WxUSAF

4 minutes ago, Disc said:

Sleet/freezing rain mix in Blacksburg. 25.7F

A bit ahead of schedule it seems?

Yesterday evening my daughter asked if I could show her “my” radar. I told her there wasn’t anything to show her at that point but I’d show her today. 
 

Im not sure she knows the difference between radar and a model...

Just now, catoctin wx said:

I've been away for so long that I need to reorient myself to the weenie meltdown craziness.

The kids are going to be turned up to 11 today so the earlier the snow starts the better

I told the kids snow starting around 10am. I’m going to get pestered every minute after 10am if it’s not...

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

oh goodie an inch of sleet lol

I get 2”. Jealous??

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I know March 2017 was mentioned earlier as a possible comparison to this one. There was also a storm in 2007 I think where it was supposed to maybe snow a bit and then turn to ice and then rain and we got way more snow than expected. Maybe six inches or something. It was on a weekend and I had to work and I remember it being a really tough commute home on 695.

I had over 4” of snow and sleet in March 2017. At this point that would be fantastic. A euro solution would do it.

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Dang. I think we might lose you all in Columbia today to liquification 

Good luck @WxUSAF  @Scraff @osfan24 

I saw your 3-7” forecast! No takebacks!!

Euro looked quite nice for me. Not sure I’d even ever change to rain. I’ll hug that and let it ride. 
 

Got down to 27 overnight and now 28/20.

I’m hugging the hrrrr. Jesus take the wheel 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Agreed. Only thing i’d MAYBE change is the pocket near HoCo up to North Baltimore county... they could see more than 2-4 on the WAA thump alone 

If there’s a good WAA thump more like hrrr, euro, or gfs I could get 2-4” from that alone. Add in the backside band could put down another 1-3” and I’m looking at warning criteria. Or if the WAA craps out before thermal profile goes to hell and the backside doesn’t happen I’m left with a dusting of sleet.

Healthy backside band on the 3k. That’s the best thing I like about it.

30/21

38 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hold down the fort @WxUSAF I gotta take a dog to the emergency vet, fairly certain she had a seizure. 2020 sucks 

Ooof, sorry to hear that. Good luck.

35/22 and temp dropping quickly

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Dez Activated. Looking forward to seeing what he can add for the stretch run. Ravens need a physical WR in a BIG way. Every other decent team I can think of has at least one.

Hollywood Brown has been really disappointing this year.  

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

in coming blizzard on 18z gfs for Christmas Night

Suppressed.  Right where we want.

More seriously, I haven't really looked past tomorrow much for 4-5 days, but everything I've seen suggests we're not done with December snow chances.

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Here is LWX's latest thinking on start time...wouldn't be surprised if actual start time is on the earlier end of these. WAA generally come in quicker than forecast.

 

A lot of the most recent guidance has snow past me by 15z tomorrow.  

from @griteater

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That game saved 2020 from being a 100% disaster.

 

Ha, maybe a bit hyperbolic but I get your point.  I am hoping they get the 7 seed so they can play the Steelers.  If the Ravens are healthy, I feel really good about their chances.

No one ever created a thread for tracking seasonal snowfall totals for everyone.  @Midlo Snow Maker?  Someone else?

How about that Ravens win last night, right?  Amirite??

WBAL updated their snow forecast to a fairly reasonable look for anyone who cares.

1 minute ago, high risk said:

             Agreed on all counts.    The GFS typically shows way too small of a small transition zone between rain and snow.      I do think that eastern Howard may get a decent sleet mess out of this.

Here's hoping...

1 minute ago, high risk said:

      It's worth noting that in the CAMs (especially the NAM nest) that turn central and north-central MD over to sleet for a long duration, the warm layer is up around the 750 or 700 mb level.    The GFS is typically very poor at capturing those warm layers if they're well above, say, the 850 level.    PSU made a reference earlier to the March 2017 storm in which the GFS missed forecasting most of the sleet because it kept things much colder aloft.     It isn't the same GFS now, but I would not be surprised if this weakness holds.

Yeah, I said that about the 12z GFS as well.  I don't buy the isothermal skew-t's it's showing.  Think there's a much larger area of sleet between the snow and rain.  And I think we're probably in it.  Hoping we avoid much rain...

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

I mean I’m not kicking Happy Hour GooFuS out of bed...

It is sssuuuuccchhhh a fine line for us.  12z was nearly identical actually.  We're a long hike from heartbreak or happiness in one direction or another.  

@mappy going to like the 18z GFS