frd

Pretty wide expanse in the snowfall

For the NE part of the forum

I hope its the Norovirus because I am liking the puke fest ! But honestly, that RGEM SW - NE deform axis is consistent as @MillvilleWx just stated.

Northern Delaware Some consistency here possibly

@CAPE hour 81

Damn, the thing that caught my eye are the winds, for any METS out there, would any area meet the 3 hour requirement for a blizzard criteria ? I would speculate to even get close it would have to happen during the second part of the storm, when it intensifies, to hit the visibility and wind criteria, but I was just wondering. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-PAZ101-102-300915- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.210131T1500Z-210202T0600Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem- Cumberland-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Millville, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, and Kennett Square 314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph creating significant blowing and drifting of snow. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning or evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop west to east Sunday morning and last through late Monday or early Tuesday. A period of wintry mix or rain could occur Sunday night and Monday morning before turning back to snow mid-day on Monday. The highest snow totals and snowfall rates are most likely to occur late Monday.

Very insightful. As you can see from Dr. Butler's images, it shows the averaged surface temp response form all SSWes, and then the other image represents the surface temps from Jan 5 to the 23 rd. Clear to see the colder temp response was on the other side of the pole in the NH during that time period. Amy makes the point that due to various factors, ( ie. Arctic blocking location, North Atlantic jet stream ) when we look at this again in 60 days based on a colder pattern change coming up here in Eastern NA., we may experience colder surface temps.

1055 High just North of Montana , Brrr . As @psuhoffman mentioned, we need some help from the SE ridge, if not, the pattern may go cold and dry. I think there is potential here. ju

Thanks, I am very close to the MD state line right below the C & D Canal. My location may help. Seems I may be able to take advantage of the coma head and the front end thump of snow. Good luck to you !

Having the UKMET support the GFS, GEM and ICON makes me feel a lot better.

Very true, one small feature can have dramatic effects.

Wonder when the short wave trough up in New England gets modeled correctly? Jack Sillin mentioned this feature this morning and I posted about it, as you may be aware. I could speculate that if the afternoon Euro today comes in more GFS/PARA /ICON-ish then maybe we can feel a little more confident that it will not be a negative factor for us.

Since we are closer the the event, even though complexities remain, do you regard the GFS modeling of the event as plausible, or do you weigh more towards the EPS/Euro , or use a blend of the Euro, GFS, Canadian, etc. if you were say going to word this in the afternoon AFD from Mount Holly. Thanks

Interesting observation from Jack regarding the Canadian versus the Euro. Keep this feature in mind in future model runs.

From HM, lower part

Based off some comments from HM along with other modeling I would speculate the EPS might cave to the GEFS longer term colder ideas.

Deepest - AO is yet to arrive. Very impressive dive from already negative values.

Losing respect for the EPS. I can't believe the latest possible trends. Still hopeful, but jeez it's never easy. Thought the EPS was solid after yesterday's runs. But, the overnight and this AM.'s Euro is a bit disappointing.

@poolz1 The GEFS did well as Ventrice mentioned, identifying the cold period , see below. And check out the GEFS 18z I believe the GEPS is also cold, but the EPS is not. Maybe the EPS will move towards the GEFS This vortex feature near Feb 10 th. swings through.

Latest NAM state forecast

Looks great for us ! Can't ask for more at this time.

@psuhoffman thoughts ? More spread?