I am a bit boggled though. I mean looking at mesoanalysis in the morning it was advertising as much as 150+ 3km CAPE advancing ahead of the front with 2-6km lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM and DCAPE values were 400-500 J...who knows...maybe they just focus on their HREF products and whatever probs they spit out lol
they did go to slight? Jeez a little late to the game. When I hopped on the computer at 6 AM and started looking I thought it was pretty obvious it was going to be a decent day...now I didn't expect it to be THAT crazy but I was shocked there wasn't an upgrade to slight.
It would be interesting to know if;
1) the SPC wanted watches but local offices said no
2) Local offices wanted a watch but SPC said no
3) Both sides said no
going to fire up a thread in a little bit but Saturday looks pretty potent if enough CAPE can be generated. In fact, could be more intense than yesterday
I always forget but I am not sure if the distance requirement is the same for the classification of each type (serial, progressive, and hybrid). I think the criteria may be a bit more loose for serial derechos.
Kinda surprised BDL reported 64 mph. Didn’t really seem like it. I guess though there might have been a very brief burst. Have to watch video and see if I can spot it
That is a very healthy looking line. Actually a bit more lightning than I even anticipated but there is quite a bit of llvl CAPE associated with it too
yeah LCL's are super high...but looks like we see a swath of rather high effective SRH move through later on...shear is certainly there. there is enough llvl CAPE to at least peak the idea I think.