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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. I am a bit boggled though. I mean looking at mesoanalysis in the morning it was advertising as much as 150+ 3km CAPE advancing ahead of the front with 2-6km lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM and DCAPE values were 400-500 J...who knows...maybe they just focus on their HREF products and whatever probs they spit out lol
  2. The last product I recall looking at from them was an MCD out in NY that said "a few severe gusts possible"
  3. they did go to slight? Jeez a little late to the game. When I hopped on the computer at 6 AM and started looking I thought it was pretty obvious it was going to be a decent day...now I didn't expect it to be THAT crazy but I was shocked there wasn't an upgrade to slight.
  4. It would be interesting to know if; 1) the SPC wanted watches but local offices said no 2) Local offices wanted a watch but SPC said no 3) Both sides said no
  5. should add though the threat this time may be slightly north
  6. going to fire up a thread in a little bit but Saturday looks pretty potent if enough CAPE can be generated. In fact, could be more intense than yesterday
  7. I always forget but I am not sure if the distance requirement is the same for the classification of each type (serial, progressive, and hybrid). I think the criteria may be a bit more loose for serial derechos.
  8. Pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/3km lapse rates. Couple that with a LLJ max moving overhead with a vigorous s/w moving through...viola!
  9. Kinda surprised BDL reported 64 mph. Didn’t really seem like it. I guess though there might have been a very brief burst. Have to watch video and see if I can spot it
  10. As mine gets further removed from radar it will “look like” it’s weakening
  11. Damn...70-80 mph only a few thousand feet off the ground. About to get rocked at BDL!!
  12. That is a very healthy looking line. Actually a bit more lightning than I even anticipated but there is quite a bit of llvl CAPE associated with it too
  13. yeah LCL's are super high...but looks like we see a swath of rather high effective SRH move through later on...shear is certainly there. there is enough llvl CAPE to at least peak the idea I think.
  14. HRRR for ORH and BDL...about as strong of a wind signal as you'll see here BDL
  15. Low probability for a tornado across central MA I think too
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