John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GFS is just all in. It's either gonna bust wide open or score big. 13 inches imby that run.
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MRX upgraded SWVa to a winter storm warning. Left the watch for my area and added a tier of counties below the watch to a WWA. I'm curious to read their AFD explaining why they did so. It's certainly not based on model guidance from overnight. Also not sure why it takes so long for the AFD to come out on days when it's potentially snowy. It normally rolls out around 3 am, looks like it's going to be 2 hours behind this morning.
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Looks like MRX lowered my snow totals quite a bit from the forecast yesterday. Odd, the models actually all got better tonight. Oh well, boom or bust as the thread says.
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They will likely add winter products of some kind with their update here shortly. I am not sure what though. It's a tough forecast at best. Especially in the I-81 corridor.
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Low seemed to transfer at 42, then it moves from Central NC. NW into WVA. It's at 990 in West Virginia Sunday evening. That's a tropical storm strength. NE areas getting snow still. Low drops to 989 then starts moving due east through 48. Good run for most except the Knoxville area and NW Tennessee/SWKY.
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By 40 it's filled in precip in NE areas as frozen. The Low is about to cross into Virginia.
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Up to Boone NC by HR 38, Plateau to Mid-state getting hit nicely. Frozen in a straight line from basically Middlesboro due south to NE Georgia and points west.
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Next hour it runs up to Clingsman Dome. super downsloping the NE areas. The downslope reaches all the way to Claiborne Co. Which would be extreme to say the least.
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The HRRR looks like it might be letting the L slip onto the other side of the Apps. It's in SW NC at 999 with a big time deform band on the Plateau.
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The HRRR caught on about 24 hours out with the fact that far eastern areas would struggle. The RAP and 3k NAM did as well. We will see if they make any big moves tomorrow.
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Euro maintains.
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RAP finally came north.
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The Oz GFS shows basically what Nashville NWS is talking about for the midstate. I suspect MRX won't be as bullish as the GFS for their below 40 counties that rack up that run.
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10" on the GFS at 0z. Using my 50-60 percent of snowfall method I should be sitting pretty for 5+ inches.
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If you're not opposed to clinched cheeks getting up there, the top of Cross Mountain is 3000-3500 feet and is generally being modeled for 12+.
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0z models so far that cover the whole event imby, 9 inches on the NAM, 9 inches on the Rgem.
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Rgem was still snowing at 84 too.
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My modeled floor is 4 inches. Max 9ish in today's runs. I have 0 confidence in any accumulations.
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The 18z Euro is just smoking western and midstate areas. I don't know who will cave or just be wrong out that way, but something has to give between the almost nothing models and the Euro giving Memphis 8-10 inches.
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Hopefully one of the potential future events the rest of the month comes off without a hitch. This one is like watching a soap opera with your granny on summer vacation. You never know exactly what's going on but you know she won't let you watch anything else while her programs are on, so you try to make the best of it.
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The other odd thing about the upper level warm pockets is they are at different levels of the atmosphere. I'm raining at one point and the NAM has 700mb above freezing. 80 miles due south of me the entire column is well below freezing and it's snowing. Another area is raining NE of me and everything is well below freezing until about 925mb, which is near 38f for about 500 feet of atmosphere.
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The NAM precip depictions make no sense at all with any system I've ever seen. I've never seen the NW side of a storm having mix/zr/rain issues under heavy returns while areas south of there have snow. It's the most oddly structured upper level warm pockets I've ever seen.
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The DGEX probably.
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Euro was better for the NE Eastern Valley, a little worse from Knoxville S. Keeps the mid-state as the best area. Only a few more model runs to go before obs take over.
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Apparently at HR 51 is did run it up briefly before the transfer. Looks like it books it up the coast this time instead of lingering around.
