WxUSAF

Just now, CAPE said:

Where are all the snow map posters?

I only have access via the freebie sites and I didn't bother looking lol.

I looked through the 3 globals on TT and saw the gfs was really close (just seems to have a warm boundary layer verbatim but 850s below freezing), ggem was wound up and west, and then saw the euro  had a good track and looked cold at 850 also. So switched to pivotal and saw the precip. It’s not a huge storm but would be a nice start to winter. 
 

For a more bird-in-hand scenario, probably worth keeping an eye on flurries or snow showers behind the big low next Tuesday or Wednesday. If a piece of energy can rotate around, maybe we could get on the board...

1-3” on the euro for Dec 5 and nobody reports it??

Ravens covid situation is a mess. They’ve disciplined an unnamed staff member who sounds like the Typhoid Mary of the group. Per Twitter, he did not report symptoms and didn’t wear a mask at the facility.
 

Game moved to Sunday, but a bunch of key players won’t be playing because of this. Many more cases in the coaching and support staff. 

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

maybe first flakes?  that would be a huge win for my crap location.  RA/SN mix even

Verbatim probably not outside the highlands. But just like a 12-24 hr delay probably is cash money for I-95.

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Overnight euro and new parallel gfs were pretty similar. Paste bomb for mountains and far western burbs. 
 

So far I don’t like the 12z gfs at all. Although that 500mb low pass for the Dec 1 storm looks fairly amazing in isolation. 

Ooohh...12z ggem is so close to the perfect scenario. Just brings the second storm a bit too soon so it’s a cold rain, but the track is near perfect. 

Overnight euro and new parallel gfs were pretty similar. Paste bomb for mountains and far western burbs. 
 

So far I don’t like the 12z gfs at all. Although that 500mb low pass for the Dec 1 storm looks fairly amazing in isolation. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How long until the rug pull?

Nov 30 storm cuts west, Dec 4-5 storm is slow enough that it cuts too. Crap airmass after for a few days then we place all the hopes on threading the needle for one more storm before the PAC jet returns on Dec 10. 

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So my question is...what do things have to look like to not make the snow miss? Lol Sounds like a dumb question, but what I'm saying is...is there anyway to tell in the LR if things look good enough that storms won't miss just northeast of here ala the bomb cyclone or boxing day 2010. When I think of ninas, I assume north or late developing is always an additional battle to fight...To prevent such, do we need even more blocking up top than we would during neutral/nino?

The advertised pattern clearly supports coastal storms or storms passing south of us in general. Doesn’t mean every storm will do that, but pattern is supportive of that. Question is going to be whether the air mass ahead of any individual storm is conducive to snow. You can see this with the Dec 4-5 window. We need the Nov 30/Dec 1 storm to give us a fresh cold air mass and then have the next storm move into it at the right time before it rots. We don’t need a *ton* of help for a suitable airmass in early December, but we need some. A climo air mass doesn’t cut it usually. 

^thanks @frd. Maybe that’s the sort of linkage that could keep us chilly if the MJO gets to phase 6 in ~15 days. 

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The proverbial turd in the punchbowl post lol

Ha. 
 

We’ve got a nice pattern the first 10-14 days of December and already have a window or two picked out. That’s really good for December! Especially in a mod/strong Nina! 

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the  EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

 

Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent.  I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly?  
 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Monday night, and mentions flash freeze potential in their discussion. 

lol, I’ve experienced more HECSs in my life than flash freezes. 

Don’t know about storm chances or details, but EPS pattern even better than GEFS the second week of December. Big poleward PNA up into AK and the Yukon. 
 

And that configuration starts to bang on the SPV some

Dec 4-5 is the first period to keep an eye on. GFS and GGEM are weak and sheared today while euro is wrapped up inland. Need the Nov 30/Dec 1 storm to give us a good air mass. 

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder what the resulting winters were in DCA/BWI/PHL when there was measurable snow in the first 10 calendar days of December.

2002-03 worked out well

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks good at the end of the GEFS run today. Nice amplitude too- poking up over AK.

It does. GEFS seems to be can-kicking on that orientation a bit, but also making the situation before that less hostile overall. I’d eagerly sign up to take my chances with that pattern anytime DJF. 

Stealing something from phillywx...

Since 2000 there have been 13 measurable snow events in the first 10 days of December at PHL. Let’s assume that’s about the same for us. So you’re looking at a 6.5% chance on any given day. But roughly even money or a bit better on measurable at in the first 10 days when adding that up. 
 

Given the advertised pattern, it’s hard for me to see that we’re in a worse than climo position. Hopefully that holds through the next 2 weeks.

Mods clogging up the LR thread with banter

smdh

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I doubt we score next week.  When we starting needing A+B and then C, we're already out.    But it's interesting nonetheless.   

Fun active pattern for sure. 

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GEFS has it further east. Marginal airmass outside of elevated areas though. Probably not likely next week will produce for the majority of the MA. Its going to take some time, assuming the AK trough does weaken/retro, to get some legit cold air on our doorstep.

The precise axis of the PNA ridge is key and its a very subtle feature as you can see if you toggle back through the last 3-5 days of GEFS runs. We want as much N-S orientation as possible. Either way today’s GEFS has us BN for the first 7-10 days of December. Hopefully it’s not a dry cold.
 

Regarding the AK trough, interestingly the extended GEFS has it west of AK near Kamchatka or NE Siberia all of December. That’s a pretty good location for us as it should encourage ridging over western Canada. Doubly so if a piece of the TPV breaks off and heads for eastern Canada as it shows right at the end around Xmas. 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that's a hell of a storm on both models.  Problem is, we're on the wrong side.   Plenty of time left...and...150 hours

Airmass ahead of that storm is garbage. For there to be any chance, we need that northern stream low to bring it in ahead of time. I’m skeptical. Hope for wraparound snow showers. 
 

Chances go up the farther we get into December. 

34 here

Agree with all that’s been said by @tombo82685 and others. The advertised pattern would more likely offer snow chances around Dec 5-10 then before. The Dec 3 period maybe has a snowballs chance if the needle is threaded somewhat like yesterday’s euro. End of the 6z gefs shows eastern Canada cooling down as the poleward PNA finally starts cutting off the Pac and dragging arctic air southward. 
 

Either way can’t be too upset about a very Nino-ish pattern going into December that should offer a few chances at least. Let’s keep that look through the next week and then we can get busy. 

2017 is the last December where it actually snowed here 

I appreciate this has been a polite discussion so far, but let’s end it now because I don’t think anyone’s mind is changing.