weatherwiz

I literally have zero clue how I got through the math...I mean I did the majority of the math at community college so maybe I got off easier (though I did have to re-take Calc III b/c I got a D and couldn't transfer it). I thought Physics was a million times harder...that I have absolute zero clue how I passed considering I failed every single test (I think lab grades and extra credit helped). Like I completely could not grasp the concept of physics...drawing those diagrams didn't help me one bit lol. I did wish I understood the math/theoretical aspect of things much better. But yeah...following the right people here...you'll learn more about forecasting than you will in school and it's not even close. I agree...it's frustrating during any event when people start declaring bust...not only the board but social media. Then discussion just starts going downhill

I've learned a ton about tropical from you. I've honestly never really followed tropical or studied it so my knowledge is slim...I do follow Josh, Eric Webb, and a few others closely on Twitter when they discuss tropical so I've picked up on things but not nearly enough to where I have confidence discussing things. The only thing I really know is...it takes one helluva pattern to get one here and IDK if models show a hurricane striking 3-days out...if the pattern isn't supportive I'll write it off faster than a Trump bounced check. I'll never forget (3 years ago?) that hurricane models had hitting us...the one that fuji------ off the SE coast? One of my classmates needed new pants b/c he was going wild about it saying it was going to be a hit. It was like 3-days out, models showed it hitting and he said to me, "you still think it's going to be a miss?" I said, "yup". He said, "you're crazy" and ran out of the weather center saying he had to call and warm people...lol

That is rather puzzling. Given the wind direction yesterday, is it possible gusty outflow perhaps led to the strengthening of an inversion? Breaks of sun though would have certainly negated that though. Perhaps the difference had to do with the dewpoints? We were mid-70's down in CT which helped to create a great amount of low-level instability. One thing I just thought of but didn't look at yesterday was DCAPE. I've never thought about using this in these type of situations but I think it provides value. Here is DCAPE values at 16z yesterday. This is right around the time when winds started to ramp up in CT. One thing I've noticed over the years too is there is a disconnect between max DCAPE values and strongest winds with convection (differences in that you won't see max DCAPE coincide with strongest winds). I also think that the system evolved a little erratically...perhaps as a result of a transition to a more ET nature. But looking at the course of the H85 low, it actually kinda of elongates a little bit and I guess you could say "weaken". At first I thought maybe this tracked a bit farther east in the last few hours but I think the system overall just became a bit more elongated/tilted. This was happening as the LLJ max moved into CT so we maximized it, but it also began to shove the LLJ max farther east...which I think explains why even PVD got into some solid gusts. Here is 19z and you can see the MAX over CT Here is 21z. Based on this I would think the LLJ max is shunted east rather then going north into MA/northern New England

The core of the LLJ yesterday was also a bit more compact and on the narrow side. It really aligned rather well too with the dry slot. With dewpoints shooting into the mid-70's, temperatures ~80, and breaks of sun...it was the perfect recipe to draw down those strong winds. Let's be thankful those solutions of 80-100 knots at 850 didn't pan out...not that we mixed to 850 yesterday, but I'm sure 925 winds would have been 60-80 knots.

I wonder if anything touched down. Given how weak any tornado would have been though it would probably be impossible to differentiate between tornado damage and damage from convective winds...which can be a challenge during tropical systems. But we lucked out big time with the tornado potential yesterday. 200+ J of 3km CAPE with those shear values could have ended up pretty ugly. Just weren't able to generate a decent enough updraft to utilize it.

Has anyone used the ISU site for bufkit before? the PSU site has been having all kinda of issues. Was trying to load profiles into bufget from the ISU site, however, doesn't seem to work. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html

Friday looks like we could see quite a few downpours and thunderstorms

There may not be anyone else on TV who does as excellent of a job as Ryan does. Not only does he communicate potential extremely well but he has the gift of being able to toss in science/meteorology and explain it so easily. Not too mention how he handles live events...especially severe weather...being able to show and explain dual-pol radar on air.

This is serious an extremely scary thought. I think the scariest aspect of it is how the general public would respond to these communications.

Forecasts for this were 100% spot on. I don't think they could have been any better. You gotta put things into perspective...sure we get several 50-60 mph wind events a year...but just about all of them occur from fall - spring...when trees aren't fully leaved. When it became obvious how long we were going to be ripping 50-60+ mph gusts you knew we were in for some serious damage. Even an hour of 50-60+ mph gusts in the summer is going to do significant damage. All you have to do is picture what 50-60 mph t'storm gusts do...which last maybe a few minutes at most to understand what this was going to do.

What a journey home. Tons of trees down in Branford/North Branford. I usually always take back roads from Branford to North Branford to Wallingford and catch 91 there so I avoid 95. Debated on not doing that tonight in case roads were closed or power lines were down. anyways, I said screw it and did it. As I was driving I couldn’t believe the trees down/debris. I get to probably about a mile from the highway (of a 12-mile journey) and boom...tree across middle of road. So I had to turn around. Luckily, the detour wasn’t much...ended up turning down a side street I’ve always wondered where it led. Was basically just a tad longer loop to the highway. driving along 91 there were some downed trees along the highway. Getting into Windsor Locks...I was impressed by the 1.5 mile drive from highway to my house with the amount of trees/limbs down. Even a huge section without power. Saw a tree down upon entering the driveway to the complex and then this was in my neighbors yard

Went to the bathroom and looked in the mirror and saw the wind messed up my hair.

After that last post I made about the wind...BOOM completely died down

too big

man...you can kinda argue these winds are about as strong right now as it was during "peak" that was an impressive burst with a bit of longevity

yeah just had a pretty big gust. I even thought it would have started to calm down by now

yeah I'd keep an eye on the stuff as it moves towards you.

not sure if there were any reports of OTG but I have heard that there is the possibility around Middletown. A friend of mine was there and was in a parking lot and said something strange happened...like a sucking and he looked and leaves and water going up in the air. He said something about some guy getting sucked in and he had to pull him...IDK but another friend said on the news they mentioned something about a possible TOR in the area. Didn't hear anything from the HFD one...although with these winds tough to tell damage from an EF-0 and winds which swirl in these situations.

Is he outside with the chain saw?

quickly clearing in Branford

Wonder if he lost power.

Haven’t heard from Kevin in hours.

Just went outside at work and saw this

Forgetting the comparisons to Sandy/Irene this has been quite impressive. gotta put it into perspective. 1) an 80-100+ knot ULJ streak in early August is pretty damn impressive. Not going to see that all too often. With us in the entrance region of the jet that was going to help the storm maintain intensity. 2) Gusts 50-60 mph may not seem that impressive...but again...taking into perspective...this is August, not January. We see what 50-60 mph gusts do during t'storms. Trees are fully leaved. Over 300K w/o power in CT and continuing to climb 3) Not sure if we will get any confirmed tornadoes but the parameters we had in place for a tropical system...you don't see that often. 4) Getting breaks of sun too...during peak heating and with a LLJ cranking.

IIRC Sandy had the long sustained winds (25-35 mph) but i think for the most part the bigger gusts were held to the shoreline...this I think had higher gusts...also...Sandy happened late October when trees certainly didn't have the leaves they do now.I don't remember Sandy being overly big for winds inland...Irene OTOH I think was a bit more impressive inland.