weatherwiz

12z GFS Bufkit for EWR supports 100

Can’t wait to go outside in a bit and paint and soak in all this heat/humidity. Painting the outside of a door and some trim and the area is shaded so don’t think the heat will impact the paint b/c there is no direct sun on the area. I just want to soak in the heat and humidity.

Taylor Swift has her own brand thermometer? Cool

Very well said. Part of being lured into extreme weather phenomena also has to deal with communicating such. That's why anyone involved in weather forecasting has the responsibility of warning others. We want to see extreme weather events, but we don't want to see damage to property and we don't want to see deaths. Unfortunately, those are going to happen, but there is a responsibility to warn people and provide them with as much guidance as possible so they can take measures to 1) protect their lives and their families lives and 2) protect their property.

I don't think this could be stated or explained any more perfectly than this.

While the overall debate is a worthy debate, the notion of debating to try and classify one weather phenomena as "better" than the other is ridiculous. And the debate of trying to justify the like and desire for a particular type of weather is ridiculous. Every type of weather phenomena has it's own risk. There are some phenomena which have a greater lead time in awareness and warning which reduces the risk for injuries and death - should an individual take the proper guidance they are given. For example, let's say winter storms had the same lead time as thunderstorms - deaths from winter storms would probably be quite staggering. In fact, we probably see a glimpse of how bad it could be with snow squalls (not just locally but look at what happens across other areas of the country - massive interstate pileups which can bring about big death totals).

Monday could be similar to yesterday except perhaps a bit more widespread. Bulk shear looks to be extremely impressive. As per the usual, mid-level lapse rates are quite garbage but this will be offset a bit by the very buoyant low-level airmass which will be in place. LCL's will be rather high but given the lack of stronger forcing (which has positives and negatives) we could be looking at several supercells possible.

There is alot that needs to be taken into account when comparing all of those weather phenomena. When it comes to phenomena such as a winter storm or hurricane there is typically tremendous lead time to start preparations. Like Scott said, when it comes to winter and people driving like idiots...well that's something to factor too. Phenomena such as thunderstorms, flooding, and tornadoes the lead time isn't as great (and for obvious reasons). Of the deaths (relating to say lightning, tornadoes, wind damage) the question becomes what kind of actions did the individual take or what kind of guidance was provided by group leaders in settings involving large groups of people? For the most part, a majority of weather-related deaths can be avoided. Of course there are exceptions. anyways...that is a sad and truly heart-breaking story.

ughhh that's devastating

They still had signs flashing on the Mass Pike like at 6:30 saying, “be alert tornado warning”. WEREN’T EVEN CLOSE TO THE TORNADO WARNING. but it was exciting to see

Yes

Definitely need to keep an eye on these as they move into the valley with sfc winds backed a bit

It's also possible the HRRR may be overstating it

Have to go to Boston anyways for my girlfriend's neurology appointment.

HRRR has been pretty consistent with some decent activity in Connecticut. You can tell though how the lack of forcing is a bit problem because it doesn't really sustain the activity. Good CAPE and decent lapse rates help get things going but lacking the forcing to keep everything going. Kinda like pulse-type but not necessarily as shear is sufficient.

If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it.

Yup that really is the biggest blemish today

That's what I'm thinking...but I have to convince my girlfriend to go too

Might be able to chase tomorrow. Have to bring my girlfriend to Boston for a neurology appointment which is at 2:45.

I wonder if we can muster up some supercells tomorrow. The lack of stronger forcing will work to limit storm coverage (which would increase potential for supercells) but on the other hand, the very weak forcing will make it difficult for supercell structures to probably become mature and sustaining. With this I think we'll see a few very nasty cells tomorrow afternoon. I may take back my prediction of an enhanced risk...not sure the potential is widespread enough (wind damage) to warrant it (except in Maine).

NBM picked up on this yesterday...although I don't think it was as extreme with a 110-130 direction but I do recall the NBM going in the 170-180 direction.

I would throw money into that bet as well.

Sunday could be a decent severe potential

Might be a shot in the dark but I wonder if the Gulf of Mexico has influenced this as well. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been above-average and also warming even earlier. This could explain why we've seen some stretches the past decade where we're getting some relatively high dews earlier on in the season. It might not be that far-fetched of a thought...the Gulf of Mexico has a significant influence east of the Mississippi.

This While I agree that our warming is contributed to warmer overnight lows there is actually strong influence by a warming ocean on this. If you think about it, a warmer ocean yields greater low-level moisture. This is one reason why I think we've seen an increase in cool season severe events (especially closer to the coast) the past several years. The warmer waters are yielding greater low-level moisture which in turn is yielding greater low-level instability. And with the warmer oceans and higher concentration of low-level moisture you're decreasing the efficiency of radiation. H20 is a stronger heat trapping gas than CO2. But yeah...this process will have a much stronger influence on nighttime as opposed to daytime. This is because H20/CO2 does not absorb shortwave radiation emitted by the Sun that well, but they do absorb longwave radiation emitted by the Earth very well. (Note: I know CO2 does...not sure if this is true for H20 as well. Don't remember).