sure how much of that is typical seasonal effects taking hold. ( weakening ) Any one know when the new QBO data arrives ?

Excellent points, goes along what I was thinking about change in general, no one pattern has legs.

A very intense wave breaking cyclonic event next week, wonder the implications for the time period afterwards. Very complex to figure this one out for us.

If we can get some cold air masses to be present during early Feb, we will have an active STJ to work with. However, I can see a lot of ways to lose. Cold air seems to lose out the closer we get to any events so far this season , and sometimes the Pac jet interferes with Western ridging. But, there is potential, which is better than 70 and sunny on Groundhog's Day.

This November's head fake, just like November 2018, was alluring and drew some folks in . The seasonal models so far are nailing this winter. Too bad they sucked last winter in predicting the epic pattern that did a Pamela Anderson. Bravo so far to Isotherm. Modeling in the long range this year seems no better than last year in losing favorable patterns. Whether it means the little things that are causing it or larger scale issues, what matters to me is that you can not put any faith in solutions beyond day 6. I know our regional climo sucks for snowfall, but you have to see that there have been some rather large scale busts in patterns in the medium range since November , with incredible swings in the EPS and the GFS.