weatherwiz

I know it's early but I can wait to check out some 12z GFS bufkit profiles. Betting we see like -60 to -70 units of omega popping...hopefully well into the DGZ

Agreed...and IIRC that was something that was overlooked heading into the storm. There was so much focus on what looked great that many flags were missed.

Absolutely...that's pretty much a given I think. Some are going to get screwed compared to some around them.

It's actually not uncommon to see two bands unfold in major storms like this. And they can be a forecast killer (in both directions) b/c you can get some serious subsidence between the two. In some cases the two bands will even consolidate and all hell just breaks lose under it

The degree of dynamic cooling is jaw dropping on this. The distance between like +11C to +12C and -13C to -14C (talking 850 temps) is very small.

Historic snowfall rates are probable if this verified.

Looks like +11C or s at the core The moisture inflow into the CCB is going to be ridiculous

Super close. May be pretty solid eastern CT. 700 pops just a bit too late for western/central CT to probably get into the CCB goods

I would agree with that.

Faster timing/scenario is plausible at this time.

I could see that happening. Seems like more times than not we see timing sped up as we get closer...especially with no block in place. You can see the NAM probably hedging in that direction.

Not only a bit more west but also stronger (higher heights pushing slightly more north.

Looks much better (favorable) with the ridging into the West and is slightly further west with the trough axis into the Gulf Coast. Would probably continue to see amplification too based on the jet. Still have a developing jet steak on the western side of the trough axis.

Hopefully some of the recent changes in direction are not a product of starting to get better sampling (which would be not so good news) but the notable differences in the structures of just about everything...ridging in the West, evolution of the southern shortwave, the trough, and also the ULJ across the region is a bit concerning right now. We're not talking about subtle changes either.

The differences in short-term between the NAM/GFS have been insane...and not just here but throughout the country. Finally there seems to be some agreement on that but even yesterday morning the NAM/GFS were worlds apart on that system. It's been that way with just about every weather system this winter across the country.

both the shortwaves of interest are within the domain

Not the storm but watching how the NAM starts to handle the evolution of the pattern across the eastern Pacific and western U.S. is certainly in range. When there is storm potential we spend so much time focusing on the U.S. domain when in reality the domain of focus should be shifted much farther west to incorporate the Pacific. For example, models have been really been building the ridging into the western U.S. moving into Wednesday...well the processes and evolution of that is really starting over the Pacific now so understanding how the models are handling what's occurring over the Pacific may yield big clues.

It's insane...not just differences with the strength of the ridge but orientation too. The pattern over the Pacific is quite chaotic. Probably need to get that resolved before anything else

Still seeing significant differences regarding the ridging in the West. Rather sizable differences too. Obviously it's the NAM towards the end of it's range but that too is vastly different with the ridge and the run-to-run differences between Euro/GFS yield the same scenario.

by the time one finally finishes reading it the storm will be over

Don't need to name every storm but that could be left for bigger events. At least TWC does have a criteria for doing so.

Too be fair...there is actually value in naming winter storms but IMO that should come from NOAA. I'm not opposed to TWC doing it, but the issue is you get many different outlets which do it (such as local news) and the same storm can have different names. but it terms of communication purposes (if you're forecasting for multiple geographic areas or have a large client-base if you're in the private sector) it actually provides tremendous value, especially if it's a storm that will impact a large geographic area or multiple regions (cross country storm, for example).

Had some talks with Ray on f5. Was debating between that and weatherbell but I'm going f5. (I just hope John Cena doesn't misinterpret this).

it's very slow. I think it became popular when it was first created b/c it was cheap but there's been hardly any enhancements since then. The graphics are not great, it's not very user-friendly, and it doesn't even have a ton of products. Like for the Euro and winter products all it has is MSLP + precip type, wind chill stuff, and stupid snow maps.

ahhh thank you! I checked in model lab before and I have zero clue why I wouldn't click on EPS global cyclones I'm trying to get f5model lab soon...I liked weathermodels at first but it's pretty lackluster really. And poorly organized.