This also highlights parts of NE MA tomorrow. Dry air might be too much to overcome but decent overlap of ingredients for something to work with if it can form
hmm this targets a bit farther southeast then I was thinking. But at least the NAM anyways develops the strongest CAPE across SNE. Shear profiles are impressive with some good turning across the region too.
ehhh I was hoping there would be some room for some storms in SE NH or NE MA tomorrow but going to be too dry aloft I think. Though models do peg some QPF...but certainly enough that can validate chasing. THE SHIT SHOW CONTINUES
It would be more like $40. I have a near full tan of gas and get just under 40 mpg on highway but leaning against going towards Scranton tomorrow. Maybe go towards southern CT during the evening and try to get some lightning with stuff late evening
I will be assessing models in my bathroom with my head in the toilet. If I'm not happy with what I see I will continuously flush until my scrawny, slender, fragile body is sucked into the pipes of hell.
I could see an upgrade to a slight risk across parts of the mid-Atlantic north into southeastern PA and southwestern NJ. Not sure though this would be worth driving 5-6 hours for. Scranton is doable (a bit under 4 hours). Actually, I'm wondering if we could see some nocturnal elevated convection move through here late evening/overnight, especially southern Connecticut. that would be fun.
Wednesday has some supercell potential.
Not totally surprised. biggest question tomorrow is instability. Might be better farther south but with weaker dynamics. Leaning towards going to Scranton in the morning