WxUSAF
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Was thinking this the other day and some Twitter Mets have been posting about it now, but the “relax” period around new years is basically a canonical super El Niño pattern. Pretty odd in the midst of a 3rd year La Niña. As that big AK/NPac trough rotates back west toward the Aleutians and Kamchatka, the PNA and EPO ridge will go back up and we’ll chill back down. Very Nino-like evolution. No pattern has been locking in for very long (clearly…), so I imagine we’ll have opportunities by/after Jan 7-10.
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12z NAM is mostly upper 30s ahead of the front. Almost cold enough that the frontal rain line is frozen… freezing level around 925mb.
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It’s gonna snow
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How else can you summarize the synoptic environment that led up to the event and describe those 2 runs of the Eta that teased us with 2-4” forecasts before the NGM schooled it at 36 hours out?
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@psuhoffmanremembers
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Enjoy! Chilly evening. We like it even though it can be crowded.
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So I guess we got that going for us?
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Got some Troegs blizzard of hops tonight. Will save for a snowy day…Friday??
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HM trying to steal @CAPE’s storm…smdh
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Euro with a weak scraper. Gives cape cod some light snow. Closer to the GGEM than gfs certainly.
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GGEM has the coastal next week…
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Actually…maybe yes on a -20F day if GFS is right on here
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GFS still saying snow for almost everyone after the arctic front
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12z RGEM looks like it has a little snow for the metros after the front Friday.
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22.5 for the low. Beltsville farm fields were 22 just now as I drove through, so wouldn’t be surprised if they were in the upper 10s a couple hours ago.
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Looking like we won’t be able to get a -20F day out of this arctic airmass over the weekend. -15F quite possible though. Morning lows (as is often the case) are the hold up. Daytime highs look about 20F BN.
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Hope you recover quickly @Clueless! Enjoy the windy frozen mud this holiday season!!
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Dude. Just tell me when it's going to snow and how much. K thx bai
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He’s having a fit because Tony Pann is hyping snow
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Lol they’re going to get embarrassed in a WC game
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You all heard it! @high risk says get your shovels ready!
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All 3 ops have a pretty healthy shortwave. Just can’t slow down and turn the corner.
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Compare with the GGEM on TT. It shows “blue” but with basically no accumulation on the snow maps. I tried to look on Pivotal (with 3hr resolution) to see if there’s a wave that forms on the front and can explain the 1-3” on the GFS. Answer is “maybe”…isobars do look a little baggy as the front passes.
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I’m not saying it will happen, but I think the TT and Pivotal snow plots are “real”. Snow behind an arctic front is pretty common with this sort of dynamics. This is the juiciest I’ve seen it though yet.
