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Exactly, Winds either from the South, SE or the East for days on end. Like to see the EPS later.

Would not be surprised to see that set up you mention in September ( even early October ) at some point. I believe in the past we have had cold frontal passages and then the building High to out North and East a few days after providing a pathway for a runner up the coast. Of course the fine line between a curve out to sea , or a real threat to the SE and Mid Atlantic areas.

You see that persistent Easterly flow and East fetch on some of the modeling. Some wave models bring 8 foot waves into the lower NJ. and Delaware surf zone by the weekend. Strange summer so far. I am just hoping for some NW winds behind a legit early Fall cold front, might need to wait on that. Was at the beach yesterday , and it was a marvelous day with the wife and the kids. Not crowded, surf at about 72 , seagulls didn't eat my pizza .

What ? No way !!!! I don't believe it, unless they hacked Isotherm's formula.

Do you lime ? Or, do you do a soil test ?

Another day another record , another 1,000 year event. https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/ The Delaware Environmental Observing System measured 1.03 inches of rain in just five minutes at its Greenville station near Winterthur, state climatologist Dan Leathers said. According to the NOAA Atlas-14, the document that the National Weather Service uses to examine these types of events, that amount of rain in five minutes would be expected less than once every 1,000 years, Leathers said. Leathers said he and his team were still looking at the storm in more detail Friday night. The storm dumped more than four inches of rain at that Greenville station in around 30 minutes, Leathers said, and the area near Hockessin Fire Co. saw more than three inches of rain. So, too, did the Claymont area. As of 1130 p.m., more than 11,000 Delmarva Power customers were without power. It all happened quickly. The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 5:38 p.m., when a storm with wind gusts of 60 mph and the potential for hail was over Kennett Square, Pa., just over the Pennsylvania state line.

Maue commented in this.

Totally agree. Between the near miss tornado and over 6.75 inches of rain this week, flooding is real . Oh and you might like this video from Bear, DE. regarding the F1 long track , and the recent tornado and severe storms.

Radar indicates that storm in extreme SE PA and Northern DE means business . Torrential rains here now. Streets already flooding .

Another tornado warning in Northern Delaware , Jeez ! Storms moving onto my location now.

Just pointing out two contributors that might be favorable. But honestly, the correlation is not strong and we are currently out of sync with things that use to work, or could be used in a analog set, or at the least, had exhibited some tendencies to be pro cold for our area versus warm. Challenges continue to mount for useful winter seasonal forecasts.

Speaking of Nina odds. A post by Don S yesterday below. If you are wondering today's SOI is + 22.40 Seems to me a good bet we get some sort of Nina developing by Fall. The one thing that interests me is the backdrop of the solar minimum. And, the eventual outcome of the QBO in Dec . and early winter. < Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010. >

From the NYC thread. Check out the drop in SSTs since the tropical storm. Will need several weeks to get them back up . Of note as well

Even the end of next week looks to be rather wet according to Mount Holly's long range outlook. I tend to think if this pattern continues maybe over seeding can commence earlier this year, rather than after Labor Day, as @CAPE mentioned . I keep reading that as the Country dries up drier weather may settle into the East on a extended basis . However, this change seems to continue to push out further and further into the future. From Mount Holly AFD : Looks like the late-week period may be interesting, as the front may stall near or in the area, with deterministic models showing multiple rounds of convection occurring in proximity to it. Certainly a heavy-rain threat from a pattern recognition perspective.

Admiring radar over your area. Incredible !!! Missed the bulk here but precip totals South of me are 2 inches and over. Put those sprinklers into storage . The rare AM electrical storms are lots of fun !

I know I read a couple posts by HM on the QBO behavior during the past 6 months, and even recall some insights as well from Dr Amy Butler. Strange year so far for the QBO for sure. Good luck to those whom want to put out a winter forecast for 20/21. I would say the odds of discovering the correct winter drivers at about 33 %. Those who love the warm train might go climo ( 1990 - 2019 ) + 2 degrees. Those cold and snow weenies better hope for a 95-96 repeat. Sure we can get a cold snow event but difficult to see cold lock in with the same issues re-appearing such as the enhanced fast Pac jet and difficulties in achieving properly timed HL blocking ( or any blocking for that matter) along with the elusive -NAO. Speaking of stratospheric oddities.

@psuhoffman Good points on the post above. Analogs post 2010 have become useless to a degree. And, since 2015 you can probably even reinforce that notion with the Super Nino ( residual ocean warming , etc ) and add to that the recent ocean heat waves taking place. A somewhat newer phenomenon. I see even the great Don Sutherland has added something fitting and new to his weather summaries and look ahead monthly forecasts/stats. PSU , see here ( bolded ) from Don's recent post. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. He is incorporating the new climate warming into his summary, very interesting. For me personally , I see no end to the issues in the Pac this winter that have haunted us the past 3 winters. So many elements in addition to the Pac are negatives for a cold and snowy winter in our part of the world.

After replacing the mulch I had to do it again this morning. That line had a few heavier cells go across the upper Chesapeake Bay/Eastern Shore which dropped .30 inches of rain here last night . Total with TS was 5.75. Ground soil should be good for a while. Refreshing this morning at 67 degrees when I woke up.

And don't forget, that was back in the day when a Nino did what a Nino was suppose to do. In this day and age with global warming the outcomes expected are no longer so simple. Since 2010 there have been noted changes in various mechanisms that would typically deliver cold and snow to the East with a moderate to almost strong El Nino. The use of analogs prior to 2010, to me, prove little value. A blended approach to forecasting the Winter IMHO might be the best way to go. Of course they also need to be tweaked and modified for GW.

HM spoke about this potential yesterday.

True. Hard to combat the high sun angle. With decreasing sun angle getting under way and longer nights coming up the reseeding shall begin. Black Beauty is pretty good. On a weather related note bluewave posted something very interesting a week back that the dews/humidity levels are rising since the last Super Nino. I imagine that may play into the higher overnight minimums in the summer, and the growing issue of mildew, plant fungus , etc. So far this has been the case from back in May :

Wonder if relative to averages we will have seen the worse of the heat after early next week. Have to ponder the possibilities for later August and September. The driest part of the year waits ahead for us, but on the other hand you have to respect the the odds of tropical moisture coming our way, whether directly or indirectly.

Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action, and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling, but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently.

Never easy at our latitude and inland location. I noted a lack of forecasts by many here on this system, too much uncertainty. . .25 inches is not going to cut it on the Euro . I am not so sure about the Mount Holly's rainfall forecast. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we`re currently thinking that we`ll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. But, here is the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2020 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Significant shorter range model differences remain with an Eastern Seaboard coastal low whose potential development is being monitored by NHC. Recent GFS and to a lesser extent GEFS runs have been the most progressive with this low into the Northeast this weekend. Recent UKMET runs have been the most developed. While plausible, the WPC product suite was primarily derived instead from a blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean that offers good continuity for this coastal low and also seems to provide a good forecast starting point and continuity for the rest of the lower 48 days 3-7.

Do you feel the greatest impact and flood threat is to our far NE over Long Island and New England? Looks like dangerous rip tides, high surf, high tidal flooding and poor beach weather to say the least on the NJ and Delaware beaches Friday to Saturday nigh, . Also of note, some very warm SSTs East of VA .