WxUSAF

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that fell apart quick.  Frustrating

1030mb banana high over the top, mega confluence to the northeast, a low that tracks well to our south.  And rain.  Not sure what to say.  

Just now, WxUSAF said:

With snow up to CHO

And then it torches the boundary layer.  

Sigh, I don't know what we have to do to get snow here anymore

1 minute ago, yoda said:

SLP at 144 is on C AL/GA border

With snow up to CHO

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That confluence is a bear tho

Yeah, but also helps keep it cold. 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

you have teasted us twice already today ---into light snow/flurry events. Bring it home man!

Trying my best!

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I am a little worried about the NS wave coming across Canada right on top of it....otherwise its BEAUTIFUL but...we need that flow to our NE to back off a LITTLE and that wave threatens to squash it south...will be close though.  

So many shortwaves...lol.  But damn it's pretty. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

00z had a huge northern piece of h5 energy at 120... comparing to 12z at 108 its not even there lol

Through 114...I'm kind of in love.  Famous last words...

Through 102, euro's 500mb evolution is simpler than 0z.  Somewhat like the GFS so far.  

^I was having the exactly same thought yesterday and couldn't decide if it was my memory or not.  But these 30+ day gaps with barely a flake falling from the sky are brutal.  

Historically this is the moment the euro comes in with "what storm" and there's not even a shortwave.  

Somehow GGEM gets close with a very goofy 500mb evolution.  

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Seems to be washing out the s/w though comparing 120 to 132 at h5 level

Northern stream does kick it away a bit, but it's also weaker than previously shown so it gives the storm some room to amplify and give us a light event. 

All good trends today at 12z so far.  And maybe offers a couple ways to win:

1.  Northern stream phases in

2.  Stronger southern s/w does it all alone as long as northern stream goes away enough

Incoming on the Para also it seems...looks more southern stream driven without a phase, but northern stream is more out of the way

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Much better. It phased but then it left a piece behind which stretched out the trough positively tilted and prevented the system from amplifying. The kicker diving into ND didn’t help either. The pattern has huge upside but all these NS SWs flying around are making it difficult. 

Yeah, this was a cleaner evolution at 500mb.  Less random s/w's to muck things up.  A kicker still there though, yeah.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I laughed..the results literally made me lol'd. We are cursed on the GFS

Yeah, I don't now WTF that hot mess was.  500mb evolution was supportive of a coastal storm.  Can't explain that surface solution.

Yeah, GFS should be pretty good here.  Much cleaner 500mb evolution through ~120hrs.  Precip shield expanding quickly in the SE.  

Clippers, Miller As, Bs, or whatever. I just want it to snow. 

Never got cold. Low of 37

Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's.  If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event.  If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential.  

1 minute ago, Herb@MAWS said:

15-min summer-style shower.

  — except it’s 40 degrees. 

Mini mulch dusting. Would have tacked on a couple tenths if it was colder 

That's a nice signal on the 12z EPS, carrying over from 0z EPS.  

Heavy sleet+graupel shower right now

Only 7 days away.  What could go wrong with this setup?

Just now, yoda said:

@WxUSAF make new thread now?  

sure go for it

@CAPE hates it verbatim, but it's a great run.  No one should whinge about the r/s line at D7.  1'+ for the western DC burbs.  

Just now, psuhoffman said:

There is much less of a suppressive flow in the way of that wave. But it’s also more complicated then the fairly simple bowling bowl system this week. Need multiple parts to phase. If they do it will come north though. It’s always something lol. 

Yeah, it's a phasing situation.  Which opens the door to big dog potential, but it's a complicated pattern with so many shortwaves flying around.  

Oh baby, incoming on the euro