weatherwiz

IMO, it would result in big power issues. Obviously the shoreline is still cooked, but even the GFS has continued to tick colder with the BL in response to the increasing dynamics and heavier banding. We don't need 6...7...8''+ of snow for problems. Anyone getting 4-6'' is going to have problems and in this solution, 4-6'' is extremely reasonable for many.

I'm thinking that if CT is going to get pounded there will have to be some dealing with the dry slot. Dry slot is a product of the developing mlvl center's which happens right over us, but once they're east...the CCB gives us Hershey kisses from the sky

How do you not like this?

Wow GFS...some slot issues in CT but that's going to be solid. And it is also a tick colder

Agreed...only need about 4'' of wet snow to get concerns and that is very plausible for the valley.

12z NAM bufkit BDL Paste city pounding for some time.

Yup...it totally can happen, that's why it's just not good to throw away or discard any solution right now. I wonder if there is research or literature out there regarding these scenarios. It does seem the past few years we've seemed to be robbed more times then not with these "convective low". I'm sure though the mid and upper-level dynamics play a significant role in whether the convective low becomes the dominant one or not.

Bingo...I posted something similar last night (or maybe it was earlier this morning, who knows anymore). But it seemed like there was one supercell the HRRR/Euro were latching on to and going wonkers with the associated vorticity. It's not like there is expected to be a tremendous amount of convection...enough anyways to make me believe that this will becoming dominant with an east tug

We're certainly fighting time, no doubt.

If the NAM is going to score a coup...this would be the setup. Not saying that happens, but I don't think it can be discounted. My reasoning for this is just based on the upper-level dynamics. Everything you'd want to see for a big hit is there. I mean, we've had setups where mid-levels were great before but we will got screwed, but I'll take my luck any day with mid-level dynamics. If this was a scenario where they looked like crap...I'd be going more conservative the the Patriots offense

Can't ask for better.

That's an isothermal deck crusher. Also look how unstable around the DGZ!!

Hello (this is somewhere around Hartford or maybe north)

Guessing what happens is H7 develops and tracks across southern CT and then the system becomes more stacked off to the East and this is when you see the precip shield blossom and looks to be a hefty band developing across eastern NY, CT, and MA. Kind of sucks because the HRRR def wanted to be colder but once the dynamics meh for a bit we bump back up some degrees.

It did seem a tick colder and then it went to screwing us

HRRR looking a tic colder back this way

Yeah this is certainly going to be fun to watch unfold. I am thinking there will certainly be positive busts across Connecticut. I know when looking at a product like bufkit it's just going to be reflective of the model, but when you're talking about a location like BDL or even HFD, in the valley, and looking for a screw job...I would expect to see some different looks then what bufkit is offering. It's really just going to come down to the CCB and whether we get it to move across the state...if that happens we're all golden.

Unfortunately there is no bufkit location for dxr (dumb) and nothing relatively close. Closest would be HPN but I think that's bit too far southwest to be a good proxy. there probably would be dry slot concerns across much of CT for a time (GFS verbatim) but it seems like H7 would evolve in a nature which would get CT with good banding. I'm also noticing too that even on point-and-click soundings (plus bufkit profile locations), that soundings are colder then model 2M output.

Closet bufkit location is Waterbury, but it does rip there for some time

Even down in Connecticut, when you look at soundings and bufkit, it seems to paint a better picture then what the snow maps are advertising. Both NAM/GFS get BDL down to like 32-33 late overnight and then crank.

Oh man the GFS bufkit at ORH is unreal. 50-60 units of omega into the DGZ. Ratios skyrocket too...they would pile up like crazy. Don't be standing outside with a golf club in this

northern stream currently digging pretty beautifully. Greatest convection is deep across the Southeast right along the frontal zone. We'll just have to see how convection evolves (within the southern stream off the mid-Atlantic coast) later today. But FWIW, despite the differences at the sfc, the Euro mid-level evolution isn't bad at all.

weathermodels seems to be down ughhh

Or how about some Euro H5 evolutions to see what the hell is going on.

Here is 6z bufkit at BDL. Ratios aren't bad under the band (about what I was thinking under the band).