weatherwiz

glad we don't live there

That trough actually amplifies a bit nicely as it moves into New England...even GFS gets ~-15C 500 temps overnight. Should be some decent moisture convergence too. Shear not terrible so maybe some small hailers

Should be scattered t'storms later afternoon through the overnight...maybe even quite numerous

This is a sig worthy post. This also may be my favorite post of all time.

Man...this is one hell of an AFD https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MTR&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Just read about it on wiki...incredibly interesting!

It’s cold

90!!!!!! Let’s go. May tack on two more Wednesday and Thursday. That would get us within 1.

maybe we'll get a labor day 98 to plow through the region and make up for the boring summer

First half of the week will be a refresher but boom. Maybe we can get some dying convection on Monday.

12z euro too wanting to throw some heat our way. If BDL falls one shy of the record I demand every day that hit 89 be reanalyzed...maybe someone forgot to round.

despite the boring wx there temperature gradients are certainly intriguing and I'm sure quite challenging at times. the entire west may engulf in flames by next week

One problem is we will continue to struggle with pushing any meaningful cold fronts through here. Given what is being advertised on the Euro and GFS we would see a plume of anomalously warm 850 temperatures push well into Canada and southeast Canada and then right into our region...almost similar to I think what happened in June...(just w/o the cut-off to the south). There offers potential to get a solid NW flow down the road...sure sun angle is decreasing but a downslope flow with dry ground at favorable areas are going to torch.

I disagree with that to an extent. In fact, you could argue pattern becomes even more critical. Late June and July..we bang bang out 90 "relatively easy"...you don't need that crazy anomalous pattern or airmass...earlier than that and later than that it likely need it more. The look on the pattern (at least through the end of the month offers a much higher potential for heat against average or below-average. With the strength of the western and WAR ridge's there is plenty of room and window to pinch heat into our region. We have to solely rely on troughs to dig in and for some actual cold fronts to move through. Maybe perhaps some weaknesses develop within the WAR but as long as it stays that developed it's going to take numerous trough ejections and fronts to really weaken in.

guhhhhh BDL got to 89...let's see if they can tack on that extra degree.

You know...may need one of those suckers (either in ATL or PAC) to do that.

BDL up to 87!

@dendrite you've been warned

I think signals are increasing we tack on at least another two days towards the end of next week. signal for a trough is becoming less...looks more like a de-amplifying trough with a nice westerly mid-level flow.

I think so. Today would be #36?

BDL jumped to 84 last hour...thought perhaps they could do 85 or even 86. Assuming another 4F increase next hour that gets to 88 with another few hours of peak heating. Think 90 is well within reach

Really starting to crank in the EPAC

BDL was 80 last ob but looks like they should get into some strong heating soon so I would expect a decent jump in the next hour.

I think we do have a shot to break the record. It's going to come down to how well established any troughing to our northwest becomes. There is still a very strong signal moving forward for the western ridge and western-Atlantic ridge to significantly dominate the pattern regime across the country. However, there are also signals for more potent troughs/cold fronts to show their face in our region. I just wouldn't rule it out yet b/c there are signals for some heat to sneak into our area towards the end of next week. With how dry it is all we really need is a favorable wind direction and a pinch of the heat ridge to break off and move overhead.

Thanks. I wanted to say it was 2018. If I remember correctly, we got those last few days earlier in August? I also think June had more 90F days too...I know this year I think June had like one or two? July set a record I think with 20.