weatherwiz

Woooooooohoooooo

Maybe I'll take the drive there after. If my pants are stuck to my thighs upon getting out of the car we'll know the answer.

oh yeah Quebec gets nailed. They are really in a prime spot for severe.

HRRR becoming a bit more aggressive with some strong convection tonight

Yeah pretty much. Plus I'm sure they do very well with lapse rates and given how they do get quite warm they probably do well in the instability department.

I'm sick and tired of opening up Radarscope and seeing these massive severe thunderstorm watch boxes in Canada. Not fair. I mean it seems like some of these areas have been under a watch for like 3 weeks straight...wtf.

what chartnumber was that? EDIT: I see 159

Trying to find the correct plot on ISU but so many to look through

I have a friend going too. Asked me the same question. It's a really tough call. The timing of thunderstorms should be mid-to-late afternoon which obviously isn't good given the 4:00 game. I was initially thinking yesterday the start of the game could be delayed but that they should be able to play. But CAMS today aren't very helpful. Would appear the game could get started on time then delayed at some point.

Looks like some stupid subtle warm layers to contend with. Probably be a situation where E MA and RI is best.

meh nothing is interesting...it's all just a big pile of teasing crap. That's what we do best here...crap. Can't get any good instability in here or good lapse rates. It's like mother nature sprayed New England with an instability/lapse rate repellant...well fook you mother nature. I hope someone sprays you with a pesticide and your powers dwindle. Like summer is almost over really. Maybe we can get some type of sick August threat like we did in 2020 but other than that it all just sucks.

Wow!

Should have done that with November 13

CAMS struggling to develop much in the way of convection tomorrow. Looks like there could be a little bit of shortwave subsidence behind early morning activity. Also wonder if there could be some minor capping issues too. The mid-level lapse rates are certainly garbage but mid-level shear is looking healthier. Not sure how widespread convection will fire

We can still get big heat with a mid-level trough signal or a NW flow in the mid-levels. I think the issue is more ultimately the lower heights and trough signal in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. That's what is preventing these pushes of bigger heat/humidity from getting in and becoming consistent. It actually sucks b/c the 500mb pattern is one that could favor lots of convective/severe chances here but the lower-levels are crap.

Wow is the South going to bake again next week. Heat index values going to be up there too.

While it really hasn't happened so far, it really won't take much to get some longer duration heat/humidity to build in. As long as we're continuing to see fluxes of heat/humidity get into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic that opportunity will be there. Won't take much of a change to the overall pattern to get that in here. Same thing with winter...as long as you're building cold into Southeast Canada it doesn't take much to get that in here. The past decade I think has really re-shaped expectations when it comes to big heat here. For the most part, the majority of our 90F+ days comes in July through first half of August. One thing I'd be curious to know is see how the past 10-15 years compare with 90+ days at the major climo sites against the long-term average. BDL I think typically averages somewhere around 18-19 90F days per year? I would bet if you looked at the last 10-15 years the average has to be somewhere into the 20's. I mean a few years back they got to 41 or 42.

Does that mean a summer 98 repeat too?

I am haha

I've been thinking about this. Since we're now into July and have had squat...this event...this Saturday...this setup...is make or melt.

A warm front is set to lift northeast across New England Thursday night through Friday morning ushering in a much hotter and more humid airmass. Several weak disturbances will cross the Northeast Friday which may spark off isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night. All eyes then turn to Saturday... A substantial longwave trough moves across southeastern Canada through the day Saturday with a belt of strong westerlies traversing much of New England. An elongated cold front extending from near Hudson Bay through southeast Canada and into the Ohio Valley will advance southeast through the day Saturday with a pre-frontal trough becoming established across the Northeast. Out ahead of these features and very warm and humid airmass is expected with surface temperatures climbing into the lower 80's with dewpoints well into the 60's. While poor mid-level lapse rates will tamper instability, the combination of temperatures into the 80's and dewpoints well into the 60's should contribute to 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Forecast models indicate 30-50 knots of mid-level flow traversing the region (though weakening through the afternoon). Despite the fact the stronger shortwave forcing is along and north of the International border, modest mid-level flow should help contribute to storm organization ahead of the pre-frontal trough. As such multiple lines of showers and thunderstorms are expected develop and traverse southern New England Saturday afternoon into the evening. Given MLCape values on order of 1000-1500 J/KG the potential will exists for some of the thunderstorms to become severe. Despite the rather modest low-level winds characterized by 850mb winds <30 knots, forecast models develop steep low-level apse rates >8.5 -9 C/KM. These lapse rates, combined with the moderate buoyancy would support the potential for scattered wind damage. While flow is modest in the low-levels, some forecast models indicate some low-level directional shear becoming present in the vicinity of the pre-frontal trough. As such an isolated brief tornado would also be possible with the highest potential from southern New Hampshire into Worcester County. WE NEED SEVER!!!!!!!!!

One and done for some thunderstorm fun

As long as I get to see the anvil too! I'll be in Hartford for the Yard Goats game Saturday evening. Stadium has an amazing view to the north and west.

I just really want lots of lightning/thunder and a nice looking shelf cloud. Anything else is always a bonus.

I guess there is two ways to look at it...convective potential vs. severe potential. In terms of convective potential, it looks pretty solid to get an organized line to develop (or at least a broken line). I'm excited for this aspect. In terms of severe potential I don't think it's anything to write home about. There will probably be scattered wind damage with the line but nothing widespread. Despite the fact that mid-level lapse rates are poor and the strongest shortwave forcing is along/north of the International border, if low-level winds were like 10-15 knots stronger, given how steep the low-level lapse rates may become we may of had room for a bit more in the way of wind damage potential.