WxUSAF

Woo! First sub 40F day. High of 39F.

23 so far. Coldest this season.

Huntley has looked very impressive in his playing opportunities. Wouldn’t be shocked if he gets some interest in the off-season.

I think Brown was wide open

Lol Jan 1994 analog

You’d assume the D3 forecast will be pretty close to reality. A D10 ensemble forecast shouldn’t really be used for sensible weather at a single point. It’s showing the longwave setup, which will give you a general idea on temp perturbation from normal and storminess. It’s showing that the eastern CONUS is probably warm while the west is cool/stormy. And that will probably be a decent look from D10.

For demonstration purposes, todays 12z GFS has this two wave scenario from hour 324-360. Some front end stuff is also on the table and GFS shows that type of scenario as well after Xmas.

^you’re mixing longwave and shortwave comparisons there. At D10, shortwave positions all get averaged together and washed out. But at D3, they’re well forecast. That’s a pretty good D10 longwave forecast: most of the eastern CONUS is ridging.

Ensembles appear reasonably confident that the Xmas-New Years week will be BN in temps. Not dramatically so, but a few degrees F perhaps. Probably works out to low 40s for highs and upper 20s for lows in aggregate. But the dry trend remains with maybe a little more action right around New Years. Definitely not a big snow pattern, but one that could produce frozen with proper wave timing. That’s sort of been the crux…we want one wave to go through and supply sufficient cold air and then a close trailing wave with some moisture. Both have been hard to come by and the southern plains ridging cuts off Gulf moisture to a large degree.

This is basically's JB twitter feed now trying to respond to the new normal: While also telling people to buy his book

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Congrats @WxWatcher007 and get well soon to your dad and you @psuhoffman. Hopefully mild symptoms given three shots!

Another great thread from @griteater upshot:

Feb 1986 was pretty good. 13” at BWI

Wow good thing I was only 4 and there was no internet or I would have been cliff jumping in 85-86.

@North Balti Zen and @dailylurker all like

whoa baby...they're a double bunner.

Weeklies apparently might put your weenie back in the bun and EPS signal for 20-21st isn’t terrible…

GLL needs to GTFO

Agree. I think they’re done pretty much regardless. Even if they fall into a WC spot, they’re getting bounced in the first round.

Jesus Ravens. Even a seemingly disastrous game turns into a heart attack.

I remember how that pattern developed in 17-18. Looked like an amazing overrunning pattern at range and the models were keying in on a storm from D8-10, but then the cold push overwhelmed it and it was suppressed to hell and gone. We got a couple minor events in a cold and dry period.

Great thread this morning from @griteater. His best analogs for this MJO progression at this time of year in a Niña are 95-96, 01-02, and 17-18. Three wide ranging outcomes there showing @psuhoffmans reminder that luck always has a big role to play.

Seeing videos and images out of Mayfield, Ky. Staggering devastation. Got to be some EF4 level damage.