frd

Thinking another bust rainfall forecast coming up? Amounts coming down , and radar looks pathetic. Talk of excessive rains have slowly evolved to .25 inches , if we are lucky. I don't need or want a flood but some rain for the flowers would be nice.

Maybe will get some rain, meanwhile, a special marine warning for the upper Bay has been issued. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1001 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD... Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD... * Until 1130 PM EDT. * At 1000 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 nm northwest of Havre De Grace to 13 nm west of Middle River, moving east at 25 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Boaters in small craft could be thrown overboard by suddenly higher winds and waves capsizing their vessel. * Locations impacted include... Northeast River, Turkey Point, Pooles Island, Spesutie Island, Gunpowder River and Aberdeen Proving Ground.

Yeah, dissapointing so far. Is it going to be a busted forecast around my parts? Mount Holly says 80 % chance of rain .5 to .75 inches. Thats more than showers. Radar looks like a bust coming up, but we will see. . Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 1am and 2am. Patchy fog after 4am. Low around 64. South wind around 5 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Yep, we do wind rather well in these parts, and this event has the potential to be a memorable one, due to the long duration as mentioned in the AFD and the peak gusts. Only savings grace is that the ground is not saturated for once.

You sure? Ask Mulder, you might be surprised

Even now it does not look good for a mostly sunny day. Sector Images_ Northeast - NOAA _ NESDIS _ STAR.html

High Wind event possibly on the way - National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 513 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 In the wake of the front, a secondary vorticity lobe (stronger than previously expected) is forecast to dive quickly south across the region. This will be accompanied by a low-level surge in cold air advection as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten behind the departing and intensifying low. West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as a result, especially into the evening hours, as mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels. Models indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-45+ kts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts potentially increasing to the 45-50+ mph range during the evening hours. At this point, a Wind Advisory seems probable for at least some if not most of the area, but given the major shift in the forecast, confidence is not particularly high on the details of this strong wind threat at this time. We will continue to monitor this threat.

And the sun is where?

The trend, as you know, has been to decrease rainfall chances late week. Will look to dry up as the week progresses as well. Rather low chances of anything meaningful as the sunlight lenght of day increases. I expect the ramp up in ocean surf zone temps to pick up this week.

Denver has been a jackpot of snow for months on end. 5 inches yesterday my daughter said, and all the cold from the - AO the last 4 months spent the entire winter way out West. Look at this, wow !

40 mph gusts later on top of incredible CAA......

Crazy thunderstorm over night here and in Northern DE. with few intense lightening strikes and it prompted MH to issue a flood advisory in a area that was previously forecasted to only have a 20 % chance of showers. Unusual rainfall events continue right where they left off previously. Ground very saturated.

Big time warmth under the block over Eastern Canada , very anomalous patter there.

Who cares if there is a - AO. Give me a + PNA.

Inflation is increasing !

I wish for severe cold next winter. What a depressing winter it was here. Cold could never penetrate East. How about all the snow maps with at times 30 inches or more snow depicted. What a joke Para was and even EPS did poorly. Only psu got his snow. The - NAO cycle may be starting, but as you know impossible to tell. No need to even worry about what next winter will bring, until at least November. I would expect the same typical pattern warm September, warm October and then the sudden flip to colder. Looking at the Atlantic I am glad I had several trees removed. Looks like a warm Atlantic already. Once we get away from West winds the next few days and well below average air temps I look for a quick warm up for the surf zone. The SW Atlantic is above normal at this time.

Soil moisture levels in this region must be off the charts, still ponding on roads and fields after the last event. Incredible.

Another 1 inch plus event , seems anything less than an inch is rare these days, that counts Winter and summer, spring and fall. Sucks ! When you are driving around look at your lawns and and woods and see the new establishment of evasive weeds and rough house blue grass, taking over golf courses and manicured lawns. Very interesting. Onion grass also making a comeback as top soils erode and the moisture and feedback cycle supports these new weeds and grasses.

Mount Holly - " Rogue - severe caliber gusts " Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be issued for the afternoon package.

I feel this is the same old crap from last spring and summer ....rain, and more rain. Never just showers. What was suppose to be showers has ened up with flash flooding here. Nasty day with the weeds already growing. I actually prefer a drought. If this were a snowstorm would underperform, of course since it is rain, its a flood, par for the course.

Hey, @Weather Will I was looking forward to snow today, but it was actaully nice outside. I mean it was 27 degrees this morning, so that counts for something I guess.

Why would you have thought March would be better ? Nothing really showed that two weeks ago. Pac sucks. PNA , AO and NAO not playing nice. Shorter wave lenghts was the only hope, but in a winter such as this past one, persistent failure would always be the most likely outcome. Good bye stupid Para snowfall maps, hello sunshine. Was another frustrasting winter in these parts. I still hear from the plow guys, soon to be grass cutters, that snowfall predictions were always 1/4 of what was forecasted.

Pretty sure if the Para couldn't deliver us the digital snow in Jan and Feb in a extremely blocked pattern, then for sure it will be wrong for about the 40th time this winter with that depiction you posted. All I can say is I love winter storms, but for now, Good bye winter ! Hello Spring ! Looking forward to rain free weather and temps near 70 degrees next week. My emotional state has already improved. Planning my landscaping now, and enjoying the sun and outdoors.

Might get out today and do some yard work. Had several large trees removed and stumps grounded. CAPE can you recommend what to do with the grindings? I am thinking I can use them in the back of my property for natural mulch as they hopefully break down over time, I do not want to use them right next to the house because I read there can be termite issues. Have to research that more. Thanks And wow, it looks great next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And finally some drying.

It surely does. Has been a huge factor for a long time. I move on to next winter and see what the Pac has to offer. I don't care about the AO or the NAO all I want is a frigid Canada and then a great Pac. IMHO Going to take miracles for us to get decent snowstorms in the future.