WxUSAF
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Euro also has a sharper shortwave than 0z, but much too far south.
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That could be one of those rare setups that actually has a north trend at the end for us Possible. A stronger shortwave will increase ridging ahead and tend to move it north. GGEM wants nothing to do with it.
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12z has a better shortwave presentation than 6z, but it’s farther south. Move it north a bit and the result is more like the 0z storm.
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Nothing. Was a solid dusting in NE MD and right across the M/D line.
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In Bel Air visiting family and there’s a dusting here. Probably 0.2-0.3” after accounting for some melting.
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Heading to longwood gardens this afternoon. Hoping for some accumulation!
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Changing back and forth between sleet and rain now
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Getting a shower of the most heavily rimed snowflakes I think I’ve ever seen
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Basically all the meso models (notably except the NAMs) have a period of snow (as determined by model p-type) mid-late morning tomorrow for northern or central or northeast MD. Surface temps are mid-30s at best though, so any accumulation would be on grass and rate dependant. eta…12z GFS as well.
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The models know about the M/D line
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High of 66, low of 42, and 0.15” of rain. Merry Christmas!
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Go JWST!!!
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Warm/dry, cool/wet, cold/dry
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^thats the look that we were first teased with for next week. Hopefully we get it to actually happen. Euro with a nice setup and a RIC hit verbatim on Jan 3. That’s definitely a window of interest for now.
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One positive over the last 24hrs for the GEFS and GEPS, at least , is that they have been restrengthening the -AO and -NAO at the end of the runs. Previously that was starting to break down (although always hard to tell how much is just reflective of ensemble spread).
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I’m going Monday! Glad you’re on the mend!
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Second. High of 39F again.
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I think late last January through much of February was solid winter for us. Insane gradient obviously in snow outcome, but it was a hair breadth (or about 3-5F) away from being a very memorable stretch.
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Troegs Troegenator for me tonight
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All3 major globals are roughly similar in the D10 time period (basically Jan 1) in suggesting a cutter/lakes storm finally pushes or starts to push the SE ridge down and usher in a cold airmass to at least the center of the country. GFS is most aggressive and fastest. GGEM and Euro are pretty similar and would suggest like Jan 3 or so when we get a good cold push.
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By recent standards, quite encouraging 12z Op runs so far with at least possibilities starting after New Years.
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Car was all iced up this morning. Temp just below freezing. Might count this as freezing rain if this ends up being the only winter precipitation we get this year…
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36F and light rain. Living my best winter life.
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2 is pretty good usually. 3 is good for us in March.
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Between now and 2022, any frozen precipitation will be front end stuff ahead of a warm front. The models have shown this as a possibility. What we’d hope for in January are overrunning events along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south. Look at the very end of todays 18z GFS and you can sort of see how this works. SE ridge gets suppressed, mean boundary is to our south, and waves run along it with us on the cold side. That can be pretty lucrative.
