WxUSAF

Put the snowboard out to will this thing north 

Now would be a good time for that north trend please 

48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, have to see what ensembles say. We don’t want to see that. 

Eh, doesn’t dump the TPV in AK, but has it consolidated north of the Yukon with a trough in AK and -PNA. Either way, another Xmas torch.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS dumps all the energy into it at the end of the 12z run.

Yup, have to see what ensembles say. We don’t want to see that. 

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

There is definitely a window between say the 13-18 of a pretty decent pattern available.  After the cutter next week, there will be some fresh cold air to tap.  

12z GEFS looks a lot like this at this time. 

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. Fwiw I’ve noticed the gefs seems improved so far this cold season. It’s won its fair share of battles with the EPS so far. That’s not really what we want right now though. Lol 

Yeah, it’s done respectably well. Seems to have lost the major cold bias as well. And more reasonably dispersive.

25 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty good look with the 50/50 low and a -NAO.  I don’t think we like the low heights over Alaska though, right?  We need those low heights further west to extend the PNA ridge up into Canada.  I could be wrong though.  

Low heights in AK are never ideal, but the ridging on the west coast combined with a pretty good Atlantic side make that a nice look. There’s also a bigger piece of the TPV farther east. If that TPV was over AK...it would be suboptimal.

Yes, GEFS uses the FV3 dynamical core now. 

Ah, the first moderation philosophy complaining. Definitely winter now.

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Mid December signal still there on 0Z GEFS, EPS, and GEPS.  I will be disappointed if DMV sees no snow by the 20th, but I have been disappointed before...

2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

The OP 00z euro had a decent look day 10. Moderate HP wedged in could be a setup for a snow thump to rain type event. Obviously going to change though 

There’s a lot to like on the D10 EPS. 50/50, -east NAO, weak +PNA, and cold air. That period next week is definitely one to watch. 

Just now, CAPE said:

Maybe he can expand on this here, or in the winter discussion thread. Some of his general ideas were presented in that CWG article. I am wondering if the back half of winter might be more favorable in the WPO/EPO domains.

And there are model hints that we have a weak strat PV going into January and SSW chances. 

Euro euro euro!!!

If you want a political conversation please take it elsewhere instead of this annoying cryptic hinting and beating around the bush.

It’s the end of an op run, but the 12z gfs shows the sort of evolution we want to see. Cutter brings down an arctic airmass behind it and an active pattern provides a series of strong short waves moving into that cold air. That cutter also acts as a 50/50 low to reinforce the cold. Then hopefully we get a nice snow event before our annual 70F Christmas Eve when the pac puke arrives with Santa. 

20 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Welp, back here for another winter of tracking.  I believe this is my 14th winter tracking storms on the internet.  This year I'll need more distraction than usual because my wife died back in August and now I'm a single parent of two small kids (2 and 4) .  Hopefully mother nature can throw me a bone.  

Ouch. Sorry dude. Can’t imagine going through that. Best wishes.

I guess we’re using DTs thread for Monday, so we can keep this for anything past that.

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Nothing better than waking up and seeing pages of posts for a possible snow event. It’s def winter season

And posts that aren’t about how it’s all falling apart!

^important differences between those HH euro and GFS runs. Euro slower with the shortwave and more separation between it and the weaker kicker in central Canada. Get tomorrow’s storm near where the gfs has it and game on...

Faster motion for this perfect track rainstorm gets it out of the way a bit and allows this Monday possibility room to amplify and maybe turn the corner a bit. 
 

2013-14 storms show up under D5 rule in effect?

Does it go past 90hrs? That looks pretty damn nice for a small-moderate event. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO 

Don’t tease!

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Early next week is a little more separation from being something. 

Yeah it’s close. Signs were there for a possibility and today’s runs moved in the right direction. Fingers crossed it keeps going that way. 

42 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Check out hr. 105 on the Euro! Light snow!

41 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Euro gets some light snow/flurries into the area Monday.

37 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s a data point.  We will watch it and remain calm.  My meds have kicked in

F that noise.

ALL IN

29

Cleveland for the win?

Note...this isn’t a thing