frd

GEFS A hair North compared to 12z

1059 mb @webberweather 1058-1059mb is the MSLP record to beat for Feb in SW Canada and the northern Rockies. 12z Euro is breaking that at day 9. 2:08 PM · Feb 2, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

OMG, If your posting here it's getting real !

You had to go there, didn't you.

I like 2/10 to 2/18

Did you see the almost 1060 High pressure system above Montana at 240 hours in the Euro HI - Res ?

Interesting, look out West as well.

I recall the famous December 4 th or 5 th snowstorm from 2002 I believe. The lead into that great winter, and a great tip off to the potential as well for the months ahead. We had 6 to 8 inches of snow here. The following day my daughter had piano lessons, I recall taking her out that morning and with the incoming cold air combined with deep snow cover we achieved a low of 6 or 7 degrees F. I believe. Snow cover, if deep enough, as you know is a real boost to lower temps at night and the day as well.

I do a lot better in moderate Ninos, even strong ones with blocking here.

The 10 day threat may just move East

Next Friday , this may be the Webb over running event, hard to tell.

Next one

Its prime climo, I expect better. Up North has a better climo, we all know that, but honestly look at some of those totals from the last storm. . I guess I am also frustrated by this last storm, was forecasted to get 10 inches and only received 4 inches.

Sucks for us here yet AGAIN according to the Euro . Actually I rather go frigid and miss all the modeled snow with a threat of suppression. Same areas that got screwed the last three days get screwed again.

GEFS

CMC

Wondering whether the GFS is over doing the cold intensity and placement, so possibly this results in too much suppression. However, as you mention, it is a Nina so the GFS can not be discounted at this time.

Going to require some phasing, lets see the afternoon EPS . I can't wait 10 days for more snow.

If the afternoon EPS comes in again like last night we will have multiple threats to consider moving towards mid month. I feel the GFS is not handing Canada well and the evolution of the TPV.

Amy's post looking even better. Meaning after 60 days the composite will look more like a typical SSW response here in NA , even more in the NE I believe.

Update

Here we go again

Source regions getting primed to deliver arctic air over large areas of the country. Combined with snow cover and looking nasty.