weatherwiz

I'm going to learn how to write Python, get a job at NCEP, and then write code that will eliminate model snow maps from the face of the Earth

What a sounding near BDL. Time to start sounding the alarms!!!

This jet streak is absolutely insane for end of October...hell, that's on the wild side for winter. Going to be some incredible lift with this

the older version did (at least in like the boundary layer area)...the new version had a horrific cold bias...think it was really bad two years ago when it came out though there was some improvement last year. Not sure if any improvement had been done with it though. I want to say yes the GFS was hitting ice potential hard in OK/northern TX for several days and seems to be pretty accurate. I know last year it would go crazy with icing events

I was wondering whether the GFS cold bias is still a thing, but the position/strength of that high plus the track of the sfc low would certainly lock in some pretty impressive llvl cold. Would also be one helluva fronto band...may even be able to get some pretty decent dynamic cooling too...and down to the sfc.

oh shit...the spider is alive...someone please send help

Nice...I'm actually glad to hear this. I sort of cringe when I think about what most structures around here can withstand in terms of winds My house will be the only one standing when a cat 3 or higher rips through.

Same here...typically you see just one or maybe two types of spiders but I've had to see about 4 or 5 different types. The worst is in the bathroom. There isn't a single day that I don't see a spider...and sometimes multiple. There has to be a nest somewhere just not sure where. My guess is where the hot water heater is. I did find a dead baby mouse in front of the hot water heater too the other day...wonder if a spider got it

Those scare me more than spiders actually LOL. I had one crawl on my face once. I was talking with my friend who is real good with identifying spiders (only other person I know who is good is Will) and I said I am shocked at some of the spiders I've seen here since we don't have a basement and he was saying that could be why...they have nowhere to hide. I wouldn't think the area I'm in would be prone to these big spiders inside...typical house spider, daddy longlegs...sure but I've seen a fishing spider and now a wolf spider. If this was at night I would not be able to sleep.

I want to look into getting a house built and it has to have these capabilities; 1) Withstand winds up to 200 mph 2) Spider proof...I don't care what has to be done or if I need to take out a $1,000,000 loan to make it happen. I'll get the foundation sprayed once a week...and whoever builds is going to make sure there are ZERO cracks and zero ways for spiders to enter. That should be possible...I don't see how it can't. Spiders that big should also not be here in Windsor Locks...let alone inside a house. This is the second time I've seen one this big....that's two times too many. IDK what's going on but this needs to be investigated. I hope it's not climate change related. Wolf spiders inside of a house...if you live in the woods sure BUT THIS ISN"T THE FOOKING WOODS. Fishing spider and now wolf spider...this is bullshit.

I think there is a wolf spider on my kitchen floor. I threw this thing over it. I think the kitty got it though b/c it’s not moving. I’m so scared

Not a bad looking line

Slight risk introduced for tomorrow up north!

Probably a good call. It's a fairly strong HP and pretty big

I think the WAR ridge will be key. Obviously things can change as we move through the cool season but this look in the Atlantic right now isn't very comforting. Models have also really struggled with Atlantic ridging the past few years and I think moreso this summer and that could be a culprit of the lack of cross-country flights. I do recall though some research into +SSTA's around Greenland correlating to a greater chance for a -NAO but of course there are other factors to consider. I'm curious as to whether the smoke from the wildfires in the West will have an influence on the stratosphere? I saw some rumblings about that but I have no knowledge in this aspect. It also looks like we could be heading towards a "basin wide" or "central Pacific" (or whatever you want to call it) La Nina.

Hopefully it will be more exciting than last winter. But I'm real curious about this winter. If the theme of establishing a ridge in the West holds at least through a good part of winter I would think that would bode well for us...but if the SE ridge becomes established we could get an omega like setup so then it becomes a question of where the trough axis is positioned. I really wish I had more time (and knowledge) to explore long-range forecasting. I used to be super, super into it but time is just not there...and my methods for "research" suck and are too time consuming lol.

Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol

the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again.

The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break.

Monday good drop some decent rain into southwestern CT. Probably going to be a huge cut-off between the heavier rain and virtually nothing with the HP to the north. Monday looks pretty chilly too and breezy

Actually looks like we'll see two different lines (similar to Wednesday as well) but only one line will be the main producer. The main producing line will drop into upstate NY and northern VT/NH. The second line may fire (still in upstate NY) just a bit further south (towards the capital region again?)...this may not traverse as far of a distance but may produce a small, but very concentrated area of wind damage.

Yeah would be nice to see something. One thing I don't particularly like though is it seems that timing of the s/w trough has slowed a bit. The other day there was perfect timing on just about all pieces/ingredients. There may be some displacement here...but still may look good for upstate NY and extreme northern New England.

ahhh great point...I didn't even consider about low-dewpoint derecho. But I also do believe the distance criteria is probably standard throughout...although given how this went to the coast I would say this met criteria.

looks like there was a confirmed tornado in NY yesterday

Forecast models are in agreement in very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with a plume of EML air will traverse the region on Saturday. During the afternoon yet another vigorous shortwave trough is set to eject into northern New England. This will be associated with yet another potent mid-level and low-level jet with a max passing right through northern/central New England. At the surface, temperatures should push well into the 60's to lower 70's across northern New England with mid-to-upper 70's across southern New England. There are some uncertainties regarding moisture return, however, dewpoints may push into the 50's or even lower 60's. This, combined with the very steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to more than enough CAPE to fuel convective development. Strong heating should also promote very steep low-level lapse rates. Given the above, the potential exists on Saturday for one or multiple squall lines to propagate through NY and northern/central New England. Given the signals for widespread damaging winds, a serial derecho is possible. There is also the potential for brief tornadoes with any initial discrete cells or embedded within the squall line.