weatherwiz
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What's kind of interesting is regarding the parent low, it looks like models (especially mesos) never really develop a defined circulation. Almost looks like a series of mesolows which must be tied into the convection. This would certainly explain the NAM being removed from other guidance. -
Oh hail yeah. Now that's a giant hail producer
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Not only will today/tonight's convection play a factor, but tomorrow's convection too. I'm still puzzled at the expansive slight risk, but that area of enhanced risk is the focal point. Pretty strong signals for a rather small, but intense line of thunderstorms to move northeast through that corridor. Depending how robust that is that may really throw some wrenches in.
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Maybe after my 9.5% beer during the Bruin game tonight my feelings will change
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It's bizarre but you just can't toss a model b/c its not a desirable solution. I mean outside of swaying from other guidance, there's really no way to say with any certainty if it's an outlandish solution. But like I mentioned earlier, once we have an actual low developed (which that process is currently happening) and the convective episode is ongoing, the models will have a much better handle. for now, nothing can be tossed.
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that is one insane jet streak rounding the base of the trough...120+ knots at 500mb...wowzers
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maybe it incorporates sleet? but the real answer is b/c those products are trash
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Great post. One thing I noticed since moving in with my girlfriend is they SUCKKKKKKKKKKK with her roads. They didn't come by to plow the road Tuesday until like 1:30 PM. In the few storms since I've been there (well all last winter really) the road would be **** for days. Our snow guy came at 7:30 and I happened to look outside and the road was PERFECTLY clear.
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Yeah just looking through some bufkit profiles. Outside of the heavier omega snow ratios will be crap. Definitely closer to 7:1 or even 6:1. Where omega is quite significant ratios may even be closer to 15:1.
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If 18z guidance continues to be this suggestive with the thump it may be time to go big
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Even on the paltry NAM it has some hefty omega aloft. I seriously have no clue which way to hedge right now
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OMG This is BDL. that omega
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Great post and information!!!
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Here is GFS bufkit for BOS. That would be some heft snow rates
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We'll really know for certain with the 0z (f not 6z) runs tonight. By then the surface low will have developed and convection will be ongoing. The issues that models are having with the development of these two will be resolved and I would think model performance improves and becomes in stronger agreement.
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Guidance has been dreadful with temperatures pretty much throughout the country for weeks. I'm sure a large part of it has to do with the pattern but I mean they've been terrible. MOS, NBM, etc. I don't know much (well anything) about model physics, but I wonder how much of an impact something like this has on the models.
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Do you think the initial dry air could help with cooling that layer (evap cooling)? It's not a major warm layer so maybe it an cool just enough to prevent sleet. If the GFS is more correct there could see some dynamic cooling to offset a warm nose
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Agreed, mentioned that same thing too earlier. That's one major differentiator between this setup and earlier in the week. That system did not have much in the way of convection so it was one less thing to screw things up.
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It's beyond a nightmare. I mean this is even a nightmare forecast for the northern Ohio Valley. It is nearly impossible right now to just easily say "toss or "ride with" a particular piece of guidance.
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GFS looks to have a stronger HP north of Maine?
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The NAM I don't think is ever great as a while, but there are certain aspects of the NAM which are very good. It's never good to fully rely on it, but its never good to just completely toss it as well.
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Acquired Tyler Bertuzzi (though this raises concerns injuries to one of Foligno or Hall is significant) Locked up Pasta 8 years $90 million ($11.25 AAV)
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Mentioned this yesterday, but models still struggling exactly where the sfc low develops and strengthens tonight. That's having an impact on whether we see more east/west track. Regardless though, I think the idea of the primary remaining strong is gaining merit.
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I wish COD had point-and-click soundings for the HRRR. TT is stuck at 33 hours
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Yeah I'll be watching that while watching hokey. I'm a bit skeptical as to whether it will play out as advertised though. I think that large Slight risk tomorrow is a bit aggressive as well. That Artificial Intelligence severe weather tool that gets tossed around like candy now (I forget what it is) kind of drives me nuts.
