frd
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Everything posted by frd
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AAM looks like it might fall off later in the month. However, the last image shows what a - GLAMM might look like with anomilies less than -0.5
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Seems the last few years the best patterns for us never coincides with our best climo. Last year when we thought we were going to get nailed by extreme cold and snow ( during the strong blocking episode ) the entire threat area shifted way SW leading to the crippling Texas snow/ice and severe cold outbreak. I believe the block shifted West and we were left with scraps.
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Low of 30 with frost.
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Signal is there for a big storm. I am sure New England will cash in.
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Significant changes in concensus moving forward with the AO. Most members take it negative. A great sign moving forward. Also, no sign at the moment that the SPV and the TPV are going to couple. Also of interest is the robust signal for a very negative NAO moving forward. Could be an active and cold weather period for the East later in the month and in early December.
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More support growing for a - NAO later this month. Extensive Atlantic wave breaking is forecasted leading up to this.
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This Friday night will be the coldest of the season so far. Snow showers for some before 8 or 9 AM. Friday morning.
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This might help the back end of winter I believe since there is a delay from ocean to atmosphere. Do you know how long it actually takes to occur, if indeed it focuses more East by early to mid December?
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Interesting potential on a - NAO signal out in time. If it happens then the question is, does it retrograde further WSW in a ideal Davis Straight block.
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If your kitchen is hot on Thanksgiving Day you might get relief this year by opening the windows verus needing the AC on.
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Snow showers in the forecast here for this coming Friday, I had to look twice, thought I was in the wrong zone. Friday A chance of snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Pretty cool loop.
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That event produced here and was actually under-forecasted. Given it was mid-November it made the event more remarkable. I still remember the long traffic delays.
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WPO is going to tank and hopefully stay that way into December.
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Very interesting descending QBO numbers so far. Some analogs related to this would lead to a cold, and potentially stormy December in the East.
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Latest data supports a potentially colder December. Good luck with your forecast. A cold holiday period would be great, some snow would make it even better !
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Looking interesting
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Seasonal versus the drivers.
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Heavy frost and freeze here. Growing season is over. This is actually earlier than last year by several weeks.
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What a useless model. Flips every day. Best skill seems to be the last 6 days of the month for the month ahead.
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PV getting stronger now before a possible weakening later in the month.
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Snow cover, both in Eurasian and North America, look pathetic. If you thought last winter had a rough start this looks even worse. As HM mentioned things are looking ZZZ..... in the snow cover department.
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Recent trends are starting to back up the idea that the PV starts to weaken again by mid to late month along with lessening zonal winds and possibly a change in the NAM state.
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