WxUSAF

Very frosty 30F

High pressure on the GFS just keeps getting colder.  I like that.  Can't get the handoff to the coast right yet, but it's not far off.  I'm good with the run overall.  

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The 2m 0c line is up in southern Canada Monday afternoon as precip is nearby on the 00z GFS.  

Here's the sounding as the precipitation is just brushing DC.  Wet-bulb 0C altitude is around 950mb.  IF you had some heavy precipitation and could wet bulb down, that's  probably some slush bombs, etc.  Airmass is pretty crappy, but the thread-the-needle possibility is there, particularly for the northern burbs.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2020121100&fh=90&lat=38.94&lon=-77.04&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Howard county lollie bullseye 

Yes, talk dirty to me

1 minute ago, mappy said:

why are we yelling

Snow is srs bizness 

Hi, you must be new here. Welcome to the mid Atlantic!

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I’d say these are good locations per the 18z EPS for Wed/Thursday

Meh. Looks worse than 12z as far as scatter, low track, and OH valley primary. Not bad, but 12z was gorgeous.

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For me, I see very little chance that a low near Atlanta can somehow slide straight out to sea. At least I think we’d get precip with that.

Tend to agree. Probably a glancing blow but something. That precip map shows you need heavier precip and dynamical cooling to get some snow. Timing of the shortwave relative to the cold air is also key. Want things a little slower. Seems HH euro did that.

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

45 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Less consolidation...Late bloomer

My biggest fear is that this becomes a Pa north storm cause low cant get organized in time

I mean, it’s a much higher chance of being a PA north storm. But could also hit us at the same time.

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

About 6 hits on the members.  We will have to see if it is a blip or a trend.  18z WB GEFS Early week storm.

Jeez, talk about boom or bust. What is producing those big snow events? 

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS.  Monday stronger, colder than at 12Z.

lol I thought that was Wednesday. That looks nice. 

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The few Eps members that gave areas snow had a similar track and actually a bit stronger slp. Fwiw

That makes sense. Were they also a little slower?

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes . Definitely thread the needle.  We can do 34-36 with mod rates . 

Euro and icon were similar at 12z. Will be interesting to see how 18z follows.

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep... to me it looks like some possible snow n+w verbatim especially with that track  .  Its close and icon thermals don't seem to be the best normally. 

Gfs and euro both have 850 cold enough but below that is pretty torched. 

WPC hazard plot highlights the area for “Heavy Precipitation” on the 16/17th. Heavy rain southeast of DC/Baltimore, heavy snow for PA mountains up into western and northern New England. 

Just now, jaydreb said:

Yeah, when the Euro, GFS and ensembles all agree on something at range, plus it fits the overall pattern, that is a pretty typical signal for our bigger storms.  

Yup. Just remember the calendar and adjust accordingly. But a really nice 12z suite. 6 days to go. 

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Clustering 

 

Beautiful!! Only one left in Ohio. Strong storms off hatteras. Giggity giggity.

^keanuwhoa.gif

Based on the maps I’ve seen, Eps looks really really nice. Cold and with a more southern transfer to the coast than the Op. Getting tingly. 

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol good point. i dont often complain, anything other than rain is fine, but i just hate when its not a nice storm for all. 

Get that handover down by Norfolk or farther south and then we all cash in. 

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

arg, i hate the event as shown for next week. i always sit right at the edge of snow/rain and it sleets for hours instead. 

Hi you must be new here. Welcome to the mid-Atlantic. 

SLP and 850mb storm track is actually a little better on the 0z euro vs this run. OH valley low hangs on a little longer with a slightly farther north handover and inland track at 12z. Just that high is more potent and we have a much colder airmass to start. Both are very small details at D5-7. 
 

Take the 12z high pressure and the 0z low pressure and that’s probably ideal for the metro corridor.

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s easy to get caught up in the verbatim but you look at the players on the field and there’s no way I’d want a scraper look 6 days out with that blocking in place.

Give me wiggle room if that high is analyzed stronger closer to game time. 

Let’s just keep this looking like this for another 60-72 hrs and then hope we get our usual CAD pregame help. 

1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

I dont know much about nothing.. but something tells me temps will not be a huge issue with the placement of the high and the blocking pattern that is setting up.  It seems like temps come colder when we get a block... Dec 2009 was a great example of that..

That cold high is why it’s as much frozen as it is. Still too much OH valley low and the 850 low tracks over us or even a bit north of us. That’s not a recipe for 100% snow. Need to kill that thing sooner. But that’s the trend today so far for the gfs and GEFS at least. Hope Eps follows.

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

It’s only a hit depending on where you are.   

Yeah as always. I know I’m not going to lay money on the cities and close in burbs being all snow for this event, if it happens. But a lot of things to like for some snow for many of us. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right near where we’d want to be at this range. Nice event.

I’ll take it. Low actually tracks a bit inland but that cold high keeps areas N/W of 95 frozen. Plus the model trend is faster handoff to the coastal. 

1 minute ago, Amped said:

I 81 gets rocked

Crushed 

Euros a hit. Similar to 0z but a bit colder. @psuhoffman not fringed