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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    31, + SN, 1.5" on the deck, roads still not covered. Snow and winds picking up. Seems like some better banding forming overhead , not too far North of me the crazy West to East cutoff is clearly visible on radar.
  2. frd
    Latest ICON run for the CAPE storm looks interesting. Of course more snow in the NE versus here, but respectable.
  3. frd
    ALEET !!!!!
  4. frd
    From the site Stratobserve, it appears that a stretched PV might occur during the timeframe from early to mid Jan. Sometimes this can lead to cold air outbreaks and winter storms. Also, the NAM state may be negative during this period.
  5. frd
    After a warmish weekend a rather drastic turn to colder Monday and then we monitor our chances. Some snow would be nice.
  6. frd
    Don't see that too often. I like our chances for the "CAPE" storm.
  7. frd
    Not perfect , but certainly an improvement overall. The EPS looks to lessen the extreme - PNA while still providing a favorable look up top.
  8. frd
    Hmm...over your house, sweet !
  9. frd
    A sleet coated winter wonderland here.
  10. frd
    This is not so exciting if true in the long range.
  11. frd
    I wouldn't bet on it, but there is always hope for a short window of oppurtunity.
  12. frd
    Regimes
  13. frd
    Will be interesting to see if the roll forward analogs do indeed result in a more conducive pattern for cold and snow in the East by early to mid Jan 2022. Certainly appears the cold and snow hits out West first.
  14. frd
    I liked this scatter diagram the best. Snow lovers may want to know: Does a cold winter support a snowy winter? Your grandmother would’ve said so and that common sense answer is the right one. Cold temperatures correlate with a snowy winter better than any of the indices I just discussed. Below is a scatter diagram of winter temperature anomalies and seasonal snowfall.
  15. frd
    Both the EPS and the GEFS support a - 5 PNA. Also, the PNA remains negative for the next 360 hours.
  16. frd
    Some of the seasonal models keep the negative PNA pattern for the duration of the winter. We certainly will need some luck to score at this lower latitude. Cannot overemphasize the importance of some cooperation from the Pac.
  17. frd
    Early to mid Jan cold odds increasing
  18. frd
    Really need some Pac help. At this point a - NAO will not cut it for the low lands.
  19. frd
  20. frd
    - NAO retrograde looks better today, but the Pac is still so so. I feel we are never really going to see anything but a minor window of improvement on the Pac side during the course of the winter. Although there may be a favorable Pac transition in early Jan according to Roundy.
  21. frd
    This is unusual. It did happen in Jan 1980.
  22. frd
    Cool animation. Like Webb states, far from perfect, but shows one possible progression moving forward.
  23. frd
    Will need to watch this constructed analog progression in the weeks ahead centered on 1-13-22.
  24. frd
    Fits @brooklynwx99 's roll-forward West based - NAO research. Pretty cool !
  25. frd
    Interesting as well are the changes in the placement and orientation of the PV as we near the end of the month.
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