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Interesting post ,but what are your thoughts here in regards to using Februaries with AAM > 2.0 per as BAMWX just did as means to forecast warmth in the East for this coming Feb. Would you say unreliable because they are focusing on just one thing?

The close up is is rated XXX

Latest from Don S about an hour ago. I enjoy his updates for our area in regards to the information he presents on the MJO sand the AO. Here is Don's post: <<<< Today again saw temperatures run above normal. In the Southeast, near record and record warmth prevailed. However, the prevalent pattern that saw New York City record a mean temperature of 42.7° during January 1-15 (6th warmest on record going back to 1869) is coming to a close. Winter has not been canceled. During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. 　 In addition, on Friday night and Saturday a system could bring New York City and Newark its first measurable snowfall since January 6. Philadelphia could receive its first measurable snowfall since December 11. 　 Initial snowfall estimates are: 　 Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Islip: 2" or less New York City: 1"-3" Newark: 1"-3" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Poughkeepsie: 3"-6" Scranton: 3"-6" 　 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. 　 The SOI was -11.63 today. 　 Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.622. 　 The AO had a preliminary average of +3.560 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. 　 No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 23. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 　 On January 14, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.258 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 3.554. 　 Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. 　 Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. 　 In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. The first such event should occur this coming weekend. 　 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 36.0° in New York City. 　 Finally, the latest C3S multi-system forecast suggests that the February-April temperature will likely be somewhat warmer than normal for the region (despite what could be a colder than normal February) and warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal in Europe where winter has been largely absent. >>>>>

Some humor is what I needed . LOL

I need to study about the - MVP, first I heard about this. Another wrinkle in my expectations. Not enough time in the day. So much data. Maybe Bob or psu know.

So, Feb = highest climo snow potential around these parts, and maybe a more pronounced Nino response is on the way. Get lucky with some fresh arctic air, any maybe we enter a period of multiple threats during our best month. There was a recent post today over in the NYC forum about increasing AAM and how it can reduce the tendency for a - EPO / -NAO. However, Don S chimed and brought over some neat stats regarding that connection. @donsutherland1 also stated the post about increasing AAM doesn't accurately depict the relationship between AAM , the EPO and the Nino state. You can check that post out yourself in the Jan discussion thread over on the NYC thread. Don always manages to find some cool weather statistics on just about every weather element, driver and indices.

This will be interesting to track. Maybe winter 20-21 with a weak Nino , a well established -QBO along with a 12 month solar lag. LOL

The EPO is so annoying. Must be driving certain energy mets crazy......you know who you are.

You must be a great teacher ! Well done, and thank you psu ! Love the numbered system And yes, it certainly does help explain things.

No one is perfect, and I hardly ever post cranky's stuff , but we will see. Sounds to me he is expecting some re-alignment in the NH with the weather features, and then some sort of winter pattern emerging, aka. deep winter. Hmm

Is this the area , ( the Southern reaches of the area ) that is prone to Atlantic wave breaking and deepening storm systems? If so, maybe the EPS has the correct idea and progression. Seems it has to amplify just enough, as you mentioned. Not too much or another outcome ?

I forget what recent year it was, it may have been 2017 come to think of it , definitely one of the last 6 or 7 winters. The tracks were almost ideal , favoring snow, but the cold air was stale and the confluence never held. Not sure what the cause(s) were, but it lasted a good part of the winter. There were even issues far to the NE as well . .

There has been a few of these the last several months. This one looks very impressive.

I will ride the -AO in the future. I just hope we can improve the NAM state towards the end of the month and early Feb. Would be so awesome to enter a period of blocking at the HL that sticks for while. Not expecting a SSWE but a weakening is certainly possible.

@psuhoffman there is your dry trending to normal precip between the 22 nd and the 28th. Whether the normal precip is wet or white , well who knows.

Cold and snowy forecasts draw you in and then it goes warmer, less snow, then the winter cancel weenies come out and right on cue you see the colder forecast with snow potential, then the cold arrives, in shorter duration than what was expected , snow threats don't live up to expectations, rinse and repeat, Almost seems to happen on a pre-planned schedule. I know our climo is not snow friendly but even HM has made several posts over the past 3 months regarding a trace phenomena. That snowy post I did this morning about the MJO, I did without much concern, but since then things have degraded. Whether he is correct or not remains to be seen. I am waiting on the NAM change at some point. I am still not enthused over the snow prospects down the road. However, Don S came up with some interesting stats regarding the AO. And holly cow was the AO really + 4.36........ but Judah ? Here is Don's recent post: << Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.368. 　 The AO will average above +3.000 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. >>> 　

Some feel the MJO help only gives us a limited window later this month. Some pros feel the MJO will not lead to a month long period of cold and snow, that goes to the end of Feb. . Without a better NAM state an active STJ may only deliver wet versus white. Progressive systems like you say or even cutters. I wonder though the lag effect regarding the MJO and how that plays out for mid Feb. I am not sure those who state winter might be over after the first week of Feb is accurate. I also know the MJO does not control 100 % of the weather outcome here. These folks with an early winter ending are going against the CFS and the weeklies. But, to be honest, I place no real value in either model due to past performance issues. Even consensus means very little, case in point last year. We can still lose the favorable pattern they are portraying , as it has happened many times the past two winters. I bring you this post by snowy over at 33 , it is any interesting read. And for the record I am delivering information, I have no real stance or feeling about where we go down the road. It is still very complex and hard to call. I present both good and bad views on the snow and cold outlook. One option is cold and snow potential until early Feb and then moderation and then one last period of winter in late Feb to early March. Here is snowy's post: ,,,,, You can’t deny the pattern will be good for the Eastern US for the last two weeks of January, based on the strong MJO pass over Phase 7-8: I don’t see the same support for February, the MJO basically goes dark again after a counteracting opposite MJO signal passes over Maritime Continent and to a lesser extent, the Pacific. The Indian Ocean dominant base state is re-established by the latest EC-46. CFS still plays the weaker Early February card, and perhaps a better late February (next GWO cycle?). But with an uncooperative stratosphere and NAM, I can’t see a cold risk sustained for a month, based upon one MJO pass. I’d enjoy the rest of January while it lasts IMO It should be good. >>>

A recent post from bluewave. He made a good point about the MJO and the Nino response. <<<<<< Perhaps this extreme MJO event can jump-start the El Niño. We are getting a decent WWB event unfolding now in the Pacific. I would like to see the northern branch stop competing with the southern stream. A strengthening El Niño could allow the STJ to take over with less interference from disturbances moving through the Great Lakes. >>>>>>>

+FT , looking good

Update from Don S courtesy 33 : <<<< Late afternoon thoughts... 1. Yesterday, the MJO reached Phase 5 at amplitude of 2.430 (a January record for Phase 5). 2. Historically, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8 at amplitude of 1.000 or above following its being in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. 3. The idea of a pattern change featuring a trough in the means in the East remains on track. 15-day Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO peaks in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period: >>>>

Ha ha ... funny Ryan

Weeklies = Well, looks good to me ......

SWEET

I love when you start seeing more blues and pink South of us versus North, a sure indication better times are a coming. I see a few of those solutions here, hopefully more in the days to come.

Will be awaiting for the afternoon EPS with bated breathe. I am hoping for a more favorable West Based NAO. If so, might be tracking at long leads.