weatherwiz

You know…I’ve always wondered how/why specific hail size gets mentioned in these watches but I guess there’s enough research done where you can have a very good idea on what the max hail size will be…but how often in severe setups do you see max hail size be a widespread thing? Thing in this case how many 5” hail reports will there truly be?

5” hail possible. can’t wait to get into some of this potential soon

This does suck. It's supposed to be well into the 60's now. I mean 50's felt fine going into the month but it sucks when you can't even climo.

yeah right

Perhaps the most frustrating thing this time of year is looking at forecast CAPE values on the GFS and watching bigger CAPE values trying to sneak into the Northeast and then BOOM...gone, bye-bye

ugly...U...G...L...Y May is going bye-bye

Fading hope for some really nice warm days next week

Only when it’s below 80

I’m still wearing a light jacket, sweatshirt, and a winter hat

Based on how the past several years have transpired I would fully expect that we flip the switch and go right into summer-mode probably sometime in June. This seems to have been the theme the past several years. I know going the base of consistency is never the best route to go but until something breaks this it's a plausible way to think.

Agreed with this. How things have gone should not really be shocking at all. I think we've just been spoiled by some of the anomalously warm springs we had gone through over the past 10-15 years. Does it blow...it absolutely blows, I think everyone is tired of chilly weather and cold winds...especially when we've had the pleasure of having some very nice days and warm temperatures but we've seen nothing out of the ordinary this spring.

That is one monster off off to the north. Looks like it's going to work hard at suppressing any systems. Terrible

This cold and wind is miserable. I just keep closing my eyes and telling myself only another few weeks until hast and humidity

As far as I see it this has been about as typical of a spring as you could expect here. We’ve had a mix of just about everything.

Let’s make it happen!

It's so difficult to put so much stock into medium/long-range guidance this time of year, especially when the flow is very chaotic. Looks like over the upcoming weeks we'll see very similar weather to that of April. There are some opportunities for some very mild-to-warm days upcoming but crummy days may be just as equal. Don't like the omega block look though that seems to be popping up. Need to get rid of the favorable pattern allowing for cut-off/closed off lows off the coast of Maine dragging down heights.

May actually see some convective potential sometime during the first half of next week...perhaps multiple days with potential. Some pretty decent shortwave energy coming in from the West with strong flow aloft. There will be opportunity to warm sector too with an established 850 low passing well to our West. Not much (right now anyways) showing up to prevent warm front from penetrating north at the surface (obviously can always change).

At the start of this thread, May is only 6-days away which means the start of severe weather season is right around the corner!!! April has proven to be a rather typical spring month here in New England with some rather warm days, some rather chilly days, days with rain, and even some snow. As we head towards the month of May, there are some conflicting signals within the long-range guidance. If one just looks at an averaged 500mb pattern you can draw conclusions, but at the end of the day those conclusions will probably not be accurate. The conflicting signals likely correlate to the fact that the pattern across North America will continue to remain volatile and perhaps dominated by a series of ridges/troughs propagating through the country. One of the biggest factors may be how the pattern is configured around the Arctic (most notable the NAO/AO). Typically, these indices start having less influence on the pattern as you move through spring, but they can certainly shape the pattern and play big factors through May. And unfortunately, there are conflicting signals on the evolution of these indices moving through May. Let's just hope that whatever happens, we can get into some patterns which usher in big heat, high humidity, EML's, and lots of convection!!

lawns were only good for passing out on after too many 40's

Everything always starts growing at about the same time every year...the same time. Conditions can certainly speed up the rate of growth or slow down the rate of growth but things will always start around the same time. It's encoded in plans/trees/grass DNA.

As long as something is living...it's growing.

EML's for all.

I hope we don't have to deal with a persist cyclone like we did the first few months of last spring/summer but it keeps popping up on models. I hope as we go deep into May the pattern alters slightly (no low heights just to our north) and we can run a train of EML's in here

ahh this is more like it

The wind gusts are crazy. Are there links for like real-time wind speeds? I'm in Springfield and checked what CEF was reporting along with BDL and the wind gusts on the last obs certainly is far less than what's going on now.