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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Yes. Placement of that ridge is very important. Definitely risks of cold dry/warm wet if the ridge axis is farther west. But if that ridge stays along the coast and we keep the very active pattern that’s ahead, odds are good we’d get some hits.
  2. WxUSAF
    @TSG that was a great post and please copy it over to the CC subforum. We’re going to try and keep that conversation there though.
  3. WxUSAF
    All 3 ensemble suites show the broader longitudinal trough underneath a growing -NAO late in their runs. Coupled with a -EPO/-AO, that’s a very nice look as you said. But the GEFS especially keeps that ridge farther off the west coast, which would generate more cutters before that point. And if the -NAO didn’t develop, the SE ridge would pop quickly. GEPS and EPS keep more ridging along the west coast which is far better for us.
  4. WxUSAF
    I’d be a little surprised if something worked out around the 21st, but not shocked and euro shows that.
  5. WxUSAF
    Haven’t seen the GEPS, but hopefully it has that western ridge more onshore. GEFS keeps wobbling it west which will frustrate us.
  6. WxUSAF
    I think you’re looking at 6z, but the point is still valid. An active pattern gives us that many more rolls of the dice. There just probably still be more cutters than people want… I think we go from “guaranteed shutout” to “non-zero chance” after the 20th, then chances hopefully get a little better with each subsequent wave.
  7. WxUSAF
    Each of the 3 ensemble systems did something at the very end of their runs last night that I really liked. Way out there, but what else is there to talk about? They all pull a piece of the trop PV underneath the strong -AO and growing east based -NAO with a broad trough in eastern north America. And here the remnant WAR/SE ridge is still helpful to keep the storm track nearby. I like it a lot.
  8. WxUSAF
    Exactly! MAJOR pattern change!
  9. WxUSAF
    Good news. Pattern change only 9.5 days away!
  10. WxUSAF
    High of 44. Reasonably January like.
  11. WxUSAF
    All 3 are better than now though so we’ll get what we get and make a huge fit. Is that how that saying goes?
  12. WxUSAF
    No defined 50-50 and not a 5SD -NAO, so maybe we’ll get lucky with some front end sleet? Congrats Burlington.
  13. WxUSAF
    EPS pattern is NOICE
  14. WxUSAF
    It’s like a 12-24hr can kick, which could just be it “seeing” another shortwave in western Canada. I don’t love the look the GEFS has, but still better than now. Has some potential at least. Let’s see if the EPS holds.
  15. WxUSAF
    Lots of cold air available nearby at least, but it’s probably one of those cutter—boundary wave sort of patterns that @psuhoffman is dreading. Crap ton better than we have now though I guess.
  16. WxUSAF
    Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern.
  17. WxUSAF
    With a very active pattern over the next 10+ days, the last 2 GFS and GGEM runs show how eventually one of those can work out for us for some frozen precipitation. One cutter goes through and blows up as a transient 50-50 low and provides enough cold air and/or a far enough south storm track for the subsequent storm to put us on the happy side of the thermal boundary. But even this is still after January 20 as the pattern is hopefully transitioning.
  18. WxUSAF
    Shit the blinds? Funny, but I’m editing that.
  19. WxUSAF
    Meh. CFS flip flops like a fish, but seems “ok” to me for Feb. GEFSX would mean my magnolia is blooming after Valentine’s Day. I’m not going to worry about a workable pattern ending until the workable pattern at least arrives.
  20. WxUSAF
    Oh dear. Now there’s definitely a storm brewing with the 12z runs.
  21. WxUSAF
    Low of 27 with heavy frost
  22. WxUSAF
    Snow is always an IMBY game of course, but I’ve been satisfied personally the last 2 Niña years (20-21 and 21-22) and our last Nino year (18-19). The disaster year (19-20) was ENSO neutral. No can kick either on todays 12z EPS. Good agreement with GEFS on longwave pattern and timing. Ridge out west goes up on the 20th-21st. So now we wait and see how real it is and how quickly we can cool down and have a storm chance.
  23. WxUSAF
    JB’s brain is completely addled. But if we flip to a cold pattern around the 20-25th and maintain a cooler than normal pattern through much of February on balance, that will be a more Nino-like cycle. I think this winter has behaved more Nino-like than Niña-like so far for whatever reason. California waves hello…Nino’s have colder February’s and Nina’s have warm Februarys. So what will this year bring?
  24. WxUSAF
    It’s a cold look for sure and finally the 2m temp plots start to reflect that. Reminds me of 13-14 with a -AO/-EPO/+PNA/and a WAR. The western ridge starts to pop around hr240-264, so getting pretty close to a time range with good ensemble skill. No sign of a can kick.
  25. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman…with a PNA/EPO ridge unconnected to the ridging over the Atlantic side across Canada and a piece of the PV in between, central Canada cools down in only 48 hours after the ridge goes up.
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