weatherwiz

Wow 18z HRRR is really early tomorrow...in fact, so early we probably don't achieve full instability potential

But that may be driven by the very strong shear. Like a decade ago or whatever they did some updating to the algorithm to that product and it tends to go wild when shear is high

SPC SREF beefing up TOR potential tomorrow

It's the primary reason we don't do severe well here. Folks blame alot on the marine influence but IMO that is not the biggest reason. It certainly doesn't help, but when you have the proper ingredients/setup the marine influence is nada. Obviously early in the season it's going to be a big factor. IMO, these are the top reasons why we don't do well with severe here: 1) Poor mid-level lapse rates: There is a difference between low-level or surfaced-based CAPE and mid-level or mixed-layer CAPE. You can have robust surface CAPE but weak mixed-layer CAPE. What happens here is the strong surfaced-based CAPE will accelerate your parcels to the LCL and LFC and boom that's when you see rapid storm development...but at a certain point in the storm development the strengthening stops. With weak mid-level lapse rates the temperature difference between the parcels and environment lessens which results in less buoyancy and slower acceleration. When you have steep mid-level lapse rates (driven by EML or cold mid-level temperatures) the temperature difference remains great and parcels can continue to accelerate rapidly. 2) Weaker forcing: It is possible the curvature of the Earth plays a role in this, but often times as shortwave troughs advance into southeastern Canada we'll see the strongest shortwave forcing remain north of the International border and subsequently the stronger dynamics will also remain north. In these scenarios as the cold front drives east along with the thunderstorms, the thunderstorms become removed and displaced from this stronger forcing/dynamics. This becomes critical because this stronger forcing can aid significantly in the acceleration of parcels through the troposphere so convection can remain deep. We've seen setups before with severe occurring down to the coast and even some significant severe. If the marine influence was as strong as some say, we probably wouldn't see that happen. Don't get me wrong, marine air does play an influence but it holds much weight than what some think. The biggest reasons why severe chances weaken as you move south and east are really more tied into my #2 above. The situations where we do have favorable ingredients and the stronger forcing is south of the border...we see severe persist closer to the coast.

ehhh it's a bit more complex than that. There are aspects to this pattern which actually would favor some more exciting severe chances but there's persistent features which are mitigating that potential. For example, tomorrow. That's an unseasonably strong mid-level wind field overspreading the region with the flow WSW. While the cold front is not terribly strong shortwave forcing actually is pretty solid along with height falls. But because mid-level lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are so warm this will significantly reduce upward parcel acceleration which will ultimately result in weaker updrafts. Surface CAPE will be high which will assist in convection rapidly forming once the ConvT is reached but once parcels rise above a certain level the acceleration upwards will be slowed significantly which will hinder deep convection from being established. This will be shown very well with the degree of lightning density tomorrow.

That is certainly true but with that you run the risk of the thunderstorms outracing the better shortwave forcing. But looks like we'll see another two line scenario with one line impacting PA/NJ/NYC and the second line NYS through southern VT, NH, and parts of MA. If we had steeper mid-level lapse rates (even ~6.5 C/KM) and mid-level temps weren't as warm I think we would be dealing with a much higher potential.

It's a bit faster with the timing but this may be due to the fact that convection forms ahead of the pre-frontal trough as opposed to the cold front which is typically the case anyways. We actually have a quite a bit going for us, but because the mid-level lapse rates are so weak and mid-levels relatively warm this really cuts back on the overall potential. While widespread severe is certainly not happening there may be some localized intense storms. Wind shear is very strong aloft with some indications of winds backing a bit in the llvls. Storm mode will be predominately linear but an embedded supercell would be possible.

I hear it's been super hot and dry in Utah too

That sounds great but that is pointless without any thunderstorm chances. Just like winter...cold is pointless without snow. 80's with dewpoints in the lower 70's is perfect...because then at night it drops into the 70's and it's very comfortable to be outside. Maybe the Gulf will pick up with tropical and you'll get remnants.

I don't want to be under the death ridge with no convection lol. You've just been baking outside of the solid severe chances you had a few months ago but everything missed you.

At this point we really may never get into the bigger heat or anything sustained at least. The pattern across the Arctic domain just doesn't want to let up. That omega block pattern just continues to be persistent. These pieces of shortwave energy which move into southeastern Canada just ride along the jet stream and amplify significantly as they move into southeastern Canada with that strong ridging in the polar region. Also that ridging keeps oscillating between the interior West and central Plains.

Posted this in the severe thread but nobody goes in there but is there a true warm front which lifts north tomorrow night or Tuesday morning? Can't find anything definitive supporting a warm front but it boggles me b/c we're advecting a higher theta-e airmass in but maybe it's just the result of developing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough?

Actually you know what...is there really a true warm front which lifts north? I can't find anything really supporting a warm front. I guess the advection of the higher theta-e airmass is just due to the developing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough?

Not even sure why I'm making this thread because it really is stupid and this summer sucks. First off, this isn't going to be a widespread severe weather threat and event, ok. I mean those don't happen around here very often. So when one gets excited for severe potential you're doing so with the understanding that you're really just hoping to see a thunderstorm and anything else is a bonus. But anyways, this sucks, this summer sucks, but on Tuesday...yeah there is the chance for thunderstorms and the best potential will probably be western Massachusetts and western Connecticut because the stupid timing looks too freaking slow...as always. Anyways on Tuesday shortwave energy rounding the base of a longwave trough will move across southeastern Canada and northern New England with a cold front at the surface. Ahead of the cold front it will actually be quite warm and humid with temperatures climbing well into the 80's (cooler for you mountainous folk and for those who live under a forest). Dewpoints will continue to climb through the day into the evening so highest dewpoints will likely be towards evening. While crappy mid-level lapse rates (b/c that's all we freaking get is stupid, garbage mid-level lapse rates) will hold back how unstable we can become, combination of temperatures into the 80's and dewpoints pushing through the 60's should contribute to 1000-1500 J/KG. Note: Despite the loss of surface heating moving into the evening the increasing dewpoints will offset this to keep the CAPE in place. Shear...shear is actually pretty strong with as much as 40-50 knots of bulk shear modeled. This is unseasonably strong and would help with thunderstorm organization. There may even be enough low-level shear present to warrant the potential for a tornado, especially in any discrete storm. but let's remember THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS WEST B/C EVERYTHING SUCKS. We should see one or multiple lines of convection develop and push towards southern New England during the evening. We will see this weaken and given the stupid weak lapse rates and modest deep CAPE lightning probably won't be much. Stupid but we'll see. Let's just get this over with.

That is terrible. Horrifically depressing. We may as well just skip to December

Severe threat Tuesday!!!!!! But I’m not starting a thread. It’s a big fat jinx

I would think even a lower end category 2 would produce damage near the catastrophic end. A category 3 could probably make some areas unlivable for months, especially the shoreline. You would think power outages would persist several weeks in the hardest hit areas and you would probably be looking at >80-90% power outages for several days to week. I agree with pretty much everything you said here. These would be the conditions needed to facilitate such an event. Of course too exact track and where landfall were to occur would dictate just how catastrophic an event would be. One other factor to consider too is climate change and warmer waters, especially south of Long Island. If we were to ever see a strong hurricane moving up the coast, it may not weaken like it would have before, especially if the forward speed is quite fast. It really is just a matter of when for such a scenario to occur. I guess we can only hope that if such a storm did come up the coast it wouldn't make landfall and just brush off with the center passing east of Cape Cod. We would still get pounded but that might prevent a total worst case scenario...?

I saw a dust devil once. Should have honestly been rated...nearly blew me over. It was my senior year of high school back in 2006. I used to do the scorebook for the baseball team. It was a hot (but not humid) day with temperatures probably close to 90. There were no clouds and no breeze. All of a sudden this huge gust of wind kicks up and there were some leaves back by the corner of the school that were rising in a circular motion. It was coming at us. As it crossed into the gravel/sand it started to pick up rocks and dirt. It was an very strong burst of wind. Knocked the coach off the bench and it lifted the medical kit several feet into the air. As it traveled along the field the vortex easily extended hundreds of feet into the air and went clear across the field before dissipating at the end of the field near the road. It had also taken up my papers and you could see papers swirling hundreds of feet into the air. This is the best part...it took the umpires check and it was found the next day in Windsor, CT or Enfield (I forget which town). So it traveled in the air from West Hartford and was found in someone's yard. Getting pelted by the pebbles was not fun...well actually it was

Good ole Dallas where you're more likely to see a tornado touchdown than a Cowboys touchdown

WE NEED A FASTER FRONT TUESDAY. ughhhh please speed up. This is looking a bit tasty...at least compared to this summer's standards.

500 heights > 600m and over a pretty large area. Pretty much going to be an oven under that

I would kill for another pattern like 2008. Just a consistent cold pool aloft setup. June and July were wild with the daily setups and we were even getting severe at night. One of those events I think actually generated the most severe reports in the BOX CWA on record and up until that point I think like 11% of large hail reports in NYS occurred that summer lol. I forget the date in June 2008...maybe June 10 but I had a hail storm where the hail lasted a good 15-minutes. 2007 was solid too. June 5, 2007 actually featured supercells across CT/MA. I remember going into that day the TOR probs were like 0 or maybe 2% from SPC but we were firing off supercells prompting tornado warnings. Winds backed around the pre-frontal and were strong enough to enhance the llvl shear.

At least Tuesday still looks like we could see some storms but the timing of the front looks like it will SUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK once again. Anyways shear looks pretty strong and lapse rates may not be overly terrible but all the best ingredients may be out of sync. One thing though is the best shortwave forcing may actually be just south of the international border which may help a bit.

Tuesday looks hot/humid ahead of the front

Was just saying in general. But yeah that certainly is not mid-range. But I seriously hope that 12z GEFS verifies. Over-the-top heat and that pattern is likely to swing some MCS this way. 700 shows a subtle trough in the West so maybe we can get some EML advection around the top of the ridge too. I'm mostly fantasizing here but if you want such potential that is the look to make it happen...doesn't mean that it will though