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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    @psuhoffman Cold air gone for next week, big change. Well, at least according to the GFS.
  2. frd
    I am not an expert on using GFS 100HPA eddy heat flux but when I do look at the animation moving forward there seems to have made a rather big change . I don't see the trough digging on the East coast any longer. Everything seems to be West to East . basically flatter until at least the 17 th of Feb.
  3. frd
    Did you see there were some "subtle " positive changes.
  4. frd
    Cool animation, focus on the 12 th As others have mentioned, will need for the block to turn and retro before we really have a true threat to track.
  5. frd
    Too bad the ICON is trash .
  6. frd
    Here we have the GFS animation frames
  7. frd
    Here we have the updated 35 day 10 hPa 60 N GEFS, notice after this brief reversal, we approach and even exceed the ERA5 mean moving forward near the middle of the month. Looking at the PV on animation moving forward it seems to get itself better organized late in the period. Not sure if this is this is correct because the GOES-5 does not go past 240 hours with the animation, while the GFS goes to 384 hours.
  8. frd
    Very interesting. As others have mentioned we may indeed see a repeating / recycling of the - NAO in Feb and possibly into March as well. Of course 09-10 had a Nino versus this year's Nina. So far that may be the reason for less snowfall in our region versus locations much further NE. Here in the Mid Atlantic do great with a STJ/ overrunning from Ninos into 1040 High placed to our North. You know the deal. Tougher in a Nina. more play with the Northern jet/ spacing issues, etc.
  9. frd
    I knew someone would mention that. I wouldn't worry based on other modeling at this point.
  10. frd
    Crazy difference here . Remember the goofy control, which I personally hate, showing feet of snow. We need to get through the initial cold and other issues first. I am still bitter about the bust from this last storm. I will not be suckered in by means, ensembles, CIPS, etc. , unless the snow is uncomplicated.
  11. frd
  12. frd
    Just a bit of a change
  13. frd
    A bit outdated but still worth viewing Coldest map release in over a decade !!!!!!
  14. frd
    Check this out - 4 Wow !!
  15. frd
    Thought I heard they degraded
  16. frd
    The look beyond this period is nuts ! The players modeled normally proceed big dog events. I still like 2/10 to 2/17 and even beyond
  17. frd
    Cold Air Outbreak
  18. frd
    Brrr
  19. frd
    Coldest version yet Notice the cold settling South and directed ESE and almost a - 4 SD cold near Northern Montana.
  20. frd
    Couple issues with timing and suppression. Similar concerns from before. Now watch the cold come and we go dry. Not sure I buy the UKMET snowfall.
  21. frd
    What in the world made accu weather jump the gun forecasting , even though two options were presented, that a huge snowstorm would hit the East Coast ? It never was even close .
  22. frd
    EPS hour 120 and then 126. If there is going to be a storm to effect us, it looks to be a fast mover with the arctic air mass on its heels.
  23. frd
  24. frd
    Accu Weather with this these 2 possible outcomes
  25. frd
    GEFS A hair North compared to 12z
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