weatherwiz

Kocin-Uccellini

I am ashamed to say I don’t have the KU books about Northeast Winter Storms (though I always wanted). Well…after this storm I realized I need them so I just bought both volumes!!! I spent all of my life obsessed and studying severe weather but it’s time to change. I mean how many big severe weather events have we really gotten to study? I want to shift my focus towards mesoscale evolution during big winter storms…but first have to 10000% percent understand mid/upper levels.

Same…this really gets me to watch to switch gears and do some studying/research into winter storms. When it comes to these biggies it seems like at the end of the day mesoscale processes and processes which evolve as the storm is evolution end up having much more of a factor than how the entire structure of the storm is evolving (I guess unless you’re talking about a perfect and clean phase and capture but at the end of the day…how often does that ever really happen). At least for myself, this was a tremendous experience in the forecast/communication process. Obviously from the get-go I was incredibly aggressive (which I had my reasons for). But at the end of the day, if it’s mesoscale and evolution processes…it’s probably best to wait until the final second to really go balls to the wall. It can be communicated prior that extreme amounts are possible but don’t forecast it. One big concern I had too (even prior to making a forecast) was the low bombing out so quickly and so far south all the goods would be confined to bands and we would see more banded structures. With that, it’s almost impossible to know where they will traverse until the mesoscale evolutions are known.

I think in this storm the DGZ is rather low but it’s crazy deep. Always get caught with going too crazy ratios outside of banding…gotta remember this next time. Gotcha thanks. That makes the most sense.

I’m starting to hate these super cold thermals set ups. I feel like unless you’re outside of the band the snow growth is just putrid. Is that b/c the DGZ is just so shallow or more if a product of the lack of sufficient lift into the DGZ?

Just crazy b/c that 700 low is in a prime spot. This system is just so tilted...very weird though to see mid levels closing off in such a tilted system

yup and 700 fronto being tugged with it. just getting onto the computer looking through everything. time to declare me forecast a bust (outside of eastern CT). This is why I stocked up on the alcohol

my guess is it’s because the 700 low is beginning to tighten up so it’s confining closer to the fronto as opposed to just being northwest…but what you’re saying also could be a contributor as well

Yes

No the SPC meso analysis

Should get heavy bank g back to BDL

This does look a bit more impressive than what’s being modeled. This is going ti be super close

I’m just going to give myself a swirly now. I was hoping for at least a foot and a half. Stupid dual low Convective robbing piece of crap. Convection fooks us in winter but nowhere to be found in summer. One more period then bed. Why even wake up tomorrow? Bull****

Did it not upload? I did the radar capture of RadarScope and saved video and uploaded.

IMG_8028.MOV

A few but not all

This shall start to provide us real clues! (Hopefully)

Let’s watch the kinks with the isobars

Should get some hefty snows back towards central CT with this

maybe the dual low was fake...maybe everyone was just drunk already and seeing double

solid 700mb fronto for sure down there

Bought this for tomorrow. Hoping it brings good luck. I’m in Springfield so would think I can get into some banding but hoping CT gets crushed. Going to pop one in the shower tomorrow assuming the pounding is hard

I can’t consume alcohol until 9:00 PM EST as that’s when the Bruins play but if the 0z models are east I am going to give my self a swirly in the toilet every time I have to pee and do it AFTER I pee

So freaking bizarre. I mean when you look at this you would think big snows well west into CT

Ahhhh the 24-hour out complete shift. I think we all figured some tick east but I think some of this 12z stuff is a bit too aggressive. IMO, we'll see some correction back west in subsequent model runs but we're legit getting into nowcasting and looking at live-data.