weatherwiz

It was a terrible summer. At least the Pats have started and the Bruins start pre-season games in like 10-games and regular season in about a month. Celtics should be exciting again but I can't stomach to watch the NBA anymore...I just get the updates on my phone.

hmmm I should get some time to do some more stuff with this in a bit and I'll see if I have the same issues. I'm hoping to re-upload all the GIFs with the corrections today too.

Definitely is intriguing. Looks in the vicinity of where the velocity couplet was.

Do you have CC with that? Looking from BOX for any brief TDS

Wow yeah that’s solid

At BDL! Nice CGs in the distance

Starting to see development along the southern fringe!!!! Environment over CT...1500 J of MLCAPE + 50 knots effective shear plus the approaching ML speed max. Headed to BDL ASAP then going to check on the kitties in South Windsor from there.

yes..well north unfortunately. I'm headed towards BDL myself soon to check on my girlfriends boss' kitties. Probably headed towards Amherst area. Noting TCU though on the southern fringe so hopefully more cells build.

This is going to end up being the one. Should become a nice wind producer with perhaps some hail. Already getting that look for wind

600-800 J of hail CAPE too. Any storm that can have a mature enough updraft should be able to drop some hail.

This moving into a environment with 1500 MLCAPE and good shear. Someone’s going to have some fun

Ton of blue here now out ahead of the goods in New York. Knock, knock Who's there? Blue. blue who? BLUE SKY BABY!!!!

And another next Tuesday severe threat...potentially with STEEP lapse rates and very strong shear!!! I'm loving these Tuesday threats Maybe September is the new May

I have a weird feeling I may see hail later.

Mid-level lapse rates I think are better than what SPC is indicating in the 1630z update (unless they meant to say OKX instead of ALB) but the 12z ALB sounding measured 6.4 C/KM 700-500mb lapse rate and mesoanalysis indicate this. Not sure I would classify 6-6.5 as poor. llvl lapse rates suck. From northern CT through MA into VT/NH looks pretty solid.

It's all coming together beautifully

WATCH POSSIBLE HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Mesoscale Discussion 1781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Areas affected...Eastern NY...Western New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131558Z - 131800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over eastern New York and western New England. The strongest cells may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Trends will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving across eastern NY/PA. Dewpoints ahead of the front remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s within the Hudson Valley and areas eastward. Considerable cloud cover in this region has limited daytime heating thus far, but temperatures are slowly warming through the 70s, yielding MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to form in this environment, but thus far have shown limited intensity. Forecast soundings show modest low-level flow and rather weak lapse rates. This suggests that updraft strength will remain generally limited. However, some potential exists for intensification by mid-afternoon as continued moist influx and daytime heating occurs. Locally damaging winds and hail are the main threats with the strongest cells. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance later this afternoon. ..Hart.. 09/13/2022

may see a waterspout turned TOR on Martha's Vineyard or Nantucket in the next few hours

It's mostly cloudy but there's been a lot of thinning and brightening going on over the past hour. Sun is shinning through now. Just taking time to erode the low-level clouds

I think guidance was predominately mostly cloudy but had some partly sunny during the afternoon. I guess if anything maybe we're clearing a bit more quickly. We'll see if it has any impact on temperatures. Days like today with such rich llvl moisture an extra degree or two on temperatures can give a decent boost to CAPE. Wouldn't be shocked if maybe we can pull off a 2000 MLCAPE contour

Should get some decent heating too today. Maybe a bit moreso than models indicated.

Pretty good agreement for upwards of 1500 J/KG of MLCAPE to develop today with ~150J of 3km CAPE. Effective shear 35-45 knots too which is perfect...certainly not weak and not overly strong. And this is my favorite...beautiful mlvl speed max rotating in

Looks to work out just as the thinking was a week ago. Should see multiple line segments or clusters develop this afternoon with damaging wind potential. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them produce a decent little path of wind damage. Looks like we destabilize quite well today with more than sufficient/strengthening shear.

I love when these threats sniffed out 7 days out continue to be on radar the potential day of

Well it's also more of the fact that there always seems to be hedge towards the extreme (above-average) and always some justification as to why...or anything that can point towards such an outcome. Even as little as a month or so ago revised forecasts were still calling for above-average activity. And this can go beyond tropical too.