WxUSAF

2 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. 

That's banding.  Descending air on either wide of the deathband creates warming.  Notice the very cold (comparatively) temperatures just east of it.  @CAPE and @JakkelWx are turned on by that.  

Me driving home from picking up my daughter at 1-115pm

Then I saw the Euro when I got home

Then I saw the CCB Wednesday evening into Thursday morning

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

We abscond?  

If somehow that 10:1 euro snowmap verifies, that sound you'll hear at 2am Thursday is me running naked up and down Route 108.  

Euro saves Christmas 

Seems fairly clear to me the OH valley low is no longer any issue. We’ve solved that riddle. What’s left is the precise surface low track. And it seems to me that all these seeming big changes are just due to subtle differences in where the surface low gets captured by the upper level energy and how offshore convection torques things. The convection is going to remain a wildcard. The upper level part may get nailed down a bit more, but these aren’t radical changes by any means for a ~72hr forecast. Of course it makes a huge difference in sensible wx outcome to most of us.

GGEM does keep ticking west but it’s also hauling ass. Has a really nice front end thump but that’s most of the show.

GFS CCB NSFW

GFS UHI is always amped 

HoCo bullseye. Lock it the F UP!

Had a little rain overnight

Torch now. Sun angle is warm. 4” soil temp could fry an egg.

Uhoh

Everyone except maybe the I81 crew should be rooting for a slightly more progressive solution. Gives us more snow with the probable added benefit of screwing SNE (sorry @WxWatcher007). 

1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me.

New thread...

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Agree.  I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one.  I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.

Latitude and elevation are going to help, as always. @mappy and @psuhoffman are in ideal spots for the deform band as always. But yeah, there’s a risk for the 495 area that it translates farther NE and you get scraped but miss out on the nest. Let’s root for yesterday’s 12z euro scenario!

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 

Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas

Good morning. Someone start a storm thread!

14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m at like 325’ and 4-5 miles west of 95. Definitely west of the fall line and at some elevation, but too close to feel that climbing-a-pole feeling in these situations. 

Same. I’m 370-380’ two miles from 95. It helps. A lot in many situations. But still close enough to be dicey compared to the M-D line crew.

5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Let the Fall Line do Fall Line things. Don't overthink it.

I love being above the Fall Line 

Sorry @CAPE

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc?  Tomorrow...or 72 hours...?

Basically. I’d say the Monday 0z runs is where the Op runs are the focus. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z EPS is a touch colder at 850 and surface overall- the duration of above 0 850 temps is shorter compared to 12z.

My yard only gets to a max of 41at the surface compared to 43 at 12z lol. Trending!

If the 18z Eps is exactly right, you should get something on the front end and the back. Just a lot of rain in the middle...

Well, we took some flack, but we made it through D-4 intact and still on course. D-3 comes next. We lower the landing gear after the 0z Monday runs. 

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event.

Show that SLP and 500 track in winter and the 0th order assumption should be WSW snow for most of LWX WFO zone. 

Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF one other minor different wrt 18z euro. The thermal boundary shifted north ever so slightly in southern VA by like 10-15 miles but the cold is still draining increasing the gradient so the entire profile didn’t retreat just along the edge. However, it’s colder west of the apps in KY on top of the primary. I don’t the primary would make it as far north on the 18z v 12z. That is provably a trade off I would take for the ever so slight changes in the temps and pressure among the coast.  Thoughts?

Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details. 

@tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers.