WxUSAF

Line of showers (storms?) getting close. After jogging outside in shorts and a T-shirt, feels like May!

GEFS/EPS/Euro combo is a pretty solid team. Just need it to hold for awhile.

This is obviously still a D9 event with all associated caveats, but as we’ve seen today, what happens around the 10-12th is critical to setting up confluence and any semblance of a workable airmass. That shortwave actually enters the CONUS over California in 72 hours! Here it is north of San Francisco. 24 hours later it’s out over the Plains. At the same time, the piece of the PV it merges with is swinging south on the west edge of Hudson Bay. So the table setters, so to speak, are not far off.

@psuhoffman fringed on a D9 coastal? Oh yeah, this is the one

Lol, Op GFS goes one way and GEFS actually goes toward more of a southern slider without turning up the coast. Weeeeee…

Not much water vapor has gotten into the northern hemisphere and basically none got into the northern stratosphere winter PV. So if there is any connection, I think it’s subtle and through some other feedback.

Someone else will have to check the digital blue report, but I like the surface and H5 evolution so far through hr192.

@psuhoffman, I agree as you know. But yeah, I’d hope the fresh 1040mb high pressure in a perfect spot could do SOMETHING useful. On a happier note, GEFS has a much more robust 50-50 feature and looks workable so far.

It 100% fits the seasonal trend

Oh jeez, GGEM on the cutter parade too all of a sudden.

1040 mb high in position f-cking A with a monster 50-50 and gfs is going to take this thing to Hudson Bay.

GGEM looks like 0z euro for the Sunday white rain threat. Most of the precip slides through VA.

GFS serving mashed potatoes for Sunday dinner

It’s close…maybe tomorrow am if it’s still a thing by then?

1200’ elevation in the Blue Ridge not worried about temps. Got to get that precip here!

It looked a lot like the 12z euro around D6-7, and then it just went crazy.

Seems like 2 general camps in the EPS. One stronger that rides the coast. One generally a bit weaker that’s more suppressed.

Tantalizingly close. I’d expect some nice hits in the ensembles. If things developed just as the euro showed, it would come down the precise track, strength, and timing of the PV and 50/50 type low in Canada. Gonna be awhile before that is sorted. Lot to like about this window.

No, it’s not cutting. Hr216 is pretty classic for us. Low near Memphis and big banana high over the top. Snow breaking out in the NC mountains.

Come on baby, daddy wants some digital blue…

Pretty nice at hr198…can the euro find a way to cut it to Buffalo with a nearly 1050mb high over top and the PV in Quebec?

Euro has flurries and sprinkles for this weekend, but I’m definitely intrigued so far for our D9-10 window. Storm developing in the Rockies at hr174 with a good HP overtop and a piece is the trop PV sliding through eastern Canada.

Agreed. The D8-15 ensembles have been pretty good this year at broad strokes (which is what they’re for). I’d mostly just say that another torch period in late January doesn’t mean winters over because no pattern has locked in very long for 2+ months. Not sure why that would suddenly change. But, seeing that look in late January does increase the urgency to get some snow beforehand.

GEFS does look pretty nice for the 13-14th window. Seems like more of a slider/redeveloper on the means, but that could still give us some snow as long as it’s not squashed to myrtle beach like the GGEM.

GFS seems completely on an island with the evolution early next week, and we’ve seen how that’s gone for the gfs so far this season. But GGEM also has a potent northern stream shortwave bring in a legit respectable airmass ahead of anything late next week. But that squashes everything. Definitely a lot going on…hopefully we can get something.