WxUSAF

HoCo bullseye. Lock it the F UP!

Had a little rain overnight

Torch now. Sun angle is warm. 4” soil temp could fry an egg.

Uhoh

Everyone except maybe the I81 crew should be rooting for a slightly more progressive solution. Gives us more snow with the probable added benefit of screwing SNE (sorry @WxWatcher007). 

1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me.

New thread...

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Agree.  I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one.  I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.

Latitude and elevation are going to help, as always. @mappy and @psuhoffman are in ideal spots for the deform band as always. But yeah, there’s a risk for the 495 area that it translates farther NE and you get scraped but miss out on the nest. Let’s root for yesterday’s 12z euro scenario!

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 

Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas

Good morning. Someone start a storm thread!

14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m at like 325’ and 4-5 miles west of 95. Definitely west of the fall line and at some elevation, but too close to feel that climbing-a-pole feeling in these situations. 

Same. I’m 370-380’ two miles from 95. It helps. A lot in many situations. But still close enough to be dicey compared to the M-D line crew.

5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Let the Fall Line do Fall Line things. Don't overthink it.

I love being above the Fall Line 

Sorry @CAPE

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc?  Tomorrow...or 72 hours...?

Basically. I’d say the Monday 0z runs is where the Op runs are the focus. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z EPS is a touch colder at 850 and surface overall- the duration of above 0 850 temps is shorter compared to 12z.

My yard only gets to a max of 41at the surface compared to 43 at 12z lol. Trending!

If the 18z Eps is exactly right, you should get something on the front end and the back. Just a lot of rain in the middle...

Well, we took some flack, but we made it through D-4 intact and still on course. D-3 comes next. We lower the landing gear after the 0z Monday runs. 

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event.

Show that SLP and 500 track in winter and the 0th order assumption should be WSW snow for most of LWX WFO zone. 

Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF one other minor different wrt 18z euro. The thermal boundary shifted north ever so slightly in southern VA by like 10-15 miles but the cold is still draining increasing the gradient so the entire profile didn’t retreat just along the edge. However, it’s colder west of the apps in KY on top of the primary. I don’t the primary would make it as far north on the 18z v 12z. That is provably a trade off I would take for the ever so slight changes in the temps and pressure among the coast.  Thoughts?

Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details. 

@tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers.

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other.

What storm?

@psuhoffman look again at the 12z euro SLP track. 
102hr off south end of OBX.

108hr mouth of the Bay

114hr due north (!) over Rehobeth beach 

120hr moves southeast (!) out to sea

This is all about how the upper level energy stacks and captures the surface low. Get it to stack in a good place, and we get nuked. As it is, that’s why we get an awesome CCB death band on the euro. Get it to stack in a poor place and it’s 

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Isn’t it consistent with 12z EPS, which was pretty far west?

Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see. 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

THIS IS TOTAL CRAP. Handled with all of the aplomb DT is know for.

It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. 
 

Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. 

D^T says toss that ish!

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The jump due north between 96-102 is odd imo.

Look at those ensemble members in @NorthArlington101s maps. Can’t be 100% sure without individual panels, but looks like some also move due north between those panels. Difference is they’re all farther east when they do it vs the Op. I think the SLP center is following where the shortwave turns negatively tilted. 

^nice pull @NorthArlington101. Op definitely looks like a western outlier. Mouth of the bay to east of OCMD is classic.