frd

Latest satellite shows rapid intensification.

All systems GO !

Not a great link, but it looks like a beast already. Massive cloud shield currently, and incredible /SST energy source in its path. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=EXTENT&length=24

Ah....................... the anti-concensus approach. Recently during the past five winters that thinking has worked out rather well most of the times.

Tremendous flood potential for the Western Gulf states, not too mention the wind threat/ storm surge from an extreme Cat 4 or even 5 hurricance.

Second storm in the series just went through, which intensified and has prompted a SSW for points South of me. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 714 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northern Kent County in central Delaware... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 714 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Green Spring, or 8 miles south of Middletown, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... Dover, Middletown, Smyrna, Camden, Clayton, Cheswold, Woodside, Hartly, Rising Sun-Lebanon, Hazlettville, Delaney Corner, Dover Base Housing, Dover Speedway, Green Spring, Rising Sun, Townsend, Wyoming, Odessa, Kenton and Little Creek.

Big time storm here. Moving SE from Elkton, MD. into Middletown and nearby areas.

Any thoughts on September ? With a robost WAR reinforced with warm Atlantic SSTs it appears the usual heat/warmth of summer extends well into the Fall. Here is the recently issued Accu-weather Canadian Fall forecast which indicates warmer than normal over wide areas.

Thats why I go to Wildwood. The reason is two fold, the man made grade used is much steeper, versus natural beach slopes, and the quality of the source is different meaning they used pebbles at one time mixed in. This is a good link. https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2015/07/03/blame-renourishment-crushing-waves/29665321/ Here is a look at generated wave heights with the storm this weekend.

FYI. From Accuweather feed: Water temperatures were close to the peak for the year and were inviting in all of those places. As of Thursday, the ocean temperatures off the Outer Banks were 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit. The water temperature at beaches in Atlantic City was 79.0 F, 74.3 F in the waters off Montauk and 75.6 F near Nantucket. However, AccuWeather forecasters warn that dangers such as rough surf and strong rip currents will be a concern through Saturday in this zone. A 50-year-old father and his 28-year-old son were killed in a rip current near the Oak Island Pear in North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon, according to WECT. Bystanders pulled the father from the water, but emergency responders were unable to save him. A two-hour search ensued for his son, who was still missing, but his body was later recovered. According to data from NOAA, more people have died as a result of rip currents on a yearly basis over the last decade than from lightning strikes or due to impacts from extreme cold combined.

Without researching it in depth I would think that ship reports came into play.

Fascinating loop, ( focus on the second loop not the first) , espcially if you run it and pause it. I like to look at the end of the run/ loop, at that feature moving across Canada, and into the Northeast. Rather robust at that range.

Looking at the surf zone wave models currently, it appears that some legit surfing potential for those experienced enough will occur this weekend along the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. Of course I favor the NJ beaches because decade long beach repleneshmnet along the DE beaches has caused more of a shore break to occur. Wave modeling indicating 5 Foot waves with a period of 14 seconds arriving from the SE on Saturday with a more West wind off the land on Sunday . Still iffy though on the exact wave forecasts, as the various wave models are still in a bit of disagreement.

Some pretty nasty ripe tides may show up tomorrow on the New Jersey beaches such as AC., Wildwood, etc. and then progress South to Delaware beaches on Saturday it appears.

1.57 inches here. Not too shabby, however, the rainfall distribution very scattered in nature.

The famous and destrcutive Hurricane of 1938 was moving at an incredible 47 mph. Wow ! On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. The storm hit Long Island and Southern Connecticut on September 21, moving at a forward speed of 47 mph!

Areas East have some good juice

Wow, finally some rain and training storms. Enough rain to issue a FFW. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 156 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have already fallen at some locations. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New Castle, Delaware City, Newport, Bear, Saint Georges, and Glasgow. This includes the following highways... Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 0 and 16.

Force field over Northern Delaware. So far 0.00

That is indeed true, many seasonal warmth records have been achieved during the past 5 to 10 years along the Western pheriphery of the robost WAR. Going from New England right down into the Eastern regions of the SE states. Of note though, this summer the Atlantic SSTs are not as warm as recent summers.

Later August might really warm up from DC and points NE.

Most of the real beneficial rains misses areas that really need it.

Rainfall totals for the Eastern areas really doesn't look like anything too special. Very speculative looking out determining where greater than half an inch of rain may fall. Could very well be a dry week for certain areas despite the clouds .

I hope it's more widespread this time.

That might change this week. LOL.