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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Literal factor of 10 difference in precip total between the 12k and 3k NAM for MBY
  2. WxUSAF
    Trough sharpened on the Ukie vs 0z even though the precip was still paltry. Did euro do the same?
  3. WxUSAF
    Probably reasonable. Surface temps will be important though (when are they not??), so it probably a T at DCA and 1” for the Parrs Ridge crowd which stay at 30-32F for the duration.
  4. WxUSAF
    Ground is the proper way. Elevated and liquid nitrogen cooled is the weenie way .
  5. WxUSAF
    More signs that the torch shouldn’t last forever. Last nights ensemble means finally showed some changes in the long range with a -EPO and AO going more neutral on GEFS and EPS. Still rough over us though because of a -PNA.
  6. WxUSAF
    Just a 2’x2’ piece of plywood and paint it white. Try to place it in the open away from obstructions and places that would drift. Measure up the hourly and wipe the board every 6 hours.
  7. WxUSAF
    NAM and GFS soundings are respectable for Wednesday morning in terms of temperatures and dendritic growth zone. Column is well below freezing except for right at the surface potentially.
  8. WxUSAF
    Maybe things are meeting somewhat in the middle?
  9. WxUSAF
    FV3 is the GFS dynamical core run at mesoscale resolution. I think it may be taking over for the NAM, but @high risk or @dtk can confirm.
  10. WxUSAF
    @SnowenOutThere start a thread and we can put 12z output in there for wednesdays major snowfall
  11. WxUSAF
    Apparently part of the decision was that Marlon Humphrey has a serious injury and they were basically out of corners
  12. WxUSAF
    Defense has been pretty good lately, but they can’t get to the QB and they don’t get turnovers. So pretty amazing they’ve had any success. Of course they’ve gone against some mediocre at best offenses.
  13. WxUSAF
    Not sure I agree with the call but it was there and Lamar made yet another bad pass. He made a bunch of those today.
  14. WxUSAF
    Ravens offense needs a come to Jesus moment. They’re just ridiculously out of sorts and if they were half of what they were earlier this year, they win today going away
  15. WxUSAF
    This is exactly what the ravens have done the last 4-6 weeks. Defense been good, but gives up big plays. Offense has been generally shitty.
  16. WxUSAF
    What a terrible decision after a great drive
  17. WxUSAF
    A bit juicier than 0z
  18. WxUSAF
    With this increasingly coherent MJO passage past the dateline, we should start to see some response in the ensemble mean 500mb anomalies. But yikes, they haven’t yet.
  19. WxUSAF
    I mean, sure, it can happen. But I’ll believe it when I’m shoveling.
  20. WxUSAF
    Lol 6z GFS for next Sunday. Anafrontal events with dynamic cooling needed to get snow. We excel at those!!
  21. WxUSAF
    WINTER WILL BE OVER IF WE FAIL
  22. WxUSAF
    18z icon is nice
  23. WxUSAF
    Solid step toward the other guidance but no way is it time to start a thread. Maybe happy hour Tuesday??
  24. WxUSAF
    I hope so. Would like to start seeing some improvement on D15 ensemble means but they still look like a dumpster fire right now. But yes, I’d also prefer to have our best chance in late December to February if we can get it.
  25. WxUSAF
    Stolen from elsewhere… This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month.
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