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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Cold is around 30 minutes behind schedule vs modeling. I was modeled to change over at 1 and I don't think I'm going to get there. Another surge of heavy rain and 41 degrees.
  2. John1122
    Just flooding down rain. Gonna be so close to ending here when the cold arrives. Just have to hope the backing happens. I may be too far West and this might be the time things verify more East than west on a modeled precip shield.
  3. John1122
    Trying to see if it popped/where the Lee side low may be. Right now the only surface map i can find with a L shows it near Harlan Ky.
  4. John1122
    34 just west of me in Scott co. Down to 42 here.
  5. John1122
    Below freezing about 80 miles west of me. 47 here with moderate rain. Looks like its 47 in Oneida and 36 in Jamestown.
  6. John1122
    This area will progress quickly. The reason Eastern areas see snow initially is a low will develop on the front and basically stop it until the low passes. The rest is from convective snow bands from a trailing upper level disturbance.
  7. John1122
    RGEM keeps on flexing like Hulk Hogan.
  8. John1122
    3k NAM.
  9. John1122
    3k NAM is going to be more aggressive with the initial snow and has the convection captured in the Mid-state popping.
  10. John1122
    06z NAM moved everything about 25 miles further West. Knoxville for instance want from 2 to 3 inches. My area went from around 1 inch to around 2.5. Holston in MoCo went from blanked to around 1.5 inches. That's without anything convective yet. The NAM 12k just doesn't see it like the other models but appears to have a bit breaking out in Eastern Middle early Christmas morning.
  11. John1122
    06z HRRR at 33. Still convective snow showers dotting Tennessee at this time.
  12. John1122
    On the HRRR at 11am/10c tomorrow its 46 degrees in central Scott County. 20 miles away in Central Fentress it's 32 degrees. That's a potent drop over a short distance.
  13. John1122
    HRRR is rocking around 4PM along the 75 corridor.
  14. John1122
    Not quite as heavy as 18z but moved the blue about 25 miles further West it looks like.
  15. John1122
    Euro looks like it may have backed off from 18z but I don't have ratio'd maps. It was an improvement from 12z for me at least.
  16. John1122
    With the Euro and UKIE pending. 0z GFS/18z Euro/0z HRRR similar with frozen precip shield further West. 0zRGEM/0zGGEM/3zRAP similar with larger frozen precip field. 0z NAM nest (NAM/HRF) similar eastern solution.
  17. John1122
    03z 39 hour RAP.
  18. John1122
    Christmas morning at 7. Still bands of snow in the valley region at this point.
  19. John1122
    You're likely correct. In this case I'm mainly referring to the precip shield. Modeling notoriously under estimates the N and W side of precip fields.
  20. John1122
    Everything is moving towards the Canadian/RGem at this point. The NW trend is a thing in every type of system apparently.
  21. John1122
    I seriously doubt that they change anything. If they do it will be the 4am update.
  22. John1122
    Rain started here about 45 minute ago. Temp is actually up a degree to 48.
  23. John1122
    RGEM has been rock steady since hr 84 when it first "saw" the system. A few years ago it kept dropping 5 to 6 inches imby when other modeling had an inch or so. They finally caved to it 6 hours before the event started and even then never got above 3 inches. I ended up with 6-7 inches.
  24. John1122
    The warning there is often in place for elevation purposes so I can't see them changing. They actually think the far southeast areas will get 6 to 8 on mountain tops.
  25. John1122
    The Euro hopefully has a few more westward creeps in it. Was it faster cold or a bigger precip shield?
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