weatherwiz

Looks like more members on the 0z model intensity guidance are into cat 4 now disclaimer: I'm a beer deep into a 9.5% that I LOVE so I could be seeing things

A friend sent me this last night...I gotta watch it!

Model Intensity Guidance has been rather concerning since this thing was even a little tickle. Lots of members into the Cat 4 guidance. I would think if Ian avoids Cuba all together or just skirts the western edge higher intensity would be rather likely.

I'm not sure if we'll be able to muster up enough low-level instability to get any couplets to tighten sufficiently. Although the potential for this is probably highest towards the coast where dewpoints could be 3-4°F higher. One thing I do like though is how the storm mode looks to be on the discrete side. Cells will be moving rather quickly too. If any storm could straddle the warm front there would be enhanced shear to work with but you'll still need sufficient CAPE in the lowest few km for anything to tighten.

I wonder if it's worth starting a severe thread for tomorrow. I say yes

There's the Marginal Risk for tomorrow!!!!

Looks like some strong overnight/early AM storms across SE CT, RI, and SE MA EDIT: Sunday night into Monday

More rain and storms late Sunday/early Monday!

No wonder everyone's lawns are dead

drought lol

This is why it's great to switch tilts and also have tools where we can see the storm in a 3D view (like with GR lvl 2) to get an idea of how high up the strongest dbz are located. In these setups or situations where you have extremely heavy rainfall rates, if you're looking at radar and its showing like 45-50+ dbz but the core of those dbz are in the lowest 5,000 feet or so it's predominately going to be super heavy rain. But if you're seeing good cores (50 dbz+) extending close to 10,000 feet and higher...that's when you're getting a damn good storm with wind/hail.

Three things to focus on: 1) How steep do 2-6km lapse rates becoming 2) Pretty strong LLJ across eastern sections. 30-40 knots at 925mb. 3) DCAPE values 600-800 J/KG Thinking we see some wind damage for sure across eastern areas

You folk are weird

Dynamics FTW

Might be some small hail over West Haven per CC

Thunder!!!

Of course I go to Branford today and where I am in Springfield is about to get NAILED

Actually timing slowed down to the point to where eastern sections may have a chance for some svr Thursday

At least we'll be able to muster some elevated convection with hopefully a good light show

I did issue a photo-genetic shelf cloud watch this morning! Beautiful p

In New Britain and fun stuff! Heavy rain, feel any, thunder, lightning, and windy!!! I saw the shelf cloud from behind.

These are some pretty vigorous early season troughs digging into the Great Lakes/Northeast. 500mb jet streaks pushing +2 to +3 SD's with each trough.

Should see widespread 40-50 mph gusts in this circled area later today. Of course I have to go south and best threat is north…it’s always stupid, fooking, north. North, north north. I hate north

I'm issuing a photo-geneic shelf cloud watch for later today. Should see some pretty spectacular structures. Have to watch how steep the low-level lapse rates get today (particularly 2-6km). Could also see some 40-50 mph gusts within the strongest cores along the leading edge. If llvl winds were stronger we would have a higher wind damage threat...but steep llvl lapse rates will help some.

A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday and across New England early Thursday. Ahead of this trough a warm front lifts across the Northeast ushering in higher theta-e air characterized by dewpoints climbing well into the 60's. This will help contribute to an unstable low-level airmass across the region. Very strong jet dynamics will also overspread the region with a 50-60+ knots of wind at 500mb along with a jet streak of 80-90 knots placing the region in the right front quadrant. This will help contribute to bulk shear values in the 40-60 knot range (and even higher off to the West). A plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates will move across the region during the afternoon, however, it appears this plume will move off the coast and weaken prior to the overnight period (boooooooooooooooo). Regardless mid-level lapse rates may be in the 6-6.5 C/KM during the overnight. Despite being overnight these lapse rates combined high low-level theta-e air should contribute to sufficient instability to aid in thunderstorm develop and aid in the sustaining of thunderstorms across the region. All in all the potential exists for a fairly robust and widespread severe weather event stretching from New York/Pennsylvania during the daytime and across New England during the late evening and overnight. Damaging winds will be the greatest concern, however, hail would also be a possibility and there could even be the potential for a few QLCS embedded tornadoes. The biggest question mark right now is there may be a bit of a disconnect between the upper-level trough and sfc cold front.