frd

I like this part. Through 12-16Z, strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow appears likely to contribute to a gradually consolidating and expanding area of moderate snow across a large portion of the Mid South. It appears that the heaviest snow may become focused just ahead of a frontal wave, across parts of western into middle Tennessee, where models suggest that lift will become maximized in the dendritic growth zone, near the nose of the better low-level Gulf moisture return (including precipitable water on the order of .50-.70 inches). This may include a couple hour period with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour.

Wonder if the GFS will lead again by 24 hours on its outcome based on the possibility of it doing better in sampling the shortwave. Will be cool to watch.

Models have been hinting of a storm near the 15 th or 16 th. A time period of interest. Robust + PNA spike near this time frame and a elongated PV is forecasted as well.

Wow ! Another possible Eastern area special on the way. Love it !

Sorry, the Dark Side made me post this. But, maybe this simply portends an active pattern ahead ......

Pretty sunset out there now. l

Brrr........ maybe too. Clipper time

Maybe the Euro which tends to be over amped at times will correct somewhat to the GEFS and CMC outcomes. Certainly appears cold enough. The same areas that did well might do well again.

Crazy band Southeast of you, as you are aware, but maybe the end of the storm will have a decent band when it passes from West to East. Congrats on your big snowfall ! Pic looks awesome down there !

Ripping snow here, up to 6 inches. 29 degrees F.

31, + SN, 1.5" on the deck, roads still not covered. Snow and winds picking up. Seems like some better banding forming overhead , not too far North of me the crazy West to East cutoff is clearly visible on radar.

Latest ICON run for the CAPE storm looks interesting. Of course more snow in the NE versus here, but respectable.

ALEET !!!!!

From the site Stratobserve, it appears that a stretched PV might occur during the timeframe from early to mid Jan. Sometimes this can lead to cold air outbreaks and winter storms. Also, the NAM state may be negative during this period.

After a warmish weekend a rather drastic turn to colder Monday and then we monitor our chances. Some snow would be nice.

Don't see that too often. I like our chances for the "CAPE" storm.

Not perfect , but certainly an improvement overall. The EPS looks to lessen the extreme - PNA while still providing a favorable look up top.

Hmm...over your house, sweet !

A sleet coated winter wonderland here.

This is not so exciting if true in the long range.

I wouldn't bet on it, but there is always hope for a short window of oppurtunity.

Regimes

Will be interesting to see if the roll forward analogs do indeed result in a more conducive pattern for cold and snow in the East by early to mid Jan 2022. Certainly appears the cold and snow hits out West first.

I liked this scatter diagram the best. Snow lovers may want to know: Does a cold winter support a snowy winter? Your grandmother would’ve said so and that common sense answer is the right one. Cold temperatures correlate with a snowy winter better than any of the indices I just discussed. Below is a scatter diagram of winter temperature anomalies and seasonal snowfall.