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May go the entire month of February with a - AO. Meanwhile, NW and Western Canada will load with a deepening arctic air mass and it appears that makes it way East in time behind a cutter and then a wave may travel afterwards ushering in the arctic air. When you have as weak vortex, such as we have currently, you can go to this look.

HM update

HM mentioning the AAM moving forward.

Way out there, but one way the pattern evolves. Cold may not be an issue in this time frame. Indices would suggest a high impact winter storm might be possible .

We are LONG overdue for some positive trends in our hood !

Continued blocking in February looking more and more likely, combined with an increasing probability of help form the Pac side , and the ongoing the evolution from the SSWE and colder source regions.

Another interesting look, including the Atlantic side.

Now I am really interested ! Improvements for @CAPE and my area.

Day After Tomorrow This has overall support moving forward. Maybe a wave before this arctic blast and a large storm afterwards, during a relax period. . Initial moisture may be an issue, but it looks like opportunities will be there as mentioned by @MillvilleWx

Best look yet in the 10 day mean

Would think it helps the folks in the Eastern areas possibly. Seems the GEFS members were better as well this morning.

Morning Euro overall held steady and from what I am hearing maybe some subtle improvements in terms of the transfer and trough placement.

Good luck down there. Maybe eventually there will be another snow on snow event. As you mentioned, everything is so complicated when it comes to snow these days.

Even up my way Mount Holly forecast kind of blah. Lots of mentions of rain and it figures we lost the seasonal suppression trend right when we needed it. Nothing really special about this event for the low lands. I really dont care about a few inches of snow. Was hoping for a more offshore solution that helps us area versus the far Western areas.

Excellent post and visuals ! And here in my area both of those were the biggest snows in the last 20 years. Dec 2009 measured 26 inches, and Feb 2003 at 22 inches. In Feb 03 , if not for the sleet would have easily been 30 inches here. Seems what works for your area and for areas near the coastal plain are uniquely different, but makes sense based on your location.

AM EPS looks like a slow movement. Hard to tell thermals but guessing issues for the low lands. Jeez another issue with temps

Good advice , but this is an emotional hobby.

Yeah, I am hoping the outcomes eventually returns to what you posted here. I am also hoping for a slower progression of the system as cold air may wrap back in, but also a quicker and deeper strengthening evolution. A perfect world for us . A stall might be nice for our locations . I imagine the block and how it manifests itself leaves all those options on the table, at least for a couple more days. Hoping for a general consensus to be crushed by Friday evening would certainly set the stage for an exciting weekend. Also, looking to mid Feb it appears we set the table again .

Man, why does the GFS struggle so much. The GFS cycle swings are maddening. Loving the EPS though, but realize we are far from a final outcome. I am ignoring the thermals on the GFS. For @CAPE 's area and mine we really need an all snow event. I still feel there is a path to a mostly snow event in Northern Delaware, because I am not really interested in a front thump of snow.

Couldn't this loop offshore. At a lower latitude?

HM mentioned this. HA event.

It is interesting you say that because some Mets are actually playing the Miller A North of us game