weatherwiz

system not deepen so rapidly. It winds up very quickly so you're wrapping the cold air all the way around into the core and essentially cutting off warm/moist inflow. But for CT I would like to see the 700 low closing off south of LI and moving NE...it closes off near the Cape. South of /LI and tracking NE would get the band over us.

But if the NAM/3k didn't occlude so fast I think much of CT would be destroyed given mid-levels but the occlusion happens so quickly the CCB kinda of fizzles before the best goodies can get overhead

At least for the valley, I think it's just becoming too apparent we aren't going to overcome the torched BL. Even some of the more dynamical outputs we really struggle. But it's so freaking close. I guess it's not totally impossible for a tick 1-2F down tomorrow but idk

It occludes so quickly the warm/moist inflow is cut-off. This is something you'll end up seeing I think given the consistency with this aspect so I don't think this storm is going to be as prolonged as some anticipate

That is some serious dynamic cooling

Let's say this is more like 33F at the sfc...there is going to be serious power issues and tree damage

It's definitely a better look but holy crap is that warm. That's definitely a flag, but it would probably be more concerning if we see these BL temps continue into tomorrow's guidance.

The convection the models are chasing doesn't appear to be all that impressive. Here's a look at it from the HRRR but even on the other guidance it doesn't appear to be a well organized area of convection. It's almost like the models are just riding one massive supercell and going bonkers.

Pretty soon the next ten day potential will be a severe thread

Thanks... yes, it is embarrassing my concept and grasp of topography and how to incorporate that exactly on a map

Obviously never witnessed in person, but the videos that come out of there are insane. They'll close long stretches of highways in that stuff b/c it's way too dangerous.

Spent the past few hours typing away at the blog. Updated forecast. these are the changes from my map yesterday Added a 20-30'' contour within the Berkshires where orographic enhancement combined with the greatest ratios will occur. 18-24'' contour was reduced to 16-20''. 12-18'' contour was adjusted to 12-16'' and also pushed farther east through Litchfield County, CT, far northwestern New Haven County, CT, and far western Hartford County, CT to account for the higher elevation and higher totals. 6-12'' contour was adjusted to 8-12''. 3-6'' contour was adjusted to 4-8'' and this contour brought higher into the Connecticut Valley to reflect subsidence concerns. 2-4'' contour for the Connecticut shoreline with a 1-3'' contour added in eastern Massachusetts.

I still love the blizzard warnings in the Dakotas for 2-3'' of snow with 60 mph winds...now that's a blizzard haha (ground blizzard anyways)

This may go into what Oceanst was saying earlier, but I think any low with convection is going to be weak and the shortwave energy is overdone...so a scenario of a capture and better blossoming of the storm as a whole. WE'RE GETTING BURRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

I'm still going to be on the bullish side. Working on an updated forecast but don't think I'll make drastic changes. I may lower totals a bit though for each zone (so 18-24'' down to 16-20'' and 12-18'' down to 10-16'' etc). I'll take the luck with the mid-levels...the mid-levels are hard to ignore. I know we've been screwed before where we had great mid-levels and got screwed, but more times then not, this will supersede. Regarding the chasing of convection, I feel confident in saying that idea is not going to happen. The degree of convection doesn't appear to be that widespread or intense.

GFS is major dryslot issues in CT with that H7 track/evolution initially but I would think CT still gets hit with the CBB as it develops. Ughhhh this is going to be so close

I find this a little odd looking more closely. I would think the best fronto should be much farther northwest. Now of course it's going to be strongest where the horizontal temperature gradient increases over time which this is where the model focus that.

It's all going to come down to banding. If we can get banding to traverse or even pivot over Connecticut. we'll certainly see higher end totals.

One thing to watch regarding deform is early on it's possible the band is much farther northwest then models currently indicate, however, as the storm strengthens and wraps up deform will collapse southeast just northwest of the low. This is something that could be a benefit to most if that occurs.

Yeah the continue move in that direction is not good. Still seems like a pretty solid event with power issues, but nothing near historic potential

the dual low structure is really screwing up. Just looked at H7 low and after seeing that and how it evolves and where it closes you would think CT would be in a pretty prime spot. Another big issue which has been very consistent is occlusion happening too early. Now...that doesn't mean this won't be a massive storm, but is critical when talking about historic prospective.

Pretty big pounding ORH county into NE Mass (though don't "like" the dry air involved)

Just a verbatim assessment, but the 18z NAM I think is a big caution for Connecticut, except perhaps eastern Connecticut. Doesn't seem like we get the best mid-level goodies here...looks like subsidence issues too. Not saying I believe that, but just an assessment.

I wonder how much the ongoing convection across the Southeast is going to affect 18z/0z guidance with respect to the southern stream and associated vorticity

Great info to know, thanks!