WxUSAF

RGEM in camp 2

Some/many/most of us have realized that there’s going to be a middle finger screw zone somewhere with this storm as the energy transfers to the coast and the precip to the west weakens before the coastal enhancement sets up. And we’ve been saying it could be through our region. Seems like there are two places the models are placing it so far this morning: 1. DC northeastward towards Lancaster Co PA. 2. Philly northeastward through the NYC area. Hrrr and Euro are in camp 1. 3k NAM and FV3 are in camp 2. Haven’t looked close enough to try and tease out what the precise differences are driving that.

It’s “related” to the GFS so not surprising

Ticked west for all the main features, but unfortunately that places the middle finger from DC up to me through central Baltimore and Harford counties.

I wouldn’t take the Hrrr banding locations overly seriously. 3k NAM and Euro had heavier precip in the location the Hrrr has the screw zone. It’s clear that the eastern shore and the far west crew will do best generally. Between NoVA, DC, and central MD there are going to be relative winners and losers.

If this little anafrontal deal the GFS is showing for Sunday/Monday turns into a thing, then we really know the horseshoe is firmly inserted into our asses.

As an Orioles fan, I always keep a close eye on the waiver wire and the Rule 5 draft.

Dirty talk

BWI climo report only showing 6”. What happened?

That’s after Snomicron. Snomega?

Actually…peep 240 from the 12z…

I’m mostly just riffing. Just surprising how much crap is getting thrown around in here. There are more than a few winters when we’d all kill for 1-4” of powder with no mixing issues.

I’m patenting it Snomicron already CWG, so you have to credit me when you steal that

Nah…Yeoman would be proud of how well I’m using his tax dollars today! Busy!

Amazing how fast the previously snow starved southern crew becomes hoity toity and poopoo’s the 1-4” of cold powder coming tomorrow night.

Dang…I called 1-4”.

GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip.

Think it has to be a combo of relatively calm winds and the bottom slush layer freezing into the trees and serving as an anchor for the snow on top?

Perhaps the easiest storm to forecast in CWG’s history. Whole region gets a 1-4” swipe and call it a day.

3k jackpots HoCo. I’m huggin’ A bit more seriously, it’s soundings look very nice for a quick powder bomb. SLRs should be a bit better than 10:1.

Low of 21 near midnight but up to 28 now

GGEM actually runs at 18z also and was quite acceptable per @mitchnick

From what I saw, continuing as WFT is an option.

As someone who isn’t a fan, Red Wolves was IMO by FAR the best option for WFT. Too bad it’s not happening.

Agreed. Up to this morning, I figured this was likely a 2-4” event. Maybe a narrow stripe would get a bit more. Today looks more like 1-3”. So be it. Hopefully we don’t get too much more suppression by the northern stream.