weatherwiz

I think a few years ago BDL made a run into the 30's...I want to we may even be slightly ahead of that year too. But BDL will definitely have to hit 90 today to probably have a chance. Of course it's 7-days out but there is a window to sneak some heat in here towards the end of next week and next weekend. Could be a big difference too between NNE and SNE in terms of temps.

If shear didn't look overly strong the GoM could be of interest moving into next weekend.

Josephine was never a threat to the eastern U.S. Outside of Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands just mostly fish fun.

Certainly could be a factor with northeasterly winds.

Oakland is one of those locations where one side of town can bake while the other side of town is like 10-15F cooler? I guess any time there would be a wind component off the bay or ocean you can forget a torch. I'm guessing a NW wind would mean less marine taint for them? I remember a while back trying to use mixing heights/bufkit to see if that provided better accuracy with temp forecasting but I remember the GFS always going crazy mix happy there and would constantly result in temperatures well into the 80's. I also wouldn't think OAK is a location that mixes very well so I've wanted to look more into if using 925mb temps could give a solid idea (to gauge the airmass in place)? Also see NAM MOS has 96 today while GFS 86 (although 3-HR high on NAM is 91). They even pulled off the 90 yesterday with partly sunny skies.

Has anyone in here ever done forecasting for the bay area in CA (Oakland, San Jose)? MOS can be pretty trash out there with temperatures...especially in anomalously warm patterns. For example, NAM/GFS had mid 70's there yesterday and they got to 90. I've tried to do a little digging into OAK and see if perhaps wind direction could be a huge influence but I didn't really find anything striking though the research was rather loose.

This is excellent advice!

Good luck! I always struggle with the notion of is it better to pay off bills or perhaps invest. I've tried to do alot of research into this and I really haven't found any conclusive evidence towards which is better. What my thinking has leaned towards is if you can pay down or pay off as many bills/debt as possible now that opens up even more room for investing down the road and also opens up much more money for yourself down the road. Others have stated...just pay the minimum on all your bills and live life lol.

ahhh thank you. This actually rings some bells now...I took accounting and several personal finance courses in high school (actually considered majoring in accounting/meteorology lol) and loved it. I now remember a discussion we had with my teachers and clearly remember him saying some accounts are financial advisors. I will look into one!

That was the reason why I wasn't completely sure of an accountant b/c it's not really tax related and was I think thinking perhaps more of a financial advisor

That's what I was initially thinking but wasn't sure if perhaps an accountant was too much above what I was looking for but it makes sense. I'll start looking around.

Random question but would your bank be the appropriate institution to contact to schedule like financial consulting/advisor (if that's the proper terms). Or what would be an appropriate party to contact? Or would you seek out someone? I have this system but for some reason something just doesn't add up and I can't figure it out for the life of me. Basically would be a person you lay out all your expenses too and provide your income, etc.

I would say Monday could sneak 90 at BDL but looks like we may see a more NE or a more easterly component to the wind. And for the end of next week let's just settle this before we have to read through pages or argument. For SNE it could be rather hot towards the end of next week and we could pump in some lower 90's...NNE would be a completely different story. So... if you live in NNE...yes refreshing or whatever word you want to use that isn't "hot" if you live in SNE...may not be done with the heat and with BDL having a shot to hit 90 today and tomorrow the record could be in jeopardy towards the end of next week

Great post...very well stated on all points. I completely agree too regarding forecast pattern/Isaias. Several days out it was obvious the synoptic pattern was going to be one to favor a track up the east coast. I know we've both talked about this several times but when you see that type of pattern...you can certainly start and raise awareness and emphasis the significance of the pattern. If the pattern looks like crap...99.999% of of the time you can write it off. And this is what pisses me off about weenies on social media...anytime a tropical system emerges you always get posts about "having to watch in SNE"...even though there is zero pattern support. It's crap like that too which lowers people's guard. The other big player here with Isaias when Ryan pointed out beautifully was the orientation of the ULJ and the strength of the ULJ...that alone right there was a huge indicator this system was not going to weaken and could even slightly strengthen. We definitely would need a very fast moving system to maintain intensity. Now...that's also a terrible thing. Some may think that a fast moving system is a savior but in fact, it's just the opposite. What made the hurricane of 38 so destructive was it's forward speed...not sure many realize how much a fast moving system enhances the wind. You don't need 12-hours of high winds to produce significant damage...let's look at MO/IL/IN yesterday with the derecho. Minutes of winds 70-80-90+ is going to produce significant and widespread damage...especially in our region where trees are weak and building codes aren't much (except maybe for newer buildings).

This setup I think drew alot of attention away from Isaias up this way. Obviously Sunday wasn't going to be a widespread severe weather day or even be a widespread t'storm day. It was just if one storm developed, the chances of producing a tornado were on the higher side...and that's exactly what happened. It's extremely challenging trying to convey impacts for separate weather events when they're so close together. OTOH though...seeing what happened scares me. It goes to show how little warning time we may have if the big one comes. I would tend to think that we would certainly have an idea several days out...at least enough of an idea to spread the word, however, and this is the scariest part, that is not going to be a guarantee...there is going to be that "maybe" or "possibility"...when people hear those words or uncertainties, more often than not they're going to blow it off. But the time we would be 100% certain...it would be way too late to take the appropriate measures. Let's look at Isaias from another perspective...obviously there wasn't any guidance having this storm take off and strengthen off the Carolina or southeast coast...however, that window of opportunity was there and we've seen in the past how quickly these things can turn into monsters in that region. It tried too...it really did. If there was probably a window of another 6-12 hours before landfall it may have strengthened...and by quite a bit. I remember Monday night watching just before landfall and started to get an uneasy feeling (maybe it wasn't Monday night...maybe late afternoon) but it looked like it was starting to get its act together in a hurry. This is what scares me b/c you get a storm...even if its only a TS in that area...you just never know. It's like a system in the GoM...I never trust those.

Looks like things are worsening a bit in Spain

ORD gusted to 54 knots and I think MDW gusted to 63 knots

there are so many embedded mesos in that derecho. Crazy part is...straight line wind damage is probably far worse than tornadic damage in this situation

Any guess as to where it tracked?

went from I think marginal at 6z to enhanced at 13z then moderate at 1630z. Chicago virtually went from marginal > ENH > MOD

and just to think they were only in marginal this morning

want to see no tree left standing

I think the derecho is the one doing the chasing

I think I would honestly rather chase in IA than OK