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Well now. Of course the GFS is the first issue, and then hour 288 is the second, but very interesting.

For inquiring minds, this is a new outcome out in fantasy land, a split versus a displacement. Or a displacement followed up by a split.

Seems everything has moved up a bit, also as you stated yesterday , I forget the exact specifics , colder versus warmer outcomes the last few days in the modeling may be the trend.

@CAPE Sipping my coffee and enjoying my new monitor which shows these forecasts. What is your latest feelings ? Seems the GEFS looks very nice ! And appears to get colder in time . This is the window which some favor for a SECS Day 6 to 16 .

Can anyone post the over night AO ensemble run from the Euro. Would like to compare it against the CPC data. It appears that forecast drops the AO to - 4 SD near the 7 th of Jan. and after that the forecast members wash out, generally rising, but with no clear consensus.

Even for the lowlands, like us? Ah I see it now, thanks.

This site creates analog packages from the CPC data https://www.daculaweather.com/4_cpc_8-14_analog.php Some examples below.

Yep, too warm and too late. But, the general message could be as the long range turns to medium range the trend to colder wins out. Also, this may block could manifest itself with areas North of us cashing in first and then a general movement South mid month with a more Mid Atlantic type flavor finally going to a suppressed deep South hit. EPS shows several opportunities near mid month, with active tracking near or after the 8 th.

Maybe some indications the intense plunge in the AO can set-up a discharge of arctic air moving SSE across Eastern Canada by mid month and beyond.

I actually agree, totals seem near climo, and does not match the potential of the pattern. Then again, who really knows, and besides the best potential may be after this time period. Anyone seriously considering this as the most likely outcome needs to reassess. However, if the mean hits 5 or more inches then it has real statistical importance and I would get more hopeful of seeing a significant snow event.

Not as much of an issue up North, but from say Wilmington, DE. and points South and Southwest we really do need some colder air poised in our source regions. The cold nearby is marginal at best. As psu stated, it adds another element to consider ( and may I add worry about ) when the 500 pattern screams snowstorm, but in reality it is only rain or snow to rain.

Excellent points. The GFS versus the GEFS is a complete opposite. I would really focus on the Euro and its ensembles to lead the way. Too complex it appears for the GFS Op.

This is a cool animation and notice the subtle negative getting closer to the East coast . Everything thing is retrograding. One could speculate if going forward in time beyond this range the negative may become focused even further SW. Would like to see the Pac to improve further. As psu posted the official reversal near Jan 5th, then if you go by HM's post a few days ago, the coldest air would be near day 20 and beyond, that would be near Jan 25 th. There is not as consensus at the present time from the folks I follow as to the eventual location9s) that impacts the brunt of the SSWE event .

Not saying there is a relationship, but this event is interesting on the heels of the SH SSWE which was remarkable, and I believe long lasting, with an extended period of very deep negatives.

@poolz1 Ed was one of the first, along with Matt Hugo, calling for a Jan SSWE. This is a rare event as Ed mentions, regarding the 100hPa u winds. As for modeling the Euro seasonal also had a SSWE modeled for Jan.

Once they reverse they stay that way for at least 10 days, however, the event is still unfolding and the entire progression will be cool to watch for implications during the month of February.

Exactly. Thank you for clearing that up .

Eric Webb commented that the long-range GEFS was starting to look like a weenie run overnight . This afternoon's run only reinforces that trend and outcome.

Talk dirty......................... I like it.

Ji would have to punt all of January. But, rejoice in February. We shall see.

I am sure that you are aware that the stratospheric warming event seems to pulse the polar vortex into Northern Canada then shifts it around so there may be two great time periods separated by average to even sub-par. The GFS NH polar vortex elipse shows the movement at long range. Also, another or secondary warming may be in the cards. This may lead to another deep dive down in Late Jan. So much to consider.

Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach neutral after being very deeply negative . Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think?

GFS did rather well.

That was one extreme wave 1 event.

Wow, 918 hPa center, just another extreme event. Have a feeling more are on the way , and a couple in our region during the next 8 weeks.