weatherwiz

Happy first severe weather day of the season

hmm water temps probably colder in March over December...maybe that's the reason?

Yup. Not sure how much this has changed with the new climo period but I at least remember BDL used to average more in March than December.

I could be wrong on this and this doesn't apply for the top-tier above-average winters, but for the most part most locations probably go into March near or below-average in terms of snowfall. Many climo sites still average several-pus inches of snowfall during the month of March and maybe an inch or two in April (though this could have changed over the past decade).

Winter is done. It's time for you to transition to Mets losing mode

I know It is certainly very early for severe weather here, but this isn't a typical SNE severe setup. Anytime you get an elevated mixed-layer or steep mid-level lapse rates involved this raises the bar a bit.

THREAD MADE!!! Time to kick off severe season wooohooooo

Potent shortwave will be moving from the western Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley region into the Northeast through the day Saturday along with some elevated mixed-layer air. While surface temperatures will be rather cool, the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates (>7 C/KM) will contribute to MUCAPE values potentially exceeding 1,000 J/KG to go along with strong mid-level shear. While the surface will be rather stable, just above the inversion parcels will be freely able to rise and rise vigorously thanks to the steep lapse rates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (including potential for multiple short-line segments) are likely to develop through the afternoon and evening. More robust updrafts will be capable of producing large hail. SEVERE SEASON IS HERE!!!!!!!!!

There could be some pretty decent elevated convection tomorrow night for sure

We are one month away from the GFS getting into the start of severe season!

Will there ever be a day or time when computer models initialize much more quickly? I would think it would be possible, just a matter of computing power? I love the time change back to DT but it sucks the models initialize later.

Very nice here in Springfield!

That's why I'm not all that enthused down this way for much in the way of accumulations outside of the NW Hills. I think probably much of, if not, all of CT ends up seeing some frozen precipitation but the duration will be too brief. A big question of sleet vs. snow too which would have at least some impact on travel/road conditions.

That sucks they don't do balloon launches from CHH anymore. OKX though could shatter the daily record and all-time record for 500mb winds measured but the issue is the jet streak moves overhead between balloon launches

You would think large-scale lift should be enough for copious amounts of QPF. I don't think I've seen this posted anywhere but this 500 jet may be the strongest I've ever seen (or certainly up there).

Outside of the Litchfield Hills I think it's going to be very tough to see much in the way of accumulating snow across Connecticut. Litchfield Hills, especially far northwest Connecticut may get pounded on though. But outside of the hills, while the llvl airmass is quite cold 700mb temperatures are very marginal and the DGZ is quite high (though they do quickly crash) but it seems the window for establishing a favorable thermal profile for snow is very thin. Majority of any frozen precip may be more sleet than snow. But with this said...we could see 1-2'' of sleet which would not be good. This is very tough forecast here.

And there is going to be a crap load of it too

Me: “this storm can’t keep tracking east” Storm:

I am barricading myself inside. I don't know why they have to come during the middle of severe weather season. How am I supposed to chase with spiders falling out of the sky?

yes...that was it. Junior year. That was so much fun

Had that happen one year in high school. It was right around the time of the near-Thanksgiving storm. 2004? Schools were getting out half day and by the time we got out we already had like 4'' of snow and roads were terrible.

Berkshires would be a good bet. That's probably where snow ratios ~10:1 are most likely. Even down this way in any heavier banding...10:1 ratios may be a bit tough to come by. I'm hedging 8:1...maybe 9:1 in any heavier banding and then less outside of it. However, if the 18z NAM is onto something that will be very wrong. 10:1 ratios would be pretty common I would think with maybe 12:1 to 13:1 in the Berks

18z NAM comes in with some pretty good fronto. Just hopefully we'll be able to generate much of this lift into the DGZ to really maximize the snow growth and the snowfall rates. Poking through some Connecticut soundings it might be a little tough to fully maximize this but there's still some pretty good lift getting into the DGZ at times.

Seems odd the GFS isn't a bit more robust. That's a pretty nice jet streak up to our north which should promote favorable large-scale lift. Should be further enhanced too with the llvl N-S temp gradient. Looks like GFS may be a tad stingier with some drier air aloft?

Newtown/Danbury/Ridgefield area is one great example of this. Learned that real quick at school