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frd

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  1. frd
    Cold initially favoring Asia and Europe, then as the MJO progresses, along with favorable changes in Pac., arctic airhopefully makes it way towards us near the holidays, along with increased odds of storminess. Expansive cold centered near December 9 th over Europe and Asia.
  2. frd
    Pac jet intensifies near Japan and causes the previously modeled Western ridge to go poof. Again the very fast Pac flow overpowers. This goes back to conversations from 2018-19 regarding the Western Pac super warm pool , causing increased warmer MJO phases, which possibly last longer. Plenty of times the last several winters where the fast Pac flow erroded Western ridge/ + PNAs, and also flooded Canada with Pac puke airmasses. Hopefully as we go deeper into the winter season this concern may reduce, allowing a more typical Nino Jan. and Feb to take hold.
  3. frd
    More realistic potential versus the never correct Euro Control run.
  4. frd
    Wow, an area along and West of the lower Eastern Shore with 70 % probability of above normal snowfall. Our area firmly in the 40 % probability of above normal snowfall. Looks hopeful.
  5. frd
    SECSyyyyy Me like !!!
  6. frd
    SSTs of Nino region 4 have really increased recently. This Nino is still ramping up.
  7. frd
    May emerge in phase 8 at a low amplitude prior to the holidays, meanwhile the AO looks awesome as we head into December.
  8. frd
    And so it begins
  9. frd
    The trends with the AO have been remarkable in regards to forecasts of such a deep dive into the negative. -3.0 deviation forecast for early December and no real rebound afterwards of significance. Just need moisture and maybe we score after the 7th.
  10. frd
    If using similiar rollovers would that not lead to/and or support a higher probability of MECS later in Jan and early Feb ? I am liking the overall trends here with the Pac and the HL. Hopefully, no fakeouts this winter season.
  11. frd
    Do you believe the pattern evolving with an improved Pac leads to a cold stormy outlook for the East in mid December, leading up to and including the holidays?
  12. frd
    Better odds than last December when the block was further South and the West Coast set up was slightly different. AO progged to be diving just prior to this time.
  13. frd
    Last December also had a great Greenland block. Maybe just bad luck. But to me the Pac rules.
  14. frd
    Can you imagine the excitement if we transition to colder will possible snow towards the end of December to coincide with the winter solstice I have been waiting for that for many many years.
  15. frd
    Resulting in this from the GFS / GEFS for early December. Hoping for a favorable look up top as we near later December, or even sooner, to better coincide with mid to late December snowfall climo.
  16. frd
    Looks like cross polar flow there. Nice Pac. No signs of a - NAO yet. But, the Pac will trump the Atlantic.
  17. frd
    Currently going in the opposite direction. And even with a deep AO the cold in recent years all dumped out West and even into Texas.
  18. frd
    4 out of the last 6 years there has been record North America snow cover in December, with several of those winters showing indications of a weaker PV demonstrated by significant periods of a negative AO. A few Decembers during this period had a cold weather in the East. However, the majority lost the record snow cover and it turned warmer after mid to late December. Not sure if any one signal, or long range model has any accuracy in this day and age. Even the periods with a deeply negative AO , a great indicator of snow potential , produced very little, if any snowfall here. Seems possible that a perfect Pacific pattern may be needed to produce snowfall in the Mid Atlantic region.
  19. frd
    BWI: Nov 12 IAD: Nov 11 DCA: Nov 13 RIC: Nov 13 BWI Departure: +1.1
  20. frd
    If the same outcome would happen in the NH looking for the first signs by early December. This is one way to ruin a possible decent setup with a Negative and descending QBO and West based forcing.
  21. frd
    I feel depressed, must be seasonal sun disorder, lots of people have it. Coffee is awesome, but some sun and D3 would do wonders.
  22. frd
    I believe the seasonal modelas have the best look since 15-16, however, wondering if the polar state changes late Fall despite the early favorablre look up top due to the increased water vapor injecting at the high lattitudes causing a possible colder general look up top with less blocking. Otherwise, hopeful at this time.
  23. frd
    I am very hopeful regarding a - QBO, but worried about the water vapor release from the erruption of Honga Tonga messing things up and cooling the PV starting in late Fall. .
  24. frd
    Pretty cool radar loop showing intensification right up until the point of landfall.
  25. frd
    to add to that
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