WxUSAF

Yikes, kiss of death

Agree with everyone else. Tons of very cold air in Canada. Not like last year at all where the blocking was just blocking in modified Pacific air masses. That’s legit arctic air in Canada. We just need a small slice.

LOT to like on that GEFS run. -AO and -NAO builds from east-based to west-based by post-Xmas. And the -EPO keeps nudging eastward in time pushing the western trough more into the Rockies and high plains. And GEFS has actually been accelerating the changes rather than can-kicking. We were wondering about that given that the MJO phases forecast was not jiving with the H5 look.

12z gfs and GGEM both are close with this idea

Reach out to @dendriteand he can change it

As a longwave pattern no, but with the right shortwave timing and the blocking over the pole, it’s possible.

GEFS and EPS both have several nice features by Xmas week: -EPO, ridge bridge across the pole with -AO, -east NAO. But both have a pig of a -PNA also. We need that EPO ridge to move east a bit to kick that trough at least out into the Plains.

Since there’s nothing happening for at least a week… If you squint, you can maybe envision an overrunning/southwest flow event around D8-12 (next weekend). TPV rotates down through central and eastern Canada perhaps while pieces of that Baja Low may eject out into the southern Plains. What we need is for the TPV to provide just enough cold air and suppression and for only a modest piece of the Baja low to eject so it’s not too strong and pumps the SE ridge again. It’s a long shot…we don’t usually score at the start of a pattern transition, but it’s the only thing I see in the next 15 days.

Coldest this season here as well, but still only 25F.

DCA hasn’t been below 22F in like 3 years? So yeah, give me the vodka cold so it can sneak down to 21F in an intrahour!

Four T’s so far: 11/27, 11/29, 11/30, 12/8

Saw a tweet earlier this week. Every major station east of the MS river (and probably most west of it too) is BN on snowfall. Lake effect zones aren’t too far behind yet I think. I believe Buffalo and Syracuse were like 5-6” behind. Erie was 10” or so.

Micro-pixie dust in Columbia. Biggest December snow of the 2021-2022 season!

Damn, who could have predicted an I-95 snow hole and the NW crew to cash in big time??!! I’ll have to remember that for next time!

Same. Can’t squint a flake

Something weird on radar just west of IAD

Put the snowboard in the yard, so it’s my fault when it rains.

#NeverApologize More seriously, you’re all good. There’s lots of crotchety people here and you’ll learn how to ignore if you want. I think it’s great you’re here and don’t let our first snow fail of the season change your posting!

72 hours is typical for smaller events I’d say. We’ve done longer for big dogs that have some level of consensus already.

#blessed

Go sit in the corner until January

Stoked for all the neighborhood's leaves to be in my front yard tomorrow morning

Nice to see the Euro get in on the "more than flurries/sprinkles" game.

Hearing 18z euro may be better??

This dovetails nicely with that tweet by Eric Webb that @frd posted. A strong Scandi ridge is a typical precursor for -NAO events as the Rossby wave propagates and the ridge moves westward into the NAO domain with time. I doubt we're in a cold/snowy pattern by Xmas, but I expect things will be moving in a positive way by the beginning of that week around the 20th.