WxUSAF

Get a grip people.  

Unpinning for now

39/22 with high cirrus

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

when? in a PM?

Email

26 minutes ago, mappy said:

I leave for an hour and the whole thread gets shut down. euro must have been terrible. 

Actually I think you'd take the euro and run.  

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

“Come in hot and heavy” is another thing that often doesn’t work out. That one dude from Blacksburg will have a foot on his patio table before I even have flurries. 

Disagree.  WAA starting earlier and heavier is one of the weenie rules that works out more often than not.  

14 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Your backyard is practically mine. So fingers crossed for our Eastern HoCo crew to score at least a sample of winter.  

Gun to head we get 3" I say.  

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

now we know why he didnt come back

Yeah, he said he was never feeling this one, so kudos to him.  

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Well, the only bright side to this is that the WAA slug has looked better today for a thump for a lot of folks in the sub, and the western crew/northern tier can probably get to warning criteria if it performs well. 

Yeah, that's the takeaway for me today.  ~10am-4 or 5pm hopefully will look and feel like winter IMBY so I'll get a nice @Jebman Jebwalk and with some luck, maybe even exceed last year's total snowfall.  

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

What a shame you shut the old thread so we all couldn't see Phins 9,000th post about Northern NH. 

You can see it, just can't make witty retorts.  

Chips fall time to quote @Bob Chill.  

7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

LOL. Amazing how far this has slowly shifted each run for days now. I would say I'll go outside and look up and watch it go over my head, but at this rate, it will probably be over Hagerstown come tomorrow night.

I'm expecting pretty much nothing now. Really was looking forward to this one, especially since my kids weren't old enough to remember 2016 and haven't seen a big one yet. That said, I feel really awful for anyone pretty far NW when it looked like no matter what, they were safe. Hope they can still manage to turn things around and have it break right for them.

It's disappointing, but no guidance gives you and I nothing.  I'd say you still have a pretty decent chance at WSW verification.  Much less chance for me.  

Yeah, WAA thump looks better for most of us.  A lot like the mesoscale models.  But then rain and not much after it pulls away because it's too far northeast.  

Damn I’m glad my paycheck doesn’t ride on this forecast. 

Gfs is definitely an improvement over 6z with the WAA thump. 0z sounding for MBY is isothermal JUST below freezing from 750-950mb. Then above below that. Verbatim that’s probably wet snow that’s very rate dependent. But got to believe there will be a more noticeable warm layer aloft like the NAM shows. So still thinking quite a bit of sleet. Staying all frozen with that low track would be pretty miraculous. 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

At this point everyone in here would take the RGEM and run. 

I mean, I was thinking a dusting-2” could be a better forecast for MBY potentially. 3K NAM and RGEM keep hope alive that I could exceed last years total snow (3.5”) from this storm. 

RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people.

@high risk yup RE: sleet. 2” of snow, 1” of sleet, then another dusting-1” of snow sounds great at this point. Every weenie for themselves grabbing the gold chandeliers off the titanic. 

3k NAM keeps MBY at or below freezing for the duration. Based on soundings, actually quite a bit of sleet and not as much rain or “freezing rain”. Freezing rain ain’t happening at temps of 30-32. Maybe a little glaze on railings and tree limbs. I get the NAM is pretty disastrous for the N/W crew, but I’m in salvage mode so I’ll take what I can get. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mappy

6z euro was good if you take it in a vacuum but it again nudged everything NW as every run has for 2 days and even up here we are out of any wiggle room. Any further adjustment and we will lose both the WAA front thump but especially any back end as the best forcing for that keeps shifting north. If the trend stops right now we are ok but any continued west shifts of the track today and we are in trouble even up here.  

Haven’t seen 6z euro, but took a quick look at other guidance. For MBY, it looks to all come down to the WAA thump. Thankfully, it looks pretty good on the 0z euro and meso guidance. But after that, it’s a sleet/rain mess and the CCB looks north of me. Maybe a finger of it sweeps through and gives me another dusting-2” tops, but that’s it. Pretty bleak frankly compared to 36hrs ago. If it wasn’t for that  high pressure and confluence, this would be 100% rain for almost everyone with that surface low track. 

Ref show tonight

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm petty sure I'm no longer interested in these long track potential storms. I'm freaking tired and it might not even snow....yeesh.

Yeah, same.  It's fun for the big dogs, but exhausting in the end.

That backside CCB does look nice on the 18z euro.  Hope it happens.  

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

My goal in mby is to hopefully avoid a driving rainstorm after a few hours of snow.  Hopefully during lulls we can hold on to 33-35 and stay “frozen” for most of the storm.  

Yeah, I was thinking sleet, but 18z GFS and Euro seem more like snow vs. rain.  

These are really tiny thermal details.  I'm pretty much just in "chips fall" time.  Seems like we know the basic deal here. 

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

18z still keeps N.Carroll all frozen through the duration.  Deform looks more impressive.  Mixing is a certainty even here but with big qpf ...big totals still possible 

Can you post some 3hrly surface maps with precip?

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Adding the surface which looks above freezing in and around dc for the duration.

 

 

Without seeing a sounding, I can't be sure, but that seems a lot like the 18z GFS for the R/S line area.  Nearly isothermal profile right around freezing from ~850mb to the surface.  Very tiny margin between hours of heavy wet snow and driving rain.