John1122

It's wild that the UKIE has blanked the western half of the state so consistently while the Canadian models were burying it. Now the Canadian models have backed off on it a lot too.

06z GFS

The RGEM just smashed Hamilton Co. Northern areas get over a foot. A solid 6 inches in Chattanooga proper. Almost a foot and a half in NE Georgia. The RGEM was being reasonable yesterday but it's on the NAM stuff.

MRX expanded the watch to all the VA and KY border counties and down the Plateau for 4-6 inches. I think they'll probably have to expand that area.

OHX pulled the trigger on a winter storm watch for 3-7 inches with higher amounts possible across what appears to be it's entire CWA or close to it.

@PowellVolz is probably pretty close to the 8 inch/14 inch line on the NAM map. It jumps from 8 to 14 over a very short distance in Northern Knox County.

The 3k isn't far enough out to catch the last 12 or so hours of the event yet. Major winter storm with heavy ice and heavy snow through 60 though.

The NAM doesn't cut the Apps this time, it transfers from East Central Alabama to South Carolina. Still downslopes the east and warm nose battlezone is around 40. It just crushes the Plateau and westward. It NAMs the Plateau into oblivion. 24 inches in NW Cumberland. 18+ widespread over the Plateau and Anderson and Union Co. It just pounds snow for 20 hours. It's the second biggest NAMming I've ever seen for mby. Legendary run for all but the far Eastern areas but still a significant winter storm there. Massive .4 to .6 ice totals from Northern Blount county up the apps to Mountain City. Some areas of the mid-state get .3 ice and 10 inches or more of snow that run. If it verified, snow would be on the ground well into February in the big hit areas and possibly in most of the area with the coming cold.

Canadian still has this one.

It should have a good shot. When it snows it will be when the cold side of the storm has dropped Temps and the eastern valley areas with less snow that run had some heavy sleet before the change over. A sleet layer would mean fast sticking.

Euro ends up here.

Euro doesn't cut and runs the low up across Central NC just like the GFS. It had a big Northern Valley dry slot earlier so totals in the East won't be what they were earlier at 12z.

Basically a near exact match of the 3k at 60.

Eastern Valley warm nose that wasn't as pronounced at 12z. Rain up to Anderson County in the eastern valley.

Maybe slightly warmer vs 12z. Major winter Storm unfolding north of 40 from the Plateau west by 1am Sunday morning.

Euro maybe 25 miles west vs 12z thru 42. See if that changes anything down the run.

The 3k, which I hadn't looked at, looks like it would pass the bottom of the mountains and not cut.

For whatever reason the individual Ens were poor for the West half of the state. Only two were big hits state wide.

He didn't take getting fired from WVLT very well.

I'm 99 percent sure that's either the NAM or the Canadian from about 36 hours ago when one run cut into Kentucky.

She apparently took it quite differently and was surprised when I said Campbell County could see 4-6 inches of heavy wet snow.

I just spoke to someone who watched WVLT weather and they were surprised that it might snow here. She said the WVLT met just said any snow that falls outside the high mountains or maybe Crossville and Jamestown wouldn't stick and there was nothing to be concerned about at all.

There's a verification link on the NBM info website.

I've noticed their predicted snowfall maps is often that. As I typed in reply to Tellico, my phone brought up an amber alert in Tellico. Hope everyone ends up okay in that down there.

That 00z will probably lead to expanded watches and is probably why Nashville and Jackson just sent out messages about winter weather being more likely.