WxUSAF

Ah, the first moderation philosophy complaining. Definitely winter now.

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Mid December signal still there on 0Z GEFS, EPS, and GEPS.  I will be disappointed if DMV sees no snow by the 20th, but I have been disappointed before...

2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

The OP 00z euro had a decent look day 10. Moderate HP wedged in could be a setup for a snow thump to rain type event. Obviously going to change though 

There’s a lot to like on the D10 EPS. 50/50, -east NAO, weak +PNA, and cold air. That period next week is definitely one to watch. 

Just now, CAPE said:

Maybe he can expand on this here, or in the winter discussion thread. Some of his general ideas were presented in that CWG article. I am wondering if the back half of winter might be more favorable in the WPO/EPO domains.

And there are model hints that we have a weak strat PV going into January and SSW chances. 

Euro euro euro!!!

If you want a political conversation please take it elsewhere instead of this annoying cryptic hinting and beating around the bush.

It’s the end of an op run, but the 12z gfs shows the sort of evolution we want to see. Cutter brings down an arctic airmass behind it and an active pattern provides a series of strong short waves moving into that cold air. That cutter also acts as a 50/50 low to reinforce the cold. Then hopefully we get a nice snow event before our annual 70F Christmas Eve when the pac puke arrives with Santa. 

20 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Welp, back here for another winter of tracking.  I believe this is my 14th winter tracking storms on the internet.  This year I'll need more distraction than usual because my wife died back in August and now I'm a single parent of two small kids (2 and 4) .  Hopefully mother nature can throw me a bone.  

Ouch. Sorry dude. Can’t imagine going through that. Best wishes.

I guess we’re using DTs thread for Monday, so we can keep this for anything past that.

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Nothing better than waking up and seeing pages of posts for a possible snow event. It’s def winter season

And posts that aren’t about how it’s all falling apart!

^important differences between those HH euro and GFS runs. Euro slower with the shortwave and more separation between it and the weaker kicker in central Canada. Get tomorrow’s storm near where the gfs has it and game on...

Faster motion for this perfect track rainstorm gets it out of the way a bit and allows this Monday possibility room to amplify and maybe turn the corner a bit. 
 

2013-14 storms show up under D5 rule in effect?

Does it go past 90hrs? That looks pretty damn nice for a small-moderate event. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO 

Don’t tease!

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Early next week is a little more separation from being something. 

Yeah it’s close. Signs were there for a possibility and today’s runs moved in the right direction. Fingers crossed it keeps going that way. 

42 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Check out hr. 105 on the Euro! Light snow!

41 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Euro gets some light snow/flurries into the area Monday.

37 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s a data point.  We will watch it and remain calm.  My meds have kicked in

F that noise.

ALL IN

29

Cleveland for the win?

Note...this isn’t a thing

Ravens going to lose, but that pick 6 or Luke Wilson catching the TD at halftime and it’s quite possibly a win. 
 

Steelers 11-0, but really are not that impressive. 

lol 4 total turnovers 10mins into the game

I have to admit, I’ve never seen such high quality football played on a Wednesday 

My IAD and DCA values are switched

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s a beautiful progression. Normally I’d say we’re playing with house money so early but this season it’s imperative we produce in that. Like it or not, the niña is still lurking..

Yeah, would be nice to get on the board in a clear way with that sort of look. Plenty of cold air around on those EPS charts so less/none of the issues with this weekends storm. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

As long as you mean Ant and not the accuweather HM 

Yup. @ORH_wxman says it looks good as well in the NE sub forum. 
 

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hard not to like the recent runs of the Eps moving into mid December . Today's run keeps a nice 50/50 through day 12 . An all around good look .

Haven’t seen it yet, but HM is happy about it on Twitter so I’ll take that. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is already better than last year when seemingly nothing ever showed on models.

We’ve had three late November’s in a row where models looked good for early December. 2018 produced the huge SE storm that hit the wall at EZF. 2019 the rug got pulled out and it went to crap. We’ll see what happens this year. Like I said yesterday, I think we’ll have chances through mid December at least.