WxUSAF

12z HRRR really bullish on snow showers throughout the day tomorrow. Gives many dusting-1”.

3k NAM naso much.

This would be what we’re all looking for on the PAC side

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

@WxUSAF @mappy or other mods... or any posters really lol 

Should we make a new thread for January long range since we are about a week away from going to the new year?

Sure

Unpinning this for now

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Somebody should start a thread for this. Very interesting situation even if not a wintry one.

Do it

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs has a cluster of CAD believers NYE . Sometimes these CAD events get better as we near . 

 Front end thumpin would be real nice 

Speed up that s/w or bring it out in pieces with that cold high up top and we’re in the game.

5 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

18z run must be good if we are comparing field goal kickers and long range tweets

Actually looks closer to a CAD event for NYE. 

17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

That name is never to be mentioned. I had nightmares for a couple days when billy cundiff missed that FG.

I didn’t sleep for like 60 straight hours

Too bad we’re way more Billy Cundiff than Justin Tucker when it comes to hitting on long shot snow chances.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hope something specific comes in range soon. It probably will. 

I wouldn’t give up on the NYE event yet. All 3 globals showed a much better high in advance of it today. Just need a piece of it to break off and come east.

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Some hints of a CAD situation though...  If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip.  

GGEM does the CAD thing too for the New Years storm.  Actually has some ZR verbatim.  

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

NYE/New Years day looks quite similar to Christmas Eve/Day on the 12z GFS.  Huge cutter, driving rainstorm on NYE, front pushes through and gets cold on New Years Day.  

Some hints of a CAD situation though...  If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip.  

1 minute ago, howrdcounty snow said:

how can that happen with the huge block??

Crappy Pac pattern.  

8 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Had been noticing that, wasn’t sure if it was just a mirage or something. Flakes in the air would be awesome, a dusting.-1” on Christmas Day would be something. We’ll see how it plays out.....

Euro has it too actually...

I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday.

its happening.gif

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are definitely 2 camps in the Eps. Cutter and more southern track.  

For the ~31st-1st threat?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cutter 

Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago.  The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there.

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me. 

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I concur.

Seems like the storm around New Years should be a chance for us. GEFS and EPS do not seem enthused though. 

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

wait.  Just so I understand what you are saying clearly.  Are you saying that modeled blocking from a couple days ago might not pan out?  This seems unpossible

It’s there. Just not in the best place for us.

Just now, nj2va said:

GFS with the classic Ontario to well off the Delmarva coast low transfer to recurve inland into Phin’s backyard.  I don’t think Ji will like it...

I’ll give it another couple days but I think the 28th storm is a rain event. NAO block at that time doesn’t look as west-based as it did several days ago, which allows the primary to cut far to our NE before transferring.

I kind of wanted the Steelers to win because I want the ravens to play them on wild card weekend. But it is fun watching them loose!!

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Which direction in relation to the moon do I look in?

Down and to the right. Look low in the southwest sky tomorrow evening around 530-615.

8 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Amazingly we managed to thread the needle IMBY with clouds- got a great view of both planets in the telescope simultaneously. 

Yup, we got a quick view. Enough for everyone to get 1-2 looks before the clouds came back

Is this the HM version of woof?

Bummer. Clouded up quite a bit in the last hour. Was hoping could squeeze in a quick view of the conjunction.