WxUSAF

Ravens have yet to see a lead this season they didn’t want to give up. If they play Jacksonville or Tennessee in 2 weeks, they probably have a chance. But they’re going to be embarrassed by a high quality opponent.

I think that wave is more interesting than this Friday chance. Fresh HP over the top with a wave running to our south. Euro gave us a little mixed precipitation with it overnight. GGEM redevelops it offshore and gives us some snow.

Analogs are certainly useful and are the first order seasonal or monthly forecast. The last 2 months have shown 2 trends to me though: 1. Periodic high latitude blocking despite the strat PV 2. Changeable conditions with no pattern locking in for more than 10-15 days. Past events are no guarantee of the future though, so maybe those 2 trends break down, but I wouldn’t bet against it yet. What that means for our snow chances though is that we have to “hit” quickly. I don’t think we’ll get some 4 week long highly favorable pattern.

For this Friday thing to have any chance, we need the ULL to dig south of us and develop the coastal there so we can get any scrap of coldish air. GFS is moving the wrong way, but 12z euro wasn’t too far off.

Friday. GGEM amplifies the follow up wave and gives us some digital blue (and green) next weekend. Seems like lots of chances coming up. Marginal cold air, but hopefully “enough” with the right storm track.

That trailing trough is getting more robust, but seems like just more 38F rain for most of us. Maybe mashed potatoes for @psuhoffman and @mappy.

Digital blue for new years!

Second Feb 2010 was a classic Miller B with a northern stream shortwave that exploded off the coast.

Kudos to you on the December call that seemed destined for a bust 3 weeks ago. Hope you’re equally prescient for January!

+4-8F in Canada is still cold enough for us to snow

BWI got down to 36 this morning somehow. Only +9F on the low!

Pretty foggy here. 1/4mi vis?

Lol 40” between Jan 10-Feb 2.

Liar

Walking on the mall in DC and need to find some indoors air conditioned building soon

I’m here and I am on vacation actually lol. Just not going to spend too much time parsing D9+.

Weenie tears

Strat news

Probably because the strat vortex is very strong, but also has not been well coupled to the troposphere this winter.

All 4 major airports saw similar departures from this cold air: 24th: ~ - 23F 25th: ~ - 15F 26th: ~ -12F All are running 2-3F BN for December. Will walk some of that back the next few days, so maybe ending around -1F?

The goalposts are moving so fast in here. Need to call in Justin tucker for the 72yd field goal into the wind.

Also…by eye, it looks like the AO flips negative even sooner on the GEFS. Around the 4th.

A shift to a more favorable longwave pattern remains steady around the 7th/8th. Not much else worth looking at IMO before this weekend assuming that doesn’t change.

High of 32. Going to be a solid 96 hours at or below freezing IMBY by tomorrow.