WxUSAF

Do it

I would vote for a new December thread.

I haven’t seen the EPS that far out in awhile but GEPS and GEFS do look worlds apart in the PAC after D7 or so. Things have been pretty transient across the CONUS with the -NAO and the -WPO seemingly the most persistent long wave patterns impacting us of late. Both have some Nina/QBO/PDO support for being persistent this winter. I hope that trough doesn’t crash into the west coast too much. I don’t mind having a meh snow pattern in early December…we don’t get much snow then anyway. But I definitely don’t want to flush Canada of cold air. That takes 2-3 weeks to recover. Need to have cold air available to tap when we get a chance.

He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air.

Pretty sure I remember that I left work early that day before it snowed to avoid the mess. My son had basketball practice that evening and I recall seeing the google traffic map disaster. Think that was the day that a lot of NWS warnings were hoisted so nobody was looking at the light event that night when the HECS was around the corner.

Right before the blizzard was one of those commuteagedon events right? We got like 1” right at rush hour with cold road temps?

I haven’t seen the ensemble members, but I’m guessing some sort of trailing waves along the front? Still think flurries next Tuesday are quite possible, at least for the N/W crew with that lake enhanced cold air.

Not sure how the ravens can replace his 0.4 yards per carry…

5 HECS (>15”) in 7 winters 09-10 through 15-16. Pretty amazing run.

I’m not saying I just skimmed through like 200 pages of obs and disco from that storm but I’m not NOT saying it either.

Maybe in mid January peak climo you could say that, but Nov 25-28? Nah .

Setup for post-Thanksgiving definitely is nice in broad terms with wavebreaking driving the big -NAO and a quasi 50-50 low. Then a strong southern stream s/w. But it’s November…and because of that, we might have a better chance of flakes next Tuesday/Wednesday with cold NW flow.

Maybe. Probably. But they’ve been more common this century by far than in the last 20 years of the 20th century. And could have a Nino in 22-23…

Lots of feels reading that thread…

Doug Kammerer winter forecast: https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/how-much-snow-to-expect-dougs-2021-22-winter-forecast/2883423/ In total it’s pretty in line with most other winter outlooks with AN temps and BN snow. But details are quite different. He’s going for a very warm snowless December and a colder snowier Jan and Feb.

Low of 31 with frost

Just lately?

Lol DCA

An interesting end to the contest awaits. If DCA gets to freezing tomorrow morning, @RIC Airport will win. @yoda will win if DCA waits to Saturday, while @mappy will win if it's next Wednesday. I tested those dates based on today's 12z GFS, but a lot of variance here with a big swing in results. Actually, our group MEAN forecast will actually win for the later 2 dates (Saturday and next Wednesday and probably most dates in between).

Hot damn. Flipped the EPO from the last one I saw. I’d still not mind if that look is can-kicked for a week or so 10 days. Later in December for that type of look never would hurt.

You thinking blizzard warnings might be needed??

In November! There’s a signal for a strong Miller B possibility next week. Euro phases things way far south so we get snow while GFS does it near our latitude and so we get rain and then cold wind. Climo, November, and La Niña all argue hard for a GFS type solution. Going to be cold though.

Think maybe @MN Transplant?

Just under 30F at home. 74F here in Key West.

Nice post which again highlights how we need a NAO ridge to couple with the ENSO favored -WPO for us to have a chance this winter. But if we can get that, we should have some chances for cold and snow. Without it, SE ridge goes on roids.