WxUSAF

That looks like rain or maybe rain/snow mix at best for most of MoCo/HoCo and 495 part of VA at 0z Thursday with those 925 and 850 temps.  Hopefully those temps crash back eastward at that point.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It is wet. 2 inches plus for everyone. 

Sleet or rain though for many?

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

18z Euro shifted accumulations about 15 miles nw, fwiw.

 

Edit to add: Better end of storm than 12z just basing off of quick glance snow maps 

 

What does the WAA snow look like and where does the mix line get to?

6 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Sounds about perfectly right. Like. 

 

It seems like the Germantown forecast is :throwshandsup.gif:

I think you'll do alright.  Being farther west helps.  4-8/5-10"?

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm actually going to be in Sykesville so I'm hoping on for some southern Carroll county love

That's one of those places that's a 20-25min drive from me and could easily double my snowfall.  

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

This seems like it is Maryland focused 

0-24" for VA.  I'd narrow that down to 1-15" for Leesburg area.  

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Pretty good forecast @WxUSAF

Can’t think of anything if change. 

Thanks Phin. 

3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I have absolutely 0 idea what to expect in Germantown right now... 

1-15"

Just now, mappy said:

Northern Balt?

I'd lump you in with northwest Harford.  10-18".  

@WVclimo nice pull.  lol that looks very possible. 

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

That’s not actually his forecast. He’s showing some RPM model run, so yeah the headline is misleading.

Which is kind of the point.  They had a forecast.  Why stop using it for that garbage?

P.S.  Go RPM!!

Just now, clskinsfan said:

That is the one crappy thing about all of your family and friends knowing you are a weather geek. Texts all day with "How much for".

I made a long FB post today as I've been getting lots of questions from family and friends.  Here it is for anyone who cares:

I've been telling my kids 1-15".  Feeling good about it.  

WBAL had a pretty good map earlier, at least prior to any 12z/18z changes.  I don't get just ripping the RPM snow map as a forecast. WJZ has this pretty terrible looking maps, but I guess 4-6" around Baltimore is reasonable.

WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI...

Just now, DDweatherman said:

And GFS bias is dry QPF/warm low levels isn’t it? 

Not sure about that. It is progressive, particularly at range. 

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

         Fair enough.     It could be wrong;  I'm just reacting to the folks who said that the NAM showing an inland low track proved that it should be immediately euthanized.

It’s hard to figure out when a model is just playing into its bias and when it’s on to something. NAM bias is over amplified. 

Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. 

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

Since it seems to be the afternoon for apologies on this board, perhaps one needs to be made to the NAM......    

I’ll apologize Wednesday evening as needed and not before

For those who forecast by ensemble snow maps...just saw the 12z Eps probability of 6”+. I think MBY has been in the 50% contour on almost every run, maybe occasionally bumping up or down one contour. And today’s run? In the 60% contour. Biggest difference is the gradient has tightened which is what almost always happens as you get closer to start time. Howard county has just under 50% to over 90% across it.

NWS forecast looks a lot like 12z euro. More N-S gradient in MD due to how much snow falls after the flip back to snow. I like the NWS map although it’s maybe a little bullish on the 12-18” area size.

4 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Some very wet flakes mixing in at 2:00 on east side of Columbia.  37.6°. 

Yup confirmed. 

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Stuck in a meeting, but the big win from the euro run is that the changeover in my neck of the woods is ~3pm and after 0.3”+ of qpf.  

Thanks for that tidbit, that’s excellent news. Solid advisory criteria even before the flip, even for the beltway.

Spoke to @Bob Chill via email. He and his family are healthy and well. He’s been busy with work and it’s covid impacts and changes. He doesn’t expect to post anymore but may in the future. He still lurks a bit. 

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Changed over to almost all snow now. Very lightly coming down. Huge flakes.

Nice! Still rain here. Your new house paying off!

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. 

Ha same thought. 3” of snow, 1” of sleet, and 2-3” of snow on top? All in. 

3 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

Seconded.   If I can end the event without the grass poking through, it's a win.

I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up.

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

A low into the Chesapeak bay isn't going to do any good.  A touch colder to start but cant fight that track off.

Track is west but it’s also colder. If you’re forecasting by 10:1 snow maps you’ll like the euro. 925 stays below freezing west of 95. 850 freezing gets up toward the M-D line so sleet for much of us for a time. I’d take the euro in a hot second.