frd
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Everything posted by frd
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First time I have seen this expanse of cold over the NH this winter.
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If you click on the animation and then go full screen you can see some pretty significant differences later in the forecast cycle. As Ventrice points out the GEFS is much different than the EPS north of Alaska. Focus on the evolution after hour 222. I am sure there are implications for us depending on what outcome wins out. I am guessing we would want the GEFS outcome, leading to colder air masses. T However in both loops you can see the development of the very impressive Baffin Bay block .
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CPC AO forecast has trended to the Euro with 2/3 of the members going down after the initial decline that is taking place now. Also the GFS NH NAM index forecast has updated, the latest is the bottom image.
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The - NAO will get a big assist going forward as Eric describes.
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Can you post the EPO and the WPO from the over night Euro if possible. Thanks
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GFS must have the highest verification scores for 360 snowfall forecasts. Bravo
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Wonder the impact of the SST profile in the Atlantic. It is much warmer. Blue wave noted that many inland runners, coastal huggers may be due to the shift in Atlantic SST anomalies. I mean really, everything is a hot mess these days.
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I agree. Taking a break from tracking. Nice day out. Taking our Greyhound for a walk. Of course looking forward to the GEFS and the EPS. I rather luck out being g too cold because it seems cold is the issue not precip.
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@psuhoffman This has to be a positive in my book.
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@poolz1
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I am with you CAPE but I feel this is one of the best overall winter long range threads on the web
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Optimism
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Are you including the EPO? I am just referring to the PNA, AO and PNA.
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Exactly, the EPS has been wrong many times, while the GEFS has won many forecasts over the Euro Op and the EPS . I say all options are on the table at this time moving forward. The GFS has been extremely erratic, no news there.
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@CAPE Paul has had the hottest hand so far in Pac recognition. .
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Sounds we need to score between the 17 th and the 23 rd. Have to admit though it would not surprise me for another model swing to better down the road.
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Teleconnections have been great for weeks on end, and we have zero snow to prove for it .
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Well this event is earlier than 2018 that delivered that crazy March. But, this is a Nina and who knows, and I bet the QBO has a role as well. But another dive below negative is days away. So guessing another deep dive in the AO may be in the cards. Still no sign of a split but a - NAM state seems probable in cycles. 5 or more days below zero in negative territory forecasted
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Ever since the Super Nino it has been a mess, and last year was the year of the West Pac hyper warm MJO cycle. Every year it is a negative driver, you pick , West Pac, IO record phase, etc. etc.
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According to one met is was suppose to be a game changer. Although many mets that I read say the time lag for that to hit our sensible weather takes us to Spring. Two sides there on that one. Looking for good news this morning and looking at the grass on my way to get some bagels . Will not be long to mowing season. My goodness I was ready just a week ago to move my snow blower to the front of the garage. Been in the back corner since 2016..
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If true, anyone whomever posts the stupid weeklies should be banned Have you noticed the continuous, almost laughable, repetitive predictable failure of the modeling when it forecast cold or a colder pattern, been happening more and more the last three years, maybe related to the whatever, all I know is modeling can not be trusted and the evolving base state is ruining everything it seems.
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Ah, but the weakening Nina, a game changer.
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Isotherm stated earlier for a major SSWE I think it was a full 5 days or more of a wind reversal. Looking at some data tonight it appears a secondary push below 0 will occur in about 5 days and from there it could be 5 to 7 days until the winds revert back to Westerly Also noticed here both the GEFS and the bias corrected CFSv2 have trended with a weaker vortex moving forward. Euro
