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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    It is simply incredible when you look at the GFS and this morning's European even the GFS ensembles and the huge differences at 120 hours between them. Sometimes folks will mention to GFS has been consistent for 3 days in a row but even that means little. consistency does not necessarily mean accuracy eventually the GFS flipped and went to the European solution I believe this was a few years ago
  2. frd
    Exactly .. some brief wording from the latest Mount Holly AFD. This isn`t a classic coastal low as it will be quickly progressing further off shore once it is east of us, so this doesn`t appear to be a system that will produce blockbuster amounts of snow. That being said, and with the consideration of how much uncertainty there remains with precip type, it will likely be Saturday afternoon before we will have enough confidence for a snow/ice/rain amount forecast that covers the entire event.
  3. frd
    No representation of CAD here. Look at that boundary going West to East over long distances, a bit strange . We need a press of colder air. A while back I believe this was forecasted way colder. I think
  4. frd
    Yep, related to lower dews as mentioned by @MillvilleWx and the colder thermal profiles you posted about. We live in a tough area. I have all my hopes set aside for later next week.
  5. frd
    Mount Holly Meh
  6. frd
    Latest
  7. frd
    The 0z GFS op would be historic for parts of NC and that is why I believe the outcome will not verify. Eric Web mentioned it has been over 40 years since Fayetteville has seen a storm deliver 8 inches of more of snow. Been 65 years for a 12 inch event there. No one should write off the event near the 29 th yet.
  8. frd
    DT going to have to update his SECS checklist. Basically no favorable tele , indices, or pattern will support "significant" snow any longer in our area. We have gone beyond bad luck. This storm if rain will be the fourth time the rug has been pulled. And, if the colder scenario storm on the 28 or 29 th does not deliver that's it for me. The 6z run is a sad site.
  9. frd
    It has weakened and looks to remain so. This next attempt may simply help achieve another round of -AO and hopefully a - NAM state extension or another cycle of it during the month of February.
  10. frd
    Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit.
  11. frd
    Another hit
  12. frd
    I know about suppression but of all the models the GFS showing this concerns me the least.
  13. frd
    Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March, I am intrigued if we can maintain the - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. Here is mid Feb
  14. frd
    @psuhoffman Even going into early Feb , not bad. You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3 rd. Here we are at the 5 th,
  15. frd
    Looking further into Feb. hopefully the retraction delivers by early Feb, then we may go the other way with a Pac extension.
  16. frd
    I would think a few days after this could be the event of the - AO cycle
  17. frd
    Best of the season so far I believe.
  18. frd
    I wish this was tomorrow
  19. frd
    DAMN !!!!!!!!!!
  20. frd
    Well this is surprising
  21. frd
    Some changes
  22. frd
    I be more comfortable with a Key West snowstorm
  23. frd
    Trusting the GFS and its ensembles means that you are certain is has Canada all figured out...... NOT
  24. frd
    4 High pressure systems and rain to my door step. can't believe this crap
  25. frd
    If I got 15 inches of snow the next 15 days I be talking the next ice age.
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